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Discussion (32 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews
What will happen to the workforce when BNPL debt runs out?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
This is a better version of that chart; the Y-axis is pinned at $0 and it’s quite remarkable to see the year-over-year shift between 2024 and 2025 presented across the full timespan.
If you’d like to explain your position on this and how either chart supports your own viewpoint on what’s going down with BNPL and debt and wages, I’m listening.
In general, I don't favor regulation of loan products, on the notion that people should be free to get loans that fit their circumstances. But I wouldn't be opposed to limiting BNPL loans so they are not available for purchases that are (1) large dollar value and (2) recurring. Or there could be PSAs to warn people about them.
And regardless, they should be teaching kids about money management and the consequences of BNPL in school. There should be plenty of time now that kids aren't learning about "balancing their checkbook".
Wouldn't general usury laws be able to handle this? I suspect BNPL loans for 1 and 2 would generally involve ruinously high interest rates to account for risk, so as long as there's a cap on consumer-facing loan rates that should limit the risk for BNPL offerings.
You and I might be able to make educated judgments about a loan and its value/consequences, but the vast majority of Americans cannot. We simply don't teach this kind of thing in our schools, and every day innocent people get absolutely taken advantage of.
If the public were capable of accurately judging the utility/risk of a loan, then sure we can say it should be on the individual to make their own choices. But that is just not the reality we live in.
I don't want to look down my nose at people who make decisions that I wouldn't make. They also face very different circumstances. What if someone needs to pay for an unexpected medical bill (which they cannot BNPL) and needs to choose between that and rent? What might look like a dumb choice from the outside might be an exercise in constrained optimization.
I've said that I'm open to BNPL being unavailable for certain transaction types, but I wonder if someone with your opinions would rather have them outlawed entirely?
I bet you credit providers would even front the cost of such a course, since at the end of the day they're still likely to make that money back no matter what.
I think the part that I struggle with is the hard reality that we are largely _not_ teaching people these practical skills in our education system and then expecting them to not get screwed.
Yeah I get it, looking down your nose at the "median american" is popular in certain filter bubbles.
Everyone getting a short term loan product knows it's a bad idea. They either fall into the category of "I can afford to finance a taxi for my burrito even if it's stupid" or "I know this is unsustainable but if I don't pay for X then Y then Z will happen and that is a guaranteed bad outcome whereas this at least gives me a chance of a good outcome".
But others here have been truly naive themselves or have journeyed with intimacy and openness beside a parent, partner, or friend who really just doesn't get it.
The reality is that there are a lot and lots and lots of real people in the real world who sincerelt just don't understand the terms they're agreeing to, how their own finances work, what's plausible in their own financial future (near or long term), etc -- and the companies the design and promote convenience loans know this and they target these people like sharks hunting prey.
They use any and every trick they can get away with to lure these naive people into agreements for which all outcomes (payment or default) favor the shark.
Without regulation of both loan design and presentation, lending naturally become a vehicle usury, vaccuuming assets and opportunity from the many earnet people who will always be too credulous, too trusting, too naive, or too desperate to resist.
I'm not making judgments of the people you're speaking down about, I'm making judgements of a nation utterly failing to prepare its citizens for the financial realities of our world. It's not a personal failing for hundreds of millions of people to be financially illiterate, it's a failure of society and those elites who like to gaze down at the dirty peasants for not knowing better.
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As the article mentions, these are probably people who don't have the money in their bank accounts to pay for those things straight away.
Frakk, even at a sane repayment terms (e.g. fixed interest monthly, no steep penalties), it's an interesting way for finance companies to profit from the misery of the leg of the K in the K-shaped economy.
BNPL platforms know what you're spending on, and whether it's a one-time expense that you're spreading out, or a rent/utility payment that's going to come due next month as well.
(And also, though I don't begrudge them much, also, a special hell for those who offer this up to companies for a cut).