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83% Positive

Analyzed from 2149 words in the discussion.

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#space#market#satellite#satellites#iridium#rocket#don#https#spacex#launch

Discussion (85 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews

proeeabout 1 hour ago
We have a bright future full of endless "space-junk". As the price to orbit drops, people will inevitably send up more and more satellites that have questionable value. In 100 years will the sky at night just be a massive grid of dots moving across the sky?

Who will create the first advertisement in space using satellites as pixels to create their company logo? Maybe they can add some color and animations for kicks.

Edit: Another note on space junk is the effect on our atmosphere with all the "burning-up" of various materials. Apparently they don't just completely vaporize, but instead leave behind micro particles that float around for a long time. People are studying this and hopefully raising appropriate alarms (Making the case for wood satellites).

Centigonalabout 1 hour ago
Hank Green did a video recently advocating for an "orbit value tax" -- like a Georgist Land Value Tax, but for orbits. This tax would, among other things, help fund orbital cleanup and internalize the externality of polluting orbital shells. It's an idea that deserves more discourse IMO.

Here is the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLjW6zuYmos

nba456_34 minutes ago
And who does the tax get paid to? Some mythical Global Government that will totally work this time?
steveBK1239 minutes ago
My new startup, SPECTRE.

It's a new SaaS play - Satellites As A Service. That is, your satellite gets to stay in orbit as long as you pay me.

Otherwise my satellite killer eats them.

LunaSea26 minutes ago
Any company removing space debris from orbit. Like a carbon capture price to offset your launch.
mukbangpervert27 minutes ago
The video discusses this directly.
nradov13 minutes ago
Do you think Russia will be willing to pay a tax on their new Rassvet constellation?
m4rtink32 minutes ago
In practice the lower cost of access to space had made it viable to star requiring people to at least deorbit their upper stages, something that was long a no-go, with the excuse being that the extra fuel and redundancy would eat too much into the payload mass.

Nowadays it is generally frowned upon if you leave upper stages in orbit or if your satellite fragment spontaneously. There are of course exceptions (like some chinese launches leaving massive core stages in orbit that ten randomly fall back a couple months later) but AFAIK the situations seems to be actually improving due to the added robustness, that was only made possible by cheaper access to space.

s0rceabout 1 hour ago
There is a legitimate concern with space junk hitting useful stuff or even manned spacecraft but I think space is big and the sky won't appear bright soon. Not all satellites are that reflective and they need to reflect the sun, they don't just glow visibly.
TheJoeManabout 1 hour ago
At present, I don't believe there are industry standards / codes mandating minimization of reflectivity. My understanding is that SpaceX has engineered for this from their own internal requirements and "goodness of their hearts" (which may be related to avoidance of public pushback). As we anticipate a major scale-up of LEO in the future, it follows that "cost pressures" may (mal)incentivize players to skip this concern.
ralfd19 minutes ago
> "goodness of their hearts" (which may be related to avoidance of public pushback)

I hate this cynicism in everything. People didnt work there 10 years ago to be millionaires in a far away IPO, they worked there because they are Team Space.

stuxnet7925 minutes ago
On the positive side, clearing out all this space junk could end up being a meaningful contributor to global GDP. See also Planetes [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetes

wuliwong11 minutes ago
Thanks for reminding me, I started watching this and forgot about it!
Lendal16 minutes ago
It's already a massive grid of moving dots. You can see it from the ground in certain dark-enough areas, but in order to see it in space you have to get outside LEO, like Artemis did. They don't have lights but they are shiny and they catch the sun, making them easily visible from certain angles, which the Artemis photos illustrated.
tonic_note23 minutes ago
Satellite broadband stonks in shambles after the inevitable Kessler syndrome
nba456_36 minutes ago
Oh great the NIMBYs are coming for space now.
Matumio35 minutes ago
Not a grid of dots, a ring! https://earthsky.org/human-world/kessler-syndrome-colliding-...

