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81% Positive

Analyzed from 3854 words in the discussion.

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#open#models#model#kimi#router#more#fable#don#source#weights

Discussion (171 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews

exabrial•32 minutes ago
The irony is the Chinese are being very democratic with their models, while the USA tries to do central control.

Glad to see centralized control fail on the grandest scale. Maybe we can learn a thing or two.

digdigdag•21 minutes ago
What you're seeing is the distilled (no pun intended) result of realpolitik at play. China's labs aren't as open as they are out of altruism, but rather to capitalize and undercut the monopoly held by U.S. competitors.
__float•17 minutes ago
They wanted capitalism, no? Here's the competition in the market.
Lalabadie•13 minutes ago
Yes, hah. Historically, the US got its moment to define for everyone what the rules of capitalism and globalization are, and China then played to win.
petilon•24 minutes ago
> Chinese are being very democratic with their models

They can afford to, assuming they distilled Fable, because that reduces their pre-training costs, doesn't it?

j-bos•6 minutes ago
They distilled Fable, in the couple weeks it was available?
jeanlucas•21 minutes ago
So if they paid for pre-training they would not be able to open their weights?
petilon•21 minutes ago
Not if they want to recoup their investment.
re-thc•18 minutes ago
> The irony is the Chinese are being

There's no irony. The problem is these generalizations and labelling that's hurting everyone. It's the wrong way to view China and maybe many other places.

Just like the definition of AI, the definition of democratic or not evolved long ago.

guessmyname•about 3 hours ago
Why SoTA (uppercase “T”) instead of SotA (lowercase “T”) ?

“State of [T]he Art” versus “State of [t]he Art”.

If not SotA then at least SOTA, which is more accurate.

sim04ful•about 3 hours ago
The pedantry of a HN comment is always a sight to see.
walrus01•26 minutes ago
Given the lack of tone and inflection in written content, it can be hard to tell the difference between doing a tongue in cheek imitation of pedantry and actual earnest pedantry, so let's try to assume the more charitable interpretation until we learn otherwise.

I'm sure that more than once we've all had something we wrote which was intended to be obviously taken in a satirical or intentionally nonsensical manner taken seriously by someone else on the internet.

_carbyau_•about 3 hours ago
Not wrong though. Technically correct and when it comes to communication, also seems like a reasonable query.

In a world of so many acronyms, details matter.

travisgriggs•about 1 hour ago
I’m overwhelmed by LLM/Agent signal on HN lately. I actually liked this question. It’s trite and whimsical, but frankly nice break.
theplumber•42 minutes ago
SOTA police
exabrial•34 minutes ago
its sota like it was a joke
lexandstuff•about 3 hours ago
It should be SotA.
jamesinmn•about 3 hours ago
Does that make DeepSeek V4 Flash MiniSotA? This dev in the Twin Cities would like to know.
monster_truck•23 minutes ago
I think they call it Minipop there
cozzyd•41 minutes ago
probably buckeye fans
pishpash•about 3 hours ago
An cross of SoT (source of truth) and SotA (state of the art). SotA looks weird, admittedly.
bee_rider•18 minutes ago
“SoTA” as “source of truth agent” would be a pretty annoying/funny acronym to unless upon the world.
skeledrew•about 3 hours ago
I suspect typo.
JSR_FDED•about 3 hours ago
Very interesting. They test Kimi K3 and Fable on a set of approx 1000 tasks grouped into 5 areas (SWE, Legal, etc).

They put a router model in front that predicts whether Kimi or Fable is going to give a better cost for a correct result. (They believe that ultimately such a router model should be continuously trained on your own workloads so it makes the best decisions for you).

Their router chose Kimi the majority of the time (72% in one category, all the way to 96% in another category), leading to cost savings in every category (from 1.5x to 50x depending).

crazylogger•about 2 hours ago
> Oracle routing is a method for measuring the best theoretical performance by running the task through each model and then picking the cheapest correct option (the cost/performance ceiling).

