Ask HN: What Makes AI a Bubble?
What I'm confused about though is what makes current AI evaluations a bubble.
Bubbles usually exists when future speculation outpaces productivity: eventually some realization leads the market to no longer believe in that future speculation, causing devaluation which triggers a mass sell-off.
However, AI companies currently have very high revenues and are growing extremely fast. Their valuation is backed by actual commerce. I can't imagine that there is any room for a bubble, as it is very clear where the market is at, and why demand for AI is so high.
Now, certain specific companies I can imagine losing a lot of valuation, but only contingent on the fact that they serve a middle-man role in the market that improvements in the underlying AI models will solve, which would likely only mean more revenue for the frontier labs, and thus less reason for a bubble.
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Yet, thanks to our times, at least one major company appears to be thought-bubbling. It appears to hope (if it's not just window-dressing) that fusion will suddenly appear in the next 2 years ... to avoid driving regional electric rates sky high.
Is it?
You're also ignoring the fact that these companies have been shifting things around to make their books look better than they actually are. Here's a good example explaining how META has been keeping debt and lease obligations off its books to fuel growth (and who's at risk if META doesn't pay up):
https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1soent7/if_the_ai_...
Is that revenue actually tied to something in the market, or is it just all of these companies and investors blowing air into the bubble?
Just because of an invention is useful and world changing doesn’t mean it won’t cause a bubble.
Airlines are a great example - they are everywhere, nobody can imagine life without them, and yet they are yet to make any money ! Maybe they will figure it out before oil runs out on planet Earth.
As for Buffett speach - ther is a specific quote about airlines in it: "If a capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk back in the early 1900s he should’ve shot Orville Wright"
This is not discussed publicly and is covered up for by raises, because there is growth and the hope that at some point the economics could work out. Which remains to be seen.
It's a variant on a Ponzi scheme. Investor hope is that at some point someone invents a way to stop losing money.
If at any point investors start to lose faith that this is going to be the case, the bubble pops.