U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

Any lawyers able to comment on the actual wording of the resolution? It kind of reads to me like in their effort to narrowly capture just prediction markets like Kalshi but not stock markets, they've perhaps unintentionally barred themselves from some other unintended things, too.

https://www.moreno.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/FIL...

>No Member of the Senate may enter into, or offer to enter into, an agreement, contract, or transaction that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of a specific event.

Kind of seems like Senators would now be barred from like getting home or life insurance and certain kinds of casino gambling. Or like, making an offer on a home that is rescindable upon a failed inspection?

Prediction markets have realized that they will lose potential customers if they don't prevent insider trading. Kalshi already has a policy banning politicians from trading. Presumably they understand this, so while I'm glad to see the rule, I wouldn't say it's that self-sacrificing.

So they can vote themselves out to do the right thing, and they purposefully allowing themselves to invest in the stock market with insider information. My cynicism tells me they are throwing this bone to divert attention from the stock market loophole

The real with prediction markets problem is that people can make bets, then alter outcomes to match those bets. This is a well-known issue in sports betting (e.g. taking a fall), and I don't see how we're going to prevent it for things that matter a whole lot more than sports.

good. and the restriction shouldn’t stop at U.S. Senators. anyone with a major influence in their field should be banned from using these prediction/betting apps. as an NBA fan, I was shocked when I saw the reports about Milwaukee star Giannis allegedly using Kalshi to “predict” his own future team during the last NBA trade deadline. how is that even allowed? he even went on to promote the prediction app the day after the trade deadline.

ANY government employee or government contract worker should be banned from trading on prediction markets.

Kalshi and its peers are legal because they’re commodity futures trading, not gambling.¹

Are senators not allow to buy any commodities futures now (it reads like it)?

¹I, and I think most reasonable people, think this is ridiculous - it’s obviously gambling in a trenchcoat, but that’s what they claim…

We've learned that these tools are only as effective as the tools of enforcement. A valid technique now available to us is to ban some activity that has valuable returns, then participate in it nonetheless, and simply not enforce action except against those of an opposing tribe. Presumably, violations of this ban simply lead to a hearing before an ethics committee staffed to lean towards the appropriate direction?

Still, it is something. Some chilling effect is better than none. While we do this, it is worthwhile to make prediction markets accessible to our opponents. Ideally, those in corrupt countries aligned against us should be leaking as much information through the markets to us and we should enrich them for it. I'd love to have this kind of distributed espionage with the largest number of bets being on the actions of those aligned against us.

I just can't understand how this prevents, say, the son -in-law of the president (totally unelected) going to negotiate for peace in Iran, while his brother in law is on the board of Polymarket and a strategic advisor to Kalshi.

This is going to ruin interesting conversations at their holiday dinners!

"Prediction market" sounds much better than online gambling.

What about friends, family, neighbors, and benefactors? Prediction markets should be illegal period.

Just prediction markets? They should be banned from all trading and active investing, period.

Prediction markets need to be banned entirely. It’s asinine that Kalshi and Polymarket are even a thing.

All of the other markets are prediction markets too, in terms of opportunities to profit from inside knowledge. This is like vowing to quit smoking ... Marlboros.

What about Senate staff?

How can you even trace it if they’re using crypto?

That's a good start, and should be followed by banning everyone else from trading on them.

Don't many already do something similar by insider trading on the stock market?

Maybe they didn't need more uncertainty in their portfolios.

Good - now do a ban on individual stock trading.

Good. Now they should also ban themselves from insider trading in both the public stock market and private markets as well as prediction markets.

Almost there...

Both for Senators and Representatives:

- Term limits (2 consecutive terms max) - No stock market participation in any form during office - No corporate or PAC contributions - Prison for lying to the public or during the course of their work (hearings, media, etc.) - Serious legal consequences for defamation or libel - No special medical/healthcare insurance, accounts or treatment - Pensions only bases on their own contributions, nothing else - No lifetime pensions or healthcare - This one is tough: Consequences for campaign promises not met (part of no lies) - Consequences for shutting down government - Serious consequences for not balancing the budget or driving meaningful reductions that will result in a balanced budget in short order - No media-related jobs for five years after leaving office - No book deals for five years after leaving office - No movie deals for five years after leaving office - No fancy office anything that costs more than your average Ikea/Walmart office furniture - Severe consequences for illicit enrichment; a bartender cannot come out of Congress a multi-millionaire, period.

In other words, like any real job by average citizens. They should not be a privileged and protected class.