Their "router" is an oracle reference point where they choose the lower cost model after running both and therefore knowing who passed the test. The cost savings part is only Fireworks theorizing what would happen if an equivalent predicting router exists. That's a big if.

robthompson2018•about 2 hours ago
The way they published this is baffling to me... surely you can try to implement some router and then see how well it does. Using an Oracles makes the whole writeup so much less interesting.
Lalabadie•11 minutes ago
But then that becomes an article about the performance of your draft router. This one is about the fact that there's this level of optimization potential.
eli•about 3 hours ago
There are a bunch of routers like this eg https://openrouter.ai/openrouter/auto
hmokiguess•about 2 hours ago
What's the data governance and privacy controls on using Kimi K3 if I subscribe to their coding plans? I want to migrate away from Anthropic
cromka•about 2 hours ago
Need to wait until "western" providers start hosting it.
treesknees•about 1 hour ago
Why not link to the English version? It seems intentionally misleading.

https://www.kimi.com/user/agreement/userPrivacy?version=v2

recursivegirth•42 minutes ago
Why do that when you can do Sino bad?
luciana1u•about 3 hours ago
we put a router model in front of two other models so the router can decide which model is better at deciding things. next we'll need a router for the router and eventually the entire internet is just routers routing routers to other routers
jsphweid•6 minutes ago
It's all pipes, Jerry.
lubujackson•30 minutes ago
It's a series of tubes
algoth1•about 1 hour ago
It’s routers all the way down
techolic•about 1 hour ago
And the weights are just in the routers now? Love that idea.
binoct•about 1 hour ago
The weights are in the meat
rogerkirkness•about 1 hour ago
the weights are the bones
bjourne•8 minutes ago
I'm skeptical. According to arena.ai, Fable 5 dominates almost every category: https://arena.ai/leaderboard Kimi K3 has an edge in WebDev but struggles to reach top 10 in many other categories.
apatheticonion•about 3 hours ago
I love the Chinese models.

I use DeepSeek exclusively and now Kimi K3 offers a great planning assistant for more advanced coding tasks.

DeepSeek v4 Flash is extremely fast and is able to handle pretty much anything I've thrown at it (I use mostly Rust, PSQL, Angular and Terraform).

I self host Bifrost as my LLM gateway, though I wish LLM vendors would do monthly/daily automatic billing (like VPS providers do) rather than prepaid + auto-top up.

It's annoying maintaining a non-refundable minimum balance across vendors, I would rather be billed for my exact usage.

OpenRouter helps, but I don't really like it as a service and not a fan of the mark up.

dools•9 minutes ago
Yeah deepseek is my workhorse of choice these days, I mostly use pro because I do a lot of concurrent jobs so speed is less of a concern. When it falls over I change the model mid-chat to GPT5.5 and chuck a couple of tokens over to OpenAI and then once it's correctly found the problem I switch back to deepseek, keeping all the 5.5 analysis in context.

I have been a heavy user of k2.5/6 but they seem to have gotten slower and worse at their jobs (and the "engine overloaded" errors have increased ... ), and k3 spends a LOT of time thinking and doesn't produce noticeably better results. I do keep chucking some tasks over to moonshot every now and again to give it a chance. I figure they're under compute pressure and have probably quantised the models to cope temporarily.

But recently I've found myself mostly using deepseek v4 pro and gpt 5.5 when I need the big guns.

GLM 5.2 has been good at select tasks but really shit at others and given how sparingly I use GPT 5.5 I'm not that compelled to use it. I've yet to be impressed by any Google or Anthropic models!!

arikrahman•about 3 hours ago
The best part is using harnesses like reasonix or whale make cache hit at a rate close to 98%, making requests converge to practically free. And that's with unsubsidized American providers like cloudflare or Digital Ocean.
KronisLV•about 2 hours ago
In long form tasks, across multiple harnesses (Claude Code, OpenCode, Kimi Code, ZCode) my cache rates are typically 96-99%.