It's a tragedy of the commons situation. And given how well we are able to regulate those kind of situations globally, I'm rooting for the ring.

taneqabout 1 hour ago
It’s already starting to be like that. If you get far enough out into the bush away from light pollution and watch the stars for a bit, you can see the grid of satellites orbiting. It’s kind of cool but also kind of depressing.
bell-cot26 minutes ago
"Unobstructed view of the stars" will soon be how space tourism companies upsell their customers to higher orbits.
JanSoloabout 2 hours ago
I think they saw how SpaceX was using Starlink as launch lever to provide SpaceX a baseline of regular launches at bare-minimum cost. As RocketLab starts to scale up, being able guarantee a minimum number of launches is a significant hedge against the dips in the global satellite market.

Also, RocketLab builds their own sats and can add the Iridium constellation replacements to their order book. It's a win-win. A smart move by Peter Beck and his team.

NetMageSCWabout 2 hours ago
What does Tesla have to do with Starlink or launch services?
JanSoloabout 2 hours ago
Derp; I meant SpaceX.
nonethewiser10 minutes ago
Might be one-in-the-same soon enough
Centigonalabout 2 hours ago
"Rocket Lab acquires Iridium" sounds like a notification out of Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri or Anno 2205.
phildenhoffabout 2 hours ago
Rocket lab used to be a New Zealand source of pride, having started there. From the press release, now it’s American. What happened?
MyelinatedTabout 2 hours ago
It was always an American company. In order to launch rockets from countries in the US sphere of influence (even from NZ), companies must obtain an FAA license.

Rocket technology itself is so intensely regulated by US export control laws that it’s practically impossible to develop an orbital launch vehicle without being a US- or Europe-registered company.

It is a real shame. It also looks like a lot of engineering work is shifting away from NZ — Auckland seems to be focusing more on operations and space systems, and the launch stuff is moving to the US with Neutron.

khursabout 1 hour ago
SpaceX previously said that are not allowed to hire foreign nationals generally.

So guess NASA told Rocket that if they want American contracts, they need to move?

https://qz.com/794101/elon-musk-explains-why-he-doesnt-hire-...

ericmayabout 2 hours ago
Needs access to American capital markets, contracts, governance structures, and jurisdiction (applicable law).
y0ssar1an18 minutes ago
at least it's still got a bunch of Kiwi engineers building the Rutherford engine.
bell-cot22 minutes ago
It sure doesn't help that New Zealand's housing market is one of the most unaffordable in the world.
micromacrofootabout 1 hour ago
same thing that always happens to companies, money
elzbardicoabout 2 hours ago
Capital probably, market access. It is pretty hard to raise capital for high risk ventures like that everywhere in the world other than the US.
everfrustratedabout 3 hours ago
RocketLab gains spectrum + profitable satellite company
davidpapermillabout 2 hours ago
> Rocket Lab has secured commitments for a $3.6 billion bridge loan from Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo to fund the cash portion of the acquisition.

Given the timing, this seems like a risky move as they'll be issuing debt in mid-2027 to refinance the bridge, at a time the market could be saturated / corrected.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/rocket-lab-bu...

espadrineabout 2 hours ago
Iridum gains 23 launches per year with 100% success rate in the past 12 months, a satellite manufacturing pipeline with 6 satellites produced and launched, and a cost-to-orbit of $25K/kg operational (with an in-development design targetting $4K/kg).

They are late compared to SpaceX, to be sure: 150 launches per year, 2400 satellites manufactured per year, $3K/kg operational with F9, target $200/kg in development with Starship.

panick21_about 2 hours ago
You act as if 'launch' is a thing. All Rocket Lab launches ever combined don't even fill a single SpaceX rocket. Those are not the same thing.

