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#code#cheap#more#software#cost#going#models#still#don#free
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Every jira ticket I see now has acceptance criteria, reproduction steps, and detailed information about why the ticket exists.
Every commit message now matches the repo style, and has detailed information about what's contained in the commit.
Every MR now has detailed information about what's being merged.
Every code base in the teams around me now has 70 to 90%+ code coverage.
Every line of code now comes with best practices baked in, helpful comments, and optimized hot paths.
I regularly ship four features at a time now across multiple projects.
The MCP has now automated away all of the drudgery of programming, from summarizing emails, to generating confluence documentation, to generating slide decks.
People keep screaming that tech debt is going to pile up, but I think it's going to be exactly the opposite. Software is going to pile up because developing it is now cheap.
Most code before llms sucked. Most projects I on-boarded to were a massive ball of undocumented spaghetti, written by humans. The floor has been raised significantly as to what bad code can even look like, and fixing issues is now basically free if your company is willing to shell out for tokens.
It still has nothing to do with software engineering. All good code was written by humans. AI took it, plagiarizes it, launders it and repackages it in a bloated form.
Whenever I look deeply at an AI plagiarized mess, it looks like it is 90% there but in reality it is only 50%. Fixing the mess takes longer than writing it oneself.
Your linter should identify all issues - including architectural and stylistic choices - and the AI agents will immediately repair them.
It's about 1000x faster than a human code at repairing its own mess.
Many people are missing the fact that LLMs allow ICs to start operating like managers.
You can manage 4 streams now. Within a couple years, you may be able to manage 10 streams like a typical manager does today.
IME, LLMs don't speed you up that much if 1) you're already an expert at what you're doing (inherently not scalable), 2) you're only working on one thing (doesn't make sense when you can manage multiple streams), or 3) doing something LLMs are particularly bad it (not many remaining coding tasks, but definitely still some).
The MCP has now automated away all of the drudgery of programming, from summarizing emails, to generating confluence documentation, to generating slide decks.
I wonder about the hallucination. Reading someone's writing doesn't take all that long.
Can that happen without you? I would assume this is the next step. I don't find it either good or bad, but I'm genuinely curious where this all goes.
You know this is the exact same thing said during Opus 4.6, right?
That makes it hard to believe because it's the same "last week's model was so much behind you can't even comprehend" meme that's been going on throughout last year.
More info dumped into tickets and projects is great for understanding for both people and LLM. But hopefully not LLM generated.
I.e. it's making good output better, but it's making mediocre output (which is most output) worse by adding volume and the appearance of quality, creating a new layer of FUD, stress, tedium, and unhappiness on top of the previously more-manageable problems that come with mediocre output.
I'm still seeing this even with the newest models, because the problem is the user, not the model - the model just empowers them to be even worse, in a new and different way.
https://somehowmanage.com/2020/10/17/code-is-a-liability-not...
Engineering is hard. It's always going to be hard. I'm glad that AI makes some parts of it easier, and we (software engineers) can focus on engineering, that's nice.
Code is NEVER cheap. Just because, at current completely unrealistic AI pricing, using agents is cheaper than hiring juniors, does not make code cheap. It makes producing code cheap, which has always been low-cost. Every line of code is a cost, is a maintenance burden, is complexity. An AI, even with somehow infinite context window, will cost more money the more code you have.
Could you replace a whole team of engineers with AI? Probably, yeah. Could you simply fire everyone at your company and close it down, without much of a problem? Also probably yes, for most companies.
AIs can help with debugging, can help with writing code, with drafting designs, they can help with almost every step. The second you let OpenAI, or Anthropic, take full code ownership over your products, and you fire the last engineer, is the time when the AI pricing can go up to match what engineers make today. You've just reinvented the highly paid consultant.
Or you could take the middle-ground and hire good engineers, make sure they maintain an understanding of the codebase, and let them use whatever tools they use to get the job done, and done well. This is the way that I've seen competent companies handle it.
“Taste”, is used in many cases, I suspect, to give a name the collection of practices and strategies developers use to keep their code and projects at a manageable level of complexity.
LLMs don’t seem to manage complexity. They’ll just blow right past manageable and keep on going. That’s a problem. The human has to stay in the loop because LLMs only build what we tell them to build (so far).
BTW, the essay that introduced the big ball of mud pattern to me didn’t hold it up as something entirely bad to be avoided. It pointed out how many projects — successful or at least on-going projects — use it, and how its passive flexibility might actually be an advantage. Big ball of mud might just be the steady state where progress can be made while leaving complexity manageable.
1. Lack of knowledge of existing conventions, usually caused by churn of developers working on a project. LLMs read very quickly.
2. Cost of refactoring existing code to meet current best practices / current conception of architecture. LLMs are ideal for this kind of mostly mechanical refactoring.
Currently, though, they don't see to be much help. I'm not sure if this is a limitation in their ability to use their context window, or simply that they've been trained to reproduce code as seen in the wild with all its flaws.
Production code. Especially production code with bugs is expensive. It can cost you customers, you can even get negative money for it in the form of law suits.
Coding agents are great for preproduction and one offs. For production I really wouldn't chance it at any scale above normal human output.
However, an extra script here or there to make your life easier, adding extra UI features based on some datapoint to your internal dashboard, ect, these were things that could've taken a few days you didn't have before to get exactly right and now they can be done with only a few minutes of attention.
Instead of focusing on whether you can build it, the scarcer resource becomes whether you should build it. And most teams lack a clear process for addressing this latter question. Requirements are collected in all sorts of places without ever being prioritized in an organized fashion. This is exacerbated by cheaper code. With cheaper code, you can release five times what you used to be able to release in a given period of time, but only if you knew which five products you needed.
