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Discussion (14 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews
Gamestop wasn't a scam either, even if the buyers have been irrational.
Every pump scheme works because buyers think they can exit before the collapse. The core is insiders and banks converting asymmetric information and a sci-fi narrative control into exit liquidity.
GameStop was a public market mania. In an IPO insiders and banks package the story, control disclosure, set allocation, collect fees, and dump risk onto later buyers. Calling this voluntary overpayment ignores the mechanism of exit liquidity.
Every pump scheme works because buyers think they can exit before the collapse. The core is insiders and banks converting asymmetric information and a sci-fi narrative control into exit liquidity.
GameStop was a public market mania. In an IPO insiders and banks package the story, control disclosure, set allocation, collect fees, and dump risk onto later buyers. Calling this voluntary overpayment ignores the mechanism of exit liquidity.
I don't think so https://archive.fo/zcVCZ
You've got people all over the place saying things like this:
>Bryan Mitchell, in Indianapolis, is among those planning to buy. The 48-year-old marketing executive intends to invest several thousand dollars in the IPO. He has also poured tens of thousands into Baron Partners Fund, which holds a stake in SpaceX.
>“This feels like the appetizer. You have to believe in Elon,” he said. “I’m willing to overpay for it just to say I’m part of the thing.”
Bryan isn't being scammed, Bryan just wants to feel like he's a part of something greater and is willing to pay for that. It's not surprising that space travel would be the thing to inspire vast amounts of retail investors to behave in that manner.
>GameStop was a public market mania.
Was?
>In an IPO insiders and banks package the story
This is only true at a very theoretical level.
It seems like a shell game if being played where one company is used to bail out the investors of other companies. With all this merging, shouldn’t there be a case for breaking up SpaceX and not having it become some overly large conglomerate? How are all these dubious moves being blessed by boards of these companies - are they corrupt and stacked with Elon’s friends?
And what of the pay structure Musk has. Will a merger with Tesla trigger its conditions in a dishonest way?
Ultimately, SpaceX is WAY overvalued. Morningstar valued them at roughly half of the IPO price they were seeking (https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/spacex-what-investors-nee...). This spike does not make sense, and people will likely get burned at some point. But Musk will become a trillionaire.
That's already very high. Their profitable businesses are (1) Starlink and (2) Launching satellites. Starlink is growing revenue at maybe 50%, and revenue for launching satellites is growing maybe 10% annually.
But Goldman Sachs, which is leading the IPO process is telling investors that it expected SpaceX’s total revenue to reach $474 billion in 2030, up from $18.7 billion last year. That's 25x growth of revenue in just 4 years.