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#state#budget#https#california#less#should#shortfall#better#error#more

Discussion (65 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews

legitster•42 minutes ago
Correction: This is a correction to the forecast - not the budget.

By the state's own admission, there could be as much as an $18 billion dollar budget deficit if the state economy fails to grow as projected. It could also be a smaller shortfall if the economy is even better than expected.

Miscalculations are pretty common and this is why they are revised several times a year.

codethief•about 3 hours ago
Related: In the German state of Baden-WĂĽrttemberg they miscalculated the number of teachers for 20 years due to a software error, causing the state to employ 1440 fewer teachers than actually intended.

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/bildung/baden-wuerttemberg-s...

NewJazz•about 3 hours ago
[delayed]
sgc•about 3 hours ago
Given that school budgets are absolutely gutted with mass layoffs this year and next, and the miscalculation looks like 2/3 of the budget shortfall, hiding such a basic and impactful error requires a much better explanation than I see in that article. It looks like it was done to stifle debate about budget allocations, which would be necessary in the circumstances.
dmitrygr•about 3 hours ago
idiotsecant•about 3 hours ago
Your own link says CA spends less than UNESCO’s 15.0% standard.

Also, you could frame this in a much more information dense way by making an active claim about something instead of just spamming a bunch of links.

wiseowise•about 3 hours ago
> hiding such a basic and impactful error requires a much better explanation than I see in that article

How about this?

> OOPSIE WOOPSIE!! Uwu We made a fucky wucky!! A wittle fucko boingo!

pclowes•about 3 hours ago
This is wild. A mistake of this magnitude should result in several positions becoming vacant and many politicians being ineligible for any future offices.

If a government can’t budget accurately everything else they do is likely even less competent. Every number and statistic they report should be treated with suspicion. Without clear data who is to say they are doing anything helpful at all?

pclowes•about 3 hours ago
Shocking that the opinion of “actually the government should have basic competency” is controversial and warrants downvotes.

The only real explanation to me is along the lines of “these people might be incompetent , but they are from MY political tribe”

hedgehog•about 2 hours ago
The article doesn't really explain the overall budget, for scale it looks like in the 2025-2026 budget year CA planned to spend about $228B compared to $216B revenue ($227B in the previous year).

https://ebudget.ca.gov/2025-26/pdf/Enacted/BudgetSummary/Sum...

nxobject•about 3 hours ago
If you want a vivid illustration (from an adjacent state) about the impact of pessimistic fiscal projections: Oregon has an infamous "kicker" law that refunds income taxes collected in excess of projections (plus a 2% margin). The state faces the same budgetary challenges as California... but can't project too pessimistically lest it leave money off the table.
jaggederest•about 3 hours ago
Oregon's kicker law is a textbook example of bad economic policy, sadly. It essentially means that in boom years the state can't accumulate any general funds for recessions, which is half of the point of a state-level political entity in the first place. Balanced budgets and pay as you go are fabulous over the medium term, but over the short term of a year or two during a disaster or recession, governmental spending is critical as a counterbalance to reduced investment and general employment income.
jjtheblunt•about 2 hours ago
"Gov. Newsom in January projected the state would have to grapple with a $2.9 billion shortfall. The confirmed miscalculation means that shortfall could be much smaller."

So, the title is just plain misleading.

California is less in deficit than they earlier calculated.

IvyMike•about 3 hours ago
tyre•about 3 hours ago
A little “bank error in your favor” sitchu. We love to see it.
snickerbockers•about 3 hours ago
"See what?" --Gavin
seiferteric•about 3 hours ago
Didn't something like this just happen last year (or year before) but in the opposite direction?
dogscatstrees•about 1 hour ago
They should have used Claude Code for Excel.
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cdrnsf•about 2 hours ago
Oops! They're still far easier to deal with than any federal agency.
SilentM68•about 1 hour ago
My Opinion:

Anyone who thinks this is a glitch in the system, or an honest mistake, should shift their mindset and start thinking more like a detective and less like a politician.

California has been steadily declining for years, now. Waste, mismanagement, fraud are commonplace. This needs to be investigated by impartial third parties that can't be bought and paid for whose commitment must be verified via polygraph. Those that are found guilty need to be prosecuted and jailed.

Being that this is California, what will end up happening is that the politicians will end up investigating themselves and miraculously be found not liable.

******

Unbiased-AI Deep Dive:

https://archive.ph/jdyO4

tonymet•about 2 hours ago
it’s less than 1% of the budget, and the state keeps overspending. Don’t get too optimistic
boznz•about 3 hours ago
[delayed]
whalesalad•about 3 hours ago
2 billion surplus? that's good for about 150 linear feet of high speed rail track in the middle of Salinas.
testfoobar•about 2 hours ago
Give it back?
mlmonkey•about 2 hours ago
> California's legislative leaders have known for months but did not make the issue public.

Why would they give up a chance to make more money from the people? The government never misses an opportunity to pad its coffers. Reminds me of the CA State Parks department, which squirreled away millions of dollars and then was crying about lack of funding and hence wanted to shut down some parks.

xp84•about 2 hours ago
Fun fact: I recently vacationed in Hawaii and couldn’t help but notice, despite groceries costing about 2x, gas there is a dollar cheaper than at home in California. California just can’t get enough tax money.
verteu•about 1 hour ago
The best comparison is probably "overall tax burden": https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/tax-burden-by-state...

When you include all taxes (eg property tax), there's surprisingly little variation between states: For example, TX is 6th-lowest at 8.6% of income, while CA is 46th-lowest at 13.5% of income. Hawaii is 48th-lowest at 14.1%

reducesuffering•about 1 hour ago
Not really a fact, more of a bad anecdote. Currently HI gas is just $0.17 cheaper than CA, and I see many CA gas stations at $5.09, just like HI. A decent chunk of that comes from strict CA low pollution refining, you know, to help you breath better...

https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/