OpenAI's Ad Business Is on Pace to Miss Its Own Forecast by 90%, Analyst Says

ArtTimeInvestor•36 minutes ago

    Emarketer’s data finds that standalone chatbots like ChatGPT,
    Microsoft Copilot app, Google AI Mode, and Amazon Alexa for
    Shopping (formerly Rufus) in U.S, will generate less than $1
    billion in ad revenue this year, and just $5.41 billion by 2030.

How would that be possible? In the past I used Google maybe 10 times a day with a short query. From which Google had to guess my intent. Now I babble with Gemini all day about everything. And Gemini can ask questions what exactly I mean. Why wouldn't Alphabet be able to generate more revenue from this than from search? And Google's ad revenue from search is over $100B per year.

Just because there are no ads now does not mean there never will be. Google search was run without ads for the first years too.

zpeti•9 minutes ago

Because writing a headline with 90% miss in it will get more clicks than actually thinking through business strategy and realistic projections.

ChicagoDave•15 minutes ago

Does anyone at OpenAI know how to run a business?

khoury•3 minutes ago

Sam Altman worked at the same incubator that runs this website.

moezd•about 1 hour ago

So, how do their overall financials look these days?

thg•30 minutes ago

Will Locket wrote about it last month: https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co/p/openai-is-in-a-far-wor...

tldr is: They either get a successful IPO to stave off bankruptcy for a couple more months, or they're going to be bankrupt by the beginning of next year.

xattt•14 minutes ago

Any particular preparations to do before this ship hits the sand?

rswail•31 minutes ago

Using "on pace to miss its own forecast" is a weird way of phrasing "OpenAI made it up to bullshit the rubes".

Not to mention that being "on pace" is usually a term that means "keeping pace with".

d--b•about 1 hour ago

What a shitty title.

“An analyst thinks OpenAI may miss its 2030 ad revenue target by 90%” is what the article says.

onetokeoverthe•about 1 hour ago

the ad business is dead and openai's brand is toxic.

dyauspitr•about 1 hour ago

The ad business will never die. It’s capitalisms air and water.

animuchan•33 minutes ago

True, but the current state of advertising is, charitably, kinda goofy.

I'm not surprised the iteration we're seeing now is perceived as failing: on the few remaining screens where ads are still present for me, they're between highly irrelevant to flat out repulsive. There are a few brands I will never touch with a long stick, purely as a result of their disturbing, disgusting ads -- again, charitably, a negative-sum game.

feverzsj•about 1 hour ago

People heavily relying on LLM literally live in a Truman show.

solid_fuel•about 1 hour ago

A simulacrum, simultaneously more detailed than the ones built by Meta and Instagram and Tik Tok, but even more shallow, without even the illusion of human connection.

An endless forest of mirrors reflecting no one but the user.

OpenAI's Ad Business Is on Pace to Miss Its Own Forecast by 90%, Analyst Says

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