I don’t think that’s particularly out of the ordinary. Do people have different experiences with other harnesses? Which ones?

steve-atx-7600•21 minutes ago
How much time do you spend on your setup vs getting a lot of stuff shipped by paying for fabel 5? For me, not using the best model is a huge opportunity cost since my company can afford it.
mlazos•about 2 hours ago
How can you be hitting cache on what I think are novel LLM prompts …
oceansweep•about 2 hours ago
Not them but my understanding is that the harness will send a simple 'heartbeat' message to keep the cache 'warm', (see prefix caching: https://handbook.modular.com/inference-optimization/prefix-c... ) which can then be edited/changed, which does cause the user to incur a fee, but its much less than the amount they'd pay on a no-cache hit request.
verdverm•about 2 hours ago
multi turn sessions, they are typically in the high 90% hit rate across all providers without doing much of anything
Rzor•about 1 hour ago
Can you expand more on how you are using it?
sghiassy•about 2 hours ago
I’ve never used either of those tools. Do they work well?
skeledrew•about 2 hours ago
Prepaid means someone can't sign up, use a bunch of inference, then cancel their card and disappear into the sunset. VPS is a more long term investment where it's harder to switch and it doesn't cost the provider much if a few users jump out without paying for a month.
apatheticonion•about 2 hours ago
I do understand the reasoning for it, it still sucks as a user who is doing the right thing.
copperx•about 3 hours ago
What don't you like about the service, besides the mark up?
apatheticonion•about 2 hours ago
For me, the only utility OpenRouter gives me is billing consolidation - I don't really need the routing capabilities because I use Bifrost for that.

As a router, it's not very feature rich. For example I restricted the available models to the ones I want to use however the `/models` endpoint still lists all the models, making my LLM client list the 200+ models available on the service (even though they will throw an error if I try to use them).

With Bifrost, I can also create model aliases with custom configuration - for example I can create a model alias `deepseek-v4-flash-nothink` which disables thinking. I can create `deepseek-v4-flash-caveman` which injects the caveman skill (to save tokens) etc.

Plus I can contribute to Bifrost, which I can't do with OpenRouter.

robbiet480•about 2 hours ago
Did you look at LiteLLM at all? It seems fine but Bifrost looks interesting too.
schneehertz•about 2 hours ago
openrouter’s API has removed parameters specific to certain models, impairing model functionality.

For example, the image generation parameters of GPT-image-2 are largely ineffective.

ronsor•about 3 hours ago
Have you looked into OpenCode Zen or OpenCode Go?

https://opencode.ai/zen

criley2•4 minutes ago
Zen is nice, but they require US hosting so they don't get new Chinese models right away. There is no Kimi K3.

Go is nice for the ten minutes you can use it until your hit your cap.

samtp•about 3 hours ago
verdverm•about 2 hours ago
basically the same deal as OC Go, lending credence to token commodification
bellowsgulch•about 2 hours ago
> OpenRouter helps, but I don't really like it as a service and not a fan of the mark up.

You're right, I hate it when a business exists to make money. They should just provide their service for free. After all, anyone can build an OpenAI API compatible server that works with every major provider, and even build it using an LLM at that!

apatheticonion•12 minutes ago
It's more just the value for money. It doesn't really offer me anything valuable other than billing consolidation - and the markup is excessive for that use case.

If I was using the routing features it would make more sense - but they charge significantly more for that so the markup is really just for billing consolidation.

matheusmoreira•about 2 hours ago
That's incredible. Hope the chinese keep it up!
mattvr•about 3 hours ago
Anyone have routing harnesses like this describes with Claude Code? Or other good routing platform recommendations?

(yes, I know this article is about an oracle router)

pandinus•about 1 hour ago
There's this https://github.com/code-yeongyu/oh-my-openagent which implements the OP article's oracle pattern across 11 roles. Each role has a whole ranking of recommended LLMs across many providers. For example "Sisyphus (claude-opus-4-8 / kimi-k3 / glm-5 ) is your main orchestrator."
replatformradar•about 1 hour ago
If only you could run K3 locally that would be the magic bullet to make it a true magic bullet!
HDBaseT•about 1 hour ago
Until Kimi 4 comes out and you'd be like "if only you could run Kimi 4 locally"

Everyone wants the latest and greatest.

