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Analyzed from 1735 words in the discussion.
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#usage#openai#anthropic#astra#subscription#opus#api#enough#plan#models
Discussion Sentiment
Analyzed from 1735 words in the discussion.
Trending Topics
Discussion (59 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews
or your money back?
So effectively 50% less usage.
Things sure change quickly. 2 months ago you had nigh infinite usage and Sol 5.6 was a significant step forward. Now they're behind in both models and usage, and Astra 6.1 is too dangerous to release or some such (or possibly got embarrassed by opus). What are they even going to show off on today's devday, is a clone of grokbot really that interesting?
It doesn't suffer the same verbosity issue and the writing is somewhat clearer.
The vision capabilities of Astra are a bit better I believe.
That said, Opus is 3x cheaper and the obvious winner when usage is considered.
Users dont use all the time the service so they compensate each-other with power users. So for now getting from users at least 36B/year making an estimate evaluation of 360B (other incomes included, evaluation goes up to near a trillion). Be happy team you are the only one that you made it, but is enough one mistake in this house of cards. Again struggling to understand this logic even though you have access to the best intelligence in the world...
The api margins are like 70%-90% (depending on who you ask, and not taking into account r&d), even lower with luna and their recent cuts. The subscription is even worse because they often use it as a loss leader for building hype at releases.
This is a risky strategy for OpenAI, and time will tell how will this work. But my hunch is that this is a catastrophic blunder.
I was listening to Dario's podcast where he was talking about how the entire game is in predicting extremely well how much compute you buy in advance, and if you miscalculate, it's pretty much over.
Looks like OpenAI miscalculated.
I'm not sure if compute alone is enough of a moat enough but so far that's how they have survived Anthropic's capture of the enterprise/professional market. Along with shitposting on X and playing Anthropic's unforced errors on developer relations, safety downgrades and data retention.
But I suspect OpenAI will have to make some hard decisions about de-prioritizing their consumer products, which is most of their current valuation?
The ppl paying the actual bills have all been exploring crappier models to reduce costs and I think that has been strongly communicated to OpenAI.
Edit: People who think this is death for OpenAI need to look at Anthropic’s revenue. It has flatlined. Stingy decision makers are a bigger risk to these companies than stingy consumers.
There were rumors of a model called "Astra Minor".
I expect they will release this today.
If it performs slightly better than Astra and, considering the subscription cut, is 1/4th the price, it could be competitive with Opus 5.5.
Opus 5.5 appears to be around 1/3rd the price of Astra with a subscription.
Will they even get their money back in 50 years at this point?
Genuine question, who has done the math on:
* how much investment they have gotten
* how much they need to make each year to give it back in X, Y years?
* how much they are currently making?
Is the end game one gigant megaAIcorp that you can't say no to? The chinese models seem to preclude that.
Have we collectively decided this a big game of investment-chicken, but of course we are smart enough to get out of it just before it crashes down?
You're right for Anthropic though, their 5x/20x is mostly for 5h limit.
That was the case for Anthropic from what I remember, with everyone being pissed off about misleading marketing.
For OpenAI:
https://learn.chatgpt.com/docs/pricing
https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2094254532020818191
> The Pro 20X is quite precisely 20X the usage of the Plus subscription, so it does exactly what it says on the tin.
I wonder how legal it is to change usage during a running subscription.
Legality is no concern for these magical companies. Money is of no object, laws do not apply, the return on investment must not be spoken.
They also no longer actively reset. The 20x subscription lasts a day. It is just a matter of time, before the consumer laws will catch up with these crooks.
With Astra 6.1 being delayed [1] then it'll be interesting to see what they offer today, otherwise it's Opus 5.5 until they get their stuff together
[1] https://gizmodo.com/openai-cancels-release-of-gpt-6-1-astra-...
My local Qwen 3.8 27B seems faster and more intelligent than new Luna.
It’s now going to be interesting how anthropic react - 5h limit and retain 15-20x $ value, or go the same was as OpenAI.
The thing is probably a Muse, and Grok Bot competitor.
The 20x plan right now lasts about 1 day and they're reducing it to half a day of usage?
But yeah, weird timing after a meh release and their competitor killing it right now.
In the end, the only thing that ultimately matters is how much total value are you getting each week. And Anthropic has been dominating OpenAI here for the past 2 months. Even with that 20x-but-really-2x thing.
So, so tired of living in this world full of people who lie and obfuscate at every possible turn. Just fucking say it - "we're cutting limits in half". Five words. Living slimeball.
Tibo and other big OAI social media accounts have built a real cult of personality over the last few months and it seems to be getting to their heads. Comrade minister of propaganda announcing that rations will be cut is not a good look. There is still time to save face here, apologize, and just tell the truth plainly (we are capacity constrained and have to make compromises). Preferably before he goes from serious eceleb to corporate lolcow.