Lets see their reliability when they have a bigger rocket and if they can land reliably. Because their rocket will be quite expensive to build.

schainksabout 1 hour ago
I think that’s the point of their niche right? They are already plenty reliable. Also let’s them do stuff like this:

https://rocketlabcorp.com/updates/victus-haze/

wongarsuabout 2 hours ago
And access to a customer base. A lot easier to sell them new services if they already have a big contract with you
NetMageSCWabout 2 hours ago
A profitable satellite company with a lot of debt and satellites that target the previous model of bespoke terminals when the market is moving to satellite service on regular phones.
amlutoabout 1 hour ago
> the market is moving to satellite service on regular phones.

I don’t think there a unified “market” here. The fixed rooftop terminals and fixed-ish roaming terminals use high (tens of GHz) frequencies with correspondingly wide bandwidth, have excellent beamforming capabilities and some degree of MIMO to improve spectrum reuse, and consume an amount of power that would be outrageous for a phone. Phones don’t have reliably clear views of the sky and have much weaker RF capabilities.

Oh, and phones are well served by existing 4G and 5G networks in dense areas, with better spectrum reuse than seems practical for a satellite constellation.

I expect that we will actually see two separate markets that happen to share the same satellites and backhaul.

piltdownmanabout 1 hour ago
//I don’t think there a unified “market” here.

You mean like the ASTS/Vodafone partnership that birthed the Satellite Connect Europe?

https://www.vodafone.com/news/newsroom/technology/satellite-...

https://www.vodafone.com/news/newsroom/technology/vodafone-a...

Or like the US JV where they provide the infra for AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260513491108/en/AST...

//Phones don’t have reliably clear views of the sky and have much weaker RF capabilities.

And they appear to have circumvented that, although ease of scaling remains to be seen.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/comments/1k6whtf/rak...

hobonationabout 2 hours ago
Iridium terminals can be very power-efficient. Consumer ones are the size of a deck of cards and can last for days.
Symmetryabout 2 hours ago
The spectrum is the big thing. If they wanted a revenue stream they could just buy bonds.
peloratabout 1 hour ago
I like RocketLab. Looking forward to Neutron etc. But this is a bad investment, no other way to put it.
petesergeant31 minutes ago
> But this is a bad investment

Brother, share with us a sentence or two of why you think so

Joel_Mckayabout 1 hour ago
Uncertain what Iridium global RF band allocation holdings were worth.

If it is still pole-to-pole global monolithic coverage, than hardware/legacy-protocols are of secondary interest. Modern SDR transceivers with proper RF beam-steering front-ends could retrofit the business while slowly phasing out legacy hardware.

But I do agree, Iridium was too pricey for most consumer product markets, and there were several other satellite broadband services.

Additionally, Starlink Direct to Cell (VoLTE) service now leverages global cellphone client infrastructure. It would be extremely foolish to compete with something proprietary. =3

ryandvmabout 1 hour ago
I dunno. I would be surprised if a 30 year old telecommunications network is going to be technically competitive with a SpaceX's LEO network that is still launching satellites as we speak.

How much market is there for people that just want low speed connectivity from the middle of nowhere?

denotesabout 1 hour ago
Sailors may be a small and dwindling community, but this is our core use case. When you are sailing offshore you need to download weather predictions so that you can chart your course to catch favorable winds. My experience with Iridium is that you open a targeted set of ports for the modem to feed your phone via, and then you don't have to think about it again. 100+ nautical miles offshore and it just works.
ttulabout 1 hour ago
It’s not about Iridium. It’s about Iridium’s customers and partnerships. RocketLab hopes to launch their own satellites presumably and then can sell significantly improved services to them, without having to build a customer base from scratch.
m4rtink27 minutes ago
AFAIK Iridium is part of some important airliner navigation systems and standards - while a niche, it can still be very lucrative business. and I would not be surprised if it was embedded like this into various other systems that are less cost sensitive.
kilroy123about 1 hour ago
You realize they have a new network of satellites, right? It works much better than the old version with the 90s tech.