felipeerias•about 3 hours ago
Mythos/Fable was the state of the art back in March, if not earlier.
Aboutplants•41 minutes ago
So China is now only 4 months behind US frontier models now when the rule of thumb was 6 months just a little while ago.
softwaredoug•23 minutes ago
To be fair the lag varies tremendously. When Deepseek first came out it was competitive with frontier lab models at the time.
danny_codes•about 1 hour ago
It released in June..
broodbucket•21 minutes ago
To the public. Mythos has been in active use for quite a while.
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nharada•about 3 hours ago
Is there something specifically with Kimi that's better here? As far as I know Kimi pricing is about the same as Sonnet 5 -- what happens if you use that model and Fable instead? Or Grok 4.5 which is even cheaper?
DennisP•about 3 hours ago
The article says Kimi is better at some things than Fable. That's probably not true of Sonnet.
ralusek•about 3 hours ago
One benefit of an open source one is that you can, as a large corporation, run it "locally" within your own data center. Even fine tune it.
jrflo•about 3 hours ago
Hmmm, a company that hosts open models is telling us how good open models are...
JSR_FDED•about 3 hours ago
They share their methodology and results. I learned things about the relative strengths and weaknesses of Kimi and Fable I hadn’t seen anywhere else. Should being in the model hosting business disqualify them from sharing?
jrflo•about 2 hours ago
Doesn't disqualify them, but it may call into question their results seeing as they have a potential conflict of interest.
Avicebron•about 3 hours ago
People are allowed to say, "hey we make money off of this thing, it's cheaper and almost as good as the thing we can't money off".

Other people are allowed to call them on that.

mrinterweb•about 3 hours ago
The don't only host open weight models. Also, why not promote this. If Fireworks thinks this big news might convert some new business doesn't make it not true.
jrflo•about 2 hours ago
I'd be doing the same thing if I were them as a marketing move
30minAdayHN•about 3 hours ago
and in fact, it would be detrimental to business, if they wrongly promote Kimi, as they would pretty soon lose trust with their users
yogthos•about 3 hours ago
Anybody who's tried it knows that what they're saying is true though.
stingraycharles•about 3 hours ago
As always, benchmarks rarely paint the whole picture. It also seems like this article is somewhat biased, eg when Fable and Kimi are close but Fable wins it’s “dead heat”, but when Kimi wins it’s “Kimi wins”. GPT 5.6 seems to be missing as well.

I am really eager to give Kimi K3 a try, but I’ll reserve my judgement until I’ve worked with it for at least a few days.

rogerrogerr•about 3 hours ago
The apparent bias may be explainable as it’s not remarkable for OpenAI or Anthropic to be slightly ahead. It _is_ remarkable for an open weights model to be better than the closed models from the trillion dollar (allegedly) companies.
culi•about 3 hours ago
A third the cost, open source, and won't refuse every other request because of some vague possible connection to cybersecurity concerns.
wand3r•17 minutes ago
There is too much business risk in running on an American company. They can pull the model back or lobotimize it. No Alex Karp fan, but he was right: companies are worried about hyperscalers stealing their alpha. The lack of guardrails, data security and control really give these open models the edge. If you factor in that they appear to cost less, the hyperscalers are in big trouble. I don't see how this works out. Software was always supposed to be deflationary and collapse down to 0 marginal cost but this isn't remotely the case. It's truly amazing to see the state of open weight models
dgellow•about 3 hours ago
My questions about strawberries got blocked as too dangerous! I’m not joking
shikon7•about 3 hours ago
Strawberries are a well known weakness of LLMs, as they have a hard time to count the numbers of "r"s in them. Maybe that's why, because they fear that weakness could be exploited somehow.
HDBaseT•about 1 hour ago
Strawberries aren't the weakness, the weakness is the tokenization of a prompt. Any word with multiple duplicate characters is going to be troublesome for LLMs.
skeledrew•about 3 hours ago
Probably need to be taught by someone of Latino origin. Learning to roll them "r"s could help.
verdverm•about 2 hours ago
I always thought this should be easier by telling it to write each letter one a new line, then count, any token separator ought to suffice, so much so you'd think they'd have trained in this strategy given tokens make individual letters opaque
teaearlgraycold•about 2 hours ago
I asked about Tiananmen Square and it said it knew nothing about it. A real life “Doesn’t look like anything to me” moment.
bellowsgulch•about 2 hours ago
My God! You're practically a terrorist and should be on a watchlist! Who knows what you'll ask next? "Who is the surgeon to the boy?"
fnordpiglet•about 3 hours ago
Interestingly the reality of the open source release is they are opening up to full distillation by the closed source model providers at a deeper and more fundamental level. If anything the open sourcing will help Anthropic and open ai ladder up faster. Open source has always been about mutual cooperation towards a goal and has never closed the door to commercial success. All the hand wringing about open weight models putting closed providers at a disadvantage doesn’t get what working in the open actually does for commercial interests - it is like science in the open - it enables and lifts all boats. Likewise commercial success doesn’t close the opportunity for competition or more open source work - it’s the economy of activity and competition that matters overall. When things stagnate is when closer concerns turtle up and collude on not competing for each others turf.