Every time I open linkedin I'm scared of how many big heads have taken the wrong lesson that coding almost free == free engineering. So many bait posts asking engineers why they would need to pay them any longer, or being glad they're generating millions of lines a month....this is going to end badly.
I also keep circling around this point. So many software repositories in the AI space seem to follow a publish and forget pattern. If you simply can show that you have the patience to maintain a project, ideally with manual intervention instead of a fully autonomous AI, then you already have an outstanding project.
On the other hand, like giving a supercar to a teenager, this just enables them to get into trouble faster.
(the "my vibe coded app deleted prod!" stories are funny schadenfreude when they happen to SV startups, whose whole business is pretending to know better. When this happens to a small business who've suddenly lost all their finanacials and now maybe will lose their house, it's a tragedy. And this can happen on a much larger, not AI-related scale, like Jaguar Land Rover: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy9pdld4y81o )
I have friend in west Texas who does industrial electrical gear sales (like those giant spools of cable you see on tractor trailers). He’s 110% good old boy Texan but has adopted and loves AI. He says it’s been a huge help pulling quotes together and other tasks. Coincidentally he lives in Abilene where one of the stargate campuses are going. Btw, the scale of what’s being built in Abilene is like nothing I’ve ever seen.
The issue is that when you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you.
I'm glad that "10 ways to do X" submissions are allowed as long as they boost AI.
Does "boosting AI" include opening an article with "Frontier models are really good at coding these days, much better than they are at other tasks"?
"Product is really good at X, much better than at Y" does not imply that it's bad at Y, and even if it did, if you're targeting an audience that only cares about X, who gives a shit about Y? Might as well throw Y under the bus to boost the perceived effectiveness of product at X even more in comparison.
Many people are finding it difficult to even land internships.
The most affected areas are sysadmin, devops, and frontend. Where you'll have very hard time getting any offer.
Companies like BrowserStack are withdrawing campus placement offers.
Meanwhile, I am writing apps for my own use and have reached 10,000+ monthly active users already, even though I am making zero money from doing all this, but it's fun.
Since at least the early 80s a LOT of very important code wasn't cheap, it was free. Both free of cost (you could "just" download it and run it) but also free as freedom-respecting software.
I just don't get the argument that cheap is new. Cheap is MORE expensive than free!
Free but you're responsible for maintaining it means it's not free. It's the same issue as maintaining your own fork. It's just an ongoing cost.
(Though as AI becomes autonomous enough to be the maintainer, that cost kind of goes away. Then it's just the cost of managing the "dev".)
If anything, I would bet that next year you could get today’s flagship performance for significantly cheaper via an open-weights model.
Open-source models have caught up tremendously recently. Those who can’t or don’t want to invest a lot of money can already develop with Kimi and GLM without any problems. We don’t have to wait another year for that.
From experience, the same level of usage would have left me stranded on my CC 5 hr limit within an hour.
There were some difficulties with tool calls, in particular with replacing tab-indented strings - but taking no steps to mitigate that (which meant the model had to figure it out every time I cleared context) only cost relatively few extra tokens -- and it still came in well under 4.6, nevermind 4.7. And of course, I can add instructions to prevent churning on those issues.
I have no reason to go back to anthropic models with these results.
"No moat" indeed.
I expect tomorrow’s models will be so much more capable that we will happily pay more.
But if not, we will still likely get today’s capabilities or more for cheap.
I don’t see a realistic scenario in which the AI genie is going back into the bottle because of affordability.
It seems like wishful thinking by people who dislike the new paradigm in software engineering.
(Timeframes are hyperbolical).
I'm not all gloom and doom but the treatment of junior engineers is something I think we will either regret or rejoice. Either will have a spur of creative people doing their own independent thing or we'll have lost a generation of great engineers.
If you fire all your SWEs they won't sit around twiddling their thumbs waiting for an AI collapse, they'll career shift. Maybe to an unemployment line and/or homelessness, maybe to something else productive, but either way they'll lose SWE skills.
If you close down all the SWE junior positions you'll strongly discourage young people training in the field. They'll do something else.
Then if you want to go back, who will you hire for it?
Company brain drain, knowledge leaves with your seniors if you decide to get rid of them, or they just leave due to the conditions AI creates.
I don't know if the above comes to fruition, there's a lot of questions that only time will answer. But those are my first thoughts.
Make usable software. Cheap code means that you can create a lot more prototypes to then perform usability tests by finding a user and sitting next to them. I mostly worked on internal apps lately, so perhaps it's much easier for me to do than it is for some others.
I’m not convinced about rebuilding repeatedly as a learning tool though. As relatively quick as it is, it over emphasizes the front line problems you face early. Those tend to be simpler, more straightforward issues that can be more quickly solved by a few minutes of thought (and more cheaply too).
Once upon a time, highly bureaucratic organizations tried to make a distinction between "analyst", "programmer" and "coder": https://cacm.acm.org/opinion/the-myth-of-the-coder/
The pure "coder" role, per that paper, died out almost immediately. Nowadays it's done by compilers (a deterministic automation). The distinction between analyst and programmer held out a bit longer - ten years ago I was working somewhere that had "business analysts", essentially requirements-wranglers. It's possible that the "programmer" job of converting a well-defined specification into a program is also going to start disappearing.
.. but that still leaves the specification as the difficult bit! It remains like the old stories with genies: the genie can give you what you ask for. But you need to be very sure what you want, very clear about it, and aware that it may come with unasked-for downsides if you're not.
It is slower than when I was just using Claude directly though.
[1] https://github.com/gsd-build/get-shit-done
Planning is good but get-shit-done just added too much planning in my opinion.
[1] https://github.com/gsd-build/gsd-2
Buy in bulk and resell. /s