The AI Bubble Explained

I nod along with Howey here on every point save one. Namely, it is simply false that the apocalyptic narratives are full-cloth marketing products that are cynically engineered and used.

For better or worse, the hold that Yudkowski-flavoured big-R Rationalism holds over us all is significant. Academics (like Cal Newport) seem committed to belittling it as a sort of cult-sex-flavoured philosophy fan fic, and writers (Zitron, Howey, Doctorow) seem equally committed to a cui-bueno wake-up-sheeple take.

But my position is: no matter how florid the polycule, or naive the argumental ligaments, or potentially lucrative the bezzle, it is still worthwhile taking the stated intellectual commitments of the people making the tech.

Take people seriously. And, unless you really, really, really know for certain that they are operating in bad faith, you are to regard yourself as stuck with their putative sincerity.

This is the "principle of charity" familiar from undergrad philosophy classes, and it is an epistemic moral value worth holding onto in 2026.

His four misconceptions:

AI is just doing math - While this is true, basically one could say that the brain is just doing math, too.

AI is going to kill us in ten years - Points out the incentives of the big AI companies to propagate this

AI is a bubble that’s about to pop - Financially it will pop, but AI is here to stay as a technology (like other technology bubbles)

Using AI is a betrayal to our human souls - It's just another tool to use

All these are pretty sane, in my opinion...

Expected anti-AI psychosis propaganda but was pleasantly surprised.

Why do people keep talking about circular financing? It’s hardly a drop in the ocean and doesn’t change the underlying financials. Is it 30% of revenue? 10%? Is it priced in the market? I think it’s around 5% of revenue and already priced. It’s a nothingburger.

Hugh Howey has converted to an AI booster. These are standard talking points that we hear here daily and hourly.

He is of course wrong in so many things: it is not exactly known how neurons work etc.

I must give AI that it could have written a better article than Howey. He should be careful what he is advocating for.