Prediction markets are breaking the news and becoming their own beat

These apps claim to let you turn your knowledge into money. What this means is the insiders get to cash out and the desperate suckers provide the liquidity. I'm amazed they've all gotten away with this for so long.

I don't understand, what's so fundamentally wrong with this form of insider trading? Is the accusation that it makes degenerate gambling unfair? Is it necessary for degenerate gambling to be fair? The gamblers don't seem to care.

Just Goodhart's law to massive scale, the most predictable thing ever (there should be a bet for that). Please go back to crypto and destroy this abhorrent 'industry'

Buying future becomes even easier: just poor money into a bet and eveyone will discuss it as it's real people's expectations....

I dunno, I feel it's just democratizing insider trading. And as everyone knows, if it has "democratizing" in it, that means it's automatically good.

I (my agents) have been playing with the kalshi and poly market APIsv and whatever your opinion on the markets themselves it does feel like there's a bunch of interesting things to do with such a firehose of realtime data.

I hope they stay as open and generous as they are now with programmatic access

I recommend watching the latest Last Week Tonight about prediction markets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN4njIQcSR4

> it blows my mind that we haven’t seen anyone arrested for insider trading yet,

Almost like the offenders get their inside info straight from the chief purveyor of markets up and down chaos

I didn't bet on the beat this broke on.

https://youtu.be/ZN4njIQcSR4?t=1815

There is a market to bet whether Bryan Johnson will have sex this month or not. I dunno, seems that would be easy to control if you are, I dunno, the living person involved?