The future is good and better for everyone the more work is in the open and the more work is in the commercial space. It’s good all around.

skeledrew•about 3 hours ago
The closed labs don't really benefit unless the open model has something extra they don't have though. Meanwhile the open model dilutes their customer base and seriously cheapens their offering (which is a heck of a good though IMO).
fnordpiglet•about 2 hours ago
Because the open model might have been distilled from outputs of the closed model doesn’t mean they are architecturally equivalent. There is almost certainly innovations in architecture present in the open models that the closed labs didn’t think of. It also is almost certainly true that they aren’t completely built out of a distilled corpus, that reinforcement is equivalent, etc. Therefore closed labs will also benefit from being able to inspect in totality the architecture, activations, weights, and be able to train against it at scale in an ensemble of other models and their internal work.

The only way there is no benefit would be is if the open models are literal copies of the closed model, which unless there was direct theft, is highly improbable.

linkregister•about 3 hours ago
I'm happy that Kimi K3 is indeed SotA and its open weights are due to be released soon.

It's also true that Moonshot and other labs distill from Claude. This has been reported on extensively. I don't think there's any alpha for Anthropic distilling from this model. I do not mean to discount the tremendous amount of innovation regarding MoE and quantization that Moonshot has accomplished. But its training with synthetic data is in large part from distillation from frontier labs.

fnordpiglet•about 2 hours ago
When I say distill I also mean mine it architecturally for insights but I doubt seriously the model training is entirely distillation of Claude, it’s almost certainly a mixture of both original corpus and reinforcement as well as distillation. I think it’s a little condescending to imply that these new open models are cheap ripoffs with nothing original to them. These teams and labs are top tier as well, working under unreasonable constraints imposed by the USG. That’s a powerful combination for creativity.
villish•about 3 hours ago
From the blog post moonshot refers to it as open source but only mentions releasing the weights.
culi•about 3 hours ago
So far all the Kimi models have open sourced their code, their weights, and published technical reports explaining their training methodology. I expect the Kimi K3 Technical Report will come out July 27 and they usually publish the code and the weights alongside that.
charcircuit•about 3 hours ago
The weights are the "source" of a model.
tadfisher•about 3 hours ago
If weights are the source for models then ELF binaries are the source for software.
villish•about 2 hours ago
I want to caution against this line of thinking. NSA's fast16 program silently altered data during nuclear simulations, and that is also possible within open weight models. There is no reason to think there is anything like that currently, it also cannot be dismissed. Open source would include the training data so you could create a similarly capable model.
dymk•about 3 hours ago
The weights are the output artifact, the training corpus and system are the source.
OutOfHere•about 3 hours ago
Or biology or chemistry.
SXX•about 2 hours ago
Or weapons manufacturing. It can refuse to answer on a lot of topics.
mikae1•about 3 hours ago
For regular chat users it's $19 while Claude is $20...
AlexErrant•about 3 hours ago
$20 users don't get access to Fable. It's $100+ tier only.
skeledrew•about 3 hours ago
I'm a $20 user and was given $100 extra usage credit today, "for Fable" (I'll be sticking to Sonnet and sometimes Opus TYVM).
theplumber•about 1 hour ago
What to do with $20 on Fable? One prompt or two ?
mikae1•about 3 hours ago
True. However, I believe most non-programmers don't need access to the fanciest model, but just want to use a good LLM without constant nagging about usage limits. Then 19 vs. 20 is true?
estearum•about 3 hours ago
hmm almost like the exact race-to-the-bottom + arms-race dynamic all the doomers have been warning about
andrewmutz•about 3 hours ago
One man's offensive penetration tool is another mans defensive tool. In the recent HuggingFace/OpenAI incident the safety controls stood in the way of the defenders, not the attackers:

https://www.thestack.technology/hugging-face-hacked-turned-t...