A lot of remote IOT devices use Iridium, as well as the US government or DoD.

wateralienabout 2 hours ago
“Rocket Lab” not “RocketLab”. Although I think the latter is better.
khursabout 1 hour ago
Good to see the competition making moves, SpaceX's huge lead isn't ideal.
Joel_Mckayabout 1 hour ago
Starlink Direct to Cell (VoLTE) service now leverages global cellphone client infrastructure. It would be extremely foolish to compete with something proprietary. =3
gigatexal16 minutes ago
Who? is buying who?

I guess good for them and for the folks who just got paid.

moralestapiaabout 2 hours ago
Crazy. I didn't know you could acquire things worth 20x more than you.
pnwabout 2 hours ago
RocketLab market cap is 57b.

Iridium market cap was 5.5b and this transaction values it at 8b.

xgbiabout 2 hours ago
How is Rocketlab valued 57B? They made $500M of revenue in 2025. This is 100x their entire balance sheet.
pavonabout 1 hour ago
Yeah, that seems grossly unrealistic. They are growing. Neutron is almost complete, and I'd expect significant growth in their launch revenue from that, and their space services are also doing well. So I could easily see their revenue increasing 5x over the next 5 years, maybe 10x. But that market cap can only be justified by the space market as a whole growing 100x, and RL maintaining a significant portion of it with strong competition from SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others.
wateralienabout 2 hours ago
This is a good question for SpaceX too.
saberienceabout 2 hours ago
Why was Uber valued in billions for years while making zero profit?

Why was Amazon valued at billions while making zero profit?

The stock market prices companies by many factors, revenue and profit are factors but so is growth.

Utilities companies make lots of profits but they are valued badly because they don’t grow at all!

Markets are forward looking and space is seen as a huge growth driver for the future, also RocketLab has been growing their top line revenue massively over the last few years.

moralestapiaabout 1 hour ago
Exactly my point.

Iridium's revenue is larger, and I wouldn't think they'd be losing money.

But apparently you can buy things with promises (if you're in the right club, of course).

sspiffabout 2 hours ago
I'm guessing they acquired it mostly exchanging stocks. Which I guess is an indication that their stock is overvalued right now if they're willing to overpay by that much.
brookstabout 2 hours ago
Look at GameStop’s quixotic attempt to acquire eBay. Which is actually not impossible.
zieabout 2 hours ago
It's an interesting way to apply for the eBay CEO job for sure.
iamacyborgabout 2 hours ago
Someone's been reading Money Stuff.
ortusduxabout 2 hours ago
5x the market cap!
moralestapiaabout 2 hours ago
Did GameStop acquire eBay?
sspiffabout 2 hours ago
They are trying.
PierceJoyabout 2 hours ago
Rocket Lab's market cap is 57B and are buying Iridium for 8B. I'm assuming you're implying some other measure of worth, but it's not that crazy based on stock price.
ericmayabout 2 hours ago
Also folks acquire things "worth" more than them all the time. That's in part why debt exists.

There are a lot of folks out there that are overly cynical and so they'll just write things like the OP from time to time which just don't make much sense or have much to do with how the real world works. What's more interesting is looking at or trying to understand strategically why Rocket Lab is making this move, especially if you are an investor.

malfistabout 2 hours ago
Dell bought EMC for 67b when they were worth 24b
bitwizeabout 2 hours ago
This is one of those times you actually get to use "leverage" as a verb without sounding turbo cringe: a leveraged buyout is an acquisition with borrowed money; the hope is that you will be able to pay back the debt with the money you make off the acquired assets. Doesn't always pan out but sometimes it does.
elzbardicoabout 2 hours ago
That's this thing called credit.

People do this all the time, that's how they buy their first house (or at least used to...). Your net worth is basically zero beyond what you saved for the down payment, but the bank advances you the money to buy the house because it believes your future income streams will allow you to pay the principal plus an interest.

dylan604about 1 hour ago
being able to foreclose on the house/property is a pretty decent protection for the bank that doesn't exist for a business though
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