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Discussion (74 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews
I dont' know why people spend huge money on these and Spark. The 5090 is running qwen 3.8 at 200+ tps!! That's 1-2 orders of magnitude faster.
Also: ~30 token/s on GLM 5.3-flash, locally. (That's roughly Opus 4.8-tier. I think).
/meta Here's a CSS filter that stops those nuisance chart animations,
Now try running that Qwen 3.8 Next model on the 5090 and tell me what TPS you get (hint: it's near 0 since it doesnt fit the 32GB VRAM on 5090 vs the 256 in OPs M5).
https://old.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1wl06np/qwen38f...
(Note it's a sparse MoE with only 6B active).
That's with CPU offload to a DDR5 6000 RAM though which is around $3-4k at least.
Maybe Apple is an acquisition away from changing that balance.
https://www.macrumors.com/2026/06/25/2027-macs-m7-chips/
This advantage won't be apparent with a 27B model. The 256GB MS can probably run the newer Flash models locally, something you can't do on a 5090.
I don't think we'll get a successor to the 5090 until late 2028, maybe even 2029. I'm basing this on the launch date of the 5000 series and that we haven't got a midcycle refresh yet. Rumor has it the chips are ready but the 3GB RAM modules are 3-4x the price of the 2GB modules used on the current cards.
Apple should see a Mac Studio major update in 2028. That might even force NVidia's hand. But it's really impossible to say what the state of the market will be 2-3 years from now. It may have completely crashed. I suspect not however.
The interesting thing will be when the bandwidth demands start forcing HBM memory onto these home/enthusiast solutions.
Each PC is probably going to cost ~$6k and you're talking about 8000W of electricity draw. That's going to consume multiple 20A circuits even at 240V. And the electricity ain't free either. A Mac Studio seems to draw ~500W max.
Oh and the Mac Studio has an upgrade route to run 1T+ models too by chaining them together with TB5 chaining. OSX supports RDMA this way. That's comparable bandwidth to the 100Gbps Infiniband option.
So you're talking about $50-60k of hardware and more power draw and more heat for something that will I'm sure beat the MS M5U option but at huge cost. Also, at that kind of price point, I'm likely to get a workstation PC and put 2 (or possibly 3) 6000 Pros in it.
I'm also curious about any new low hanging optimization opportunities in the kernels for this new hardware.
It's already clear to me that M5 Mac Studio is more cost-effective than anything you can run on open router, assuming decent utilization.
The M5 Mac Studio will be the most cost effective way to run uncensored cyber capable open agents.
An exciting tipping point will be if programmers can get an Astra-Ultra like experience all week with this hardware. That would be a real sense where this hardware exceeds the value of even 20x cloud subscriptions.
Local models are definitely not as productive as SOTA, sadly it's not close yet. I do think someday they will be "good enough" to use, but they aren't today. Even the SOTA models barely code well, with Opus 4.5 being the first, good coding model.
That being said, I think it's absolutely imperative that we keep pushing local model performance. We need to continue to advance technology there and ensure that the model labs don't do regulatory capture in the name of "safety" (or anything else).
This is a great article and bodes well for the M5, but we should expect more like this comparing to other platforms before we truly understand where it fits.
That’s like 12 years worth of OpenAI Pro subscriptions
I appreciate the reference to RUSH: Red Barchetta in the final line.
[1] https://www.macworld.com/article/3238319/mac-studio-m5-max-r...
Specially since one can pay half right now to OpenAI and sign a 12 year iron clad contract for uninterrupted service delivery of OpenAI Pro.
A more apples-to-apples comparison would be with API cost in OpenRouter at the same tok/s rate for the same models that you can run locally, maybe.
I think it goes without saying. And it is eminently evident over last couple of decades that from compute to storage to meals 3rd part providers have saved billions upon billions of dollars to enterprises and individuals alike by providing these essential services.
Plenty of other reasons to get excited about local AI, but I don't think cost is one of them.
And, yes, I know a current local model wasn't going to solve the Navier-Stokes problem, but I'm just using it as an example where privacy might be valuable.
I didn't expect this to make the 5090 to look like a good deal.
It'd be silly to buy the 18k model to run a tiny model like Qwen 27B. You use models like GLM Flash and Qwen Next which won't fit on a single 5090.
but i wonder how much these token costs are sustainable or not, it may be in the long term cheaper to have your own hardware if token costs go up (and hopefully hardware gets cheaper again)
Ehh, the actual elephant in the room is:
"why bother with local AI at all when you can lease a GPU for $5/hr?"
To which the answer is you shouldn't bother, unless you have a bunch of money to throw at hobby projects.
there are lots of people with very expensive hobbies, see sailboat racing for example.
99% of people will use whatever AI is free. The sophisticated, heavy users that are willing and able to pay a lot of money the ones that will be interested in controlling their inference bills.
Today, the sweet spot where an M5 Ultra makes sense is tiny. But we might expect that to grow a lot.
Yes Apple has some of the best hardware out there, albeit overpriced. But the software is such a hindrance and I can't take anyone that states otherwise seriously. If only it had proper Linux support (and the Asahi people do an amazing job but you can reverse-engineer only so many stuff with limited funding, and then you have to do it again for new models). MacOS is good if you just want to have a standard experience, which to be fair is most people. It's good for just setting up an LLM server I guess since the hardware is a perfect fit. I wouldn't touch it otherwise.