estearum•about 3 hours ago
You're presenting further evidence of lack of effective control over these systems as... a mitigating factor...?
toomuchtodo•about 3 hours ago
Race to the bottom for the investors, utility for the rest of us. The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed yet (Gibson).
skinfaxi•about 3 hours ago
Doom for whom?
estearum•about 3 hours ago
Well considering it was just a few months ago that OpenAI had the brilliant idea of connecting these systems to autonomously run an actual protein synthesis wetlab, very possibly all of us.
skybrian•about 2 hours ago
The article is about the best you could theoretically do with a perfect router. The takeaway is that trying to build a good router is worth doing. But it's unlikely to be a perfect router.
arjie•about 3 hours ago
Interesting. So the latest in the technology now is this model routing thing. Cursor estimated Composer + Fable works much better than Fable alone. And here K3 + Fable is supposedly better. Interesting.
johnhess•about 2 hours ago
Was this an out of sample test of the router or was it trained on these specific use cases/eval suites?
sbinnee•about 3 hours ago
Openrouter also features routing. Routing is indeed an option if you don’t need consistent behavior and allow switching models.
JSR_FDED•about 3 hours ago
It would only be inconsistent if the router chose different models for the same task.

Considering that of 89 terminal tasks there were 11 that only Kimi got right, and 7 only Fable - having a router gives significantly more consistent results if you define consistent to mean correct.

hawtads•about 3 hours ago
For model routers, do they have to retrain the routing model every time a new LLM is released?
cbhl•about 2 hours ago
I really like the idea behind OpenRouter's new auto-beta -- classify by task type, and then just follow what the market is using based on the last 7d. https://openrouter.ai/docs/guides/routing/routers/auto-route...
pishpash•about 3 hours ago
Maybe a continuous evaluation process, why is there anything to train?
Sphax•about 3 hours ago
what are my options if i want to use a router like this ? who provides one ?
mrinterweb•about 3 hours ago
Two that I use are:

* Openrouter.ai for a hosted router

* https://github.com/diegosouzapw/OmniRoute for a local router

platinumrad•about 3 hours ago
Oracle routing is by definition not possible.
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OutOfHere•about 3 hours ago
They forgot to compare and incorporate GPT-5.6-Sol.
lvl155•about 3 hours ago
It is not SOTA. Give me a break. Sure, run it on Cerebras to get speed but that’s pretty much its advantage.
hodgehog11•about 2 hours ago
Agreed. The benchmark closest to my experience is FrontierMath Tier 4. Fable and Sol (90%) are very far ahead of Kimi K3 (not even 40%). Kimi is trained heavily to basic agentic tasks, like all the other open models right now.
nozzlegear•about 2 hours ago
Why do you think it's not SOTA?
sergiotapia•about 2 hours ago
Cerebras does not share the quantization of the models so you don't know if you're getting real K3 or k3 lite or something else.
refulgentis•about 3 hours ago
AI written drivel by an inference provider, hyping an open model that isn’t open, otherwise the inference provider would be hosting it, and the inference provider also does not have this router they trumpet available, in any form.

I’d be amenable to it but I’m already aware of them lying about token throughout by 50-100% on AA and on Twitter, even when you get a dedicated server.

Just too much lying piled up to extend courtesy here, even though you’re my favorite open model provider. Please, get your house in order, and if the house is so big that marketing drove this set, ask them to slow down a bit and market things that people can actually use / you actually provide.

JSR_FDED•about 2 hours ago
> hyping an open model that isn’t open

Moonshot has committed to release it end of the month.

villish•about 2 hours ago
I'm not sure why you're so dismissive about this model. It isn't currently open, but it will be. It was slow when I used it so i'll give you that. There will be other providers with better performance.

My only gripe was that it takes a very long time to think. It's a good model otherwise.

Buttons840•about 3 hours ago
I have several thoughts about this, which I'll just iterate:

1) US export bans have made it so that Chinese companies have to compete using less-than-state-of-the-art hardware. This has forced Chinese companies to build more cost efficient models. Whereas, US companies have moreso tried to be state of the art by spending more money than anyone else on state-of-the-art hardware.

2) Xi Jinping has called for more open AI models (not to be confused with the closed models of OpenAI), and I'm happy to see a powerful world leader advocating for open-weight AI models. Whereas, the US seems likely to just ban models.

3) My impression is that, if China surpasses the US in AI development, there will basically be nothing that the US does better than the rest of the world--except for military spending--we spend a lot, but we don't necessarily spend well (something something Iran). I mean, if the US is no longer a tech leader in the world, like... what are we a leader at? Manufacturing? Healthcare? LOL. Are we a leader in any industry or by any metric? I wonder if China is attempting to remove the last jewel in the USA's crown with these AI releases.

4) It must be refreshing for companies to have access to a new model that isn't going to get pulled because the government bans it 2 days after release. And it's open-weight so it wont go away--amazing--what a shift in the market.

5) If it becomes clear that open-weight models are the future of AI, will that pop a huge bubble in the US economy? Maybe. But, on the other hand, these companies aren't just training AIs, they are also building data centers which will remain valuable no matter what happens.

Thorondor•about 2 hours ago
> My impression is that, if China surpasses the US in AI development, there will basically be nothing that the US does better than the rest of the world--except for military spending

This comment is stunningly out of touch. The US dominates finance (overwhelming lead in assets managed, stock market capitalization, trading volume, and basically every other metric); space launch (about 85% of all mass placed into orbit); medical devices (exports nearly 2x the second largest exporter); and pharmaceutical research (more active clinical trials than any other country, near-universally ranked as the top producer of major pharmaceutical innovations, world-leading survival rates on many cancer types). We are the world's leading producer of both oil and natural gas. We manufacture the world's most advanced jet engines, precision agricultural machinery, and measurement instruments. We design the world's most performant CPU's and GPU's. We film the most popular movies and record the most popular music. Despite having only 4% of the world's population, there is literally not a single major industry where the US is not a leading player.

There is no doubt that China is a serious threat to US global leadership, and they have already surpassed us in many areas. But that doesn't mean the US is behind overall. We still have a lot of strengths and we have every reason to hope for continued success in the 21st century.

cheesecakegood•44 minutes ago
I wouldn’t say “literally” every industry: stuff like clothing, shipbuilding, consumer electronics assembly, certain rare earth raw materials, all we have pretty little participation in. But these are as you point out the exceptions that prove the rule.
wnoise•about 2 hours ago
Don't forget pizza delivery.
lossolo•about 1 hour ago
Finance mostly true, space launch also true, cancer survival broadly true (with qualifications), oil and natural gas also true.

> (exports nearly 2x the second largest exporter)

Can you provide the source? In the WTO's broader medical goods category, Germany actually exported slightly more than the US in 2022 ($202.6 billion versus $189.6 billion), so such a huge difference in a few years?

> and pharmaceutical research

China accounted for approximately 44.2% of the 104 new molecules in 2025, compared with 26.9% for the U.S. and 15.4% for Europe.

The 2024 shares were approximately 34.6% for China, 30.9% for the U.S., and 22.2% for Europe.

> there is literally not a single major industry where the US is not a leading player.

I will just give 3 examples: China completed roughly 91% of the world’s shipbuilding tonnage in 2025, holds more than 80% of solar module manufacturing capacity and produces more than three quarters of global batteries.

xyzelement•about 2 hours ago
Fuck yeah!
shdh•about 3 hours ago
Implying that AI is the last jewel of the USA is too simplistic and ignorant.

People are paying for tokens, that will likely continue even if open weight wins.