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Discussion (7 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews
For some reason the economist's page was not loading on my browser.
Is that really enough to get a representative sample across 340 million people? Also, with tech as it is, why is that the best they can do?
Basically any method for sampling the population introduces bias. The sample of people who pick the phone, who respond to texts or emails, who come to the door for a stranger, are all subpopulations with their own biases. A pollster’s ability to correct for these biases is what separates the good from the bad.
So the actual question is how they checked that their sample is representative and not too heavy on any demographic.
This is the "spherical cow" of statistics.
In fact, 385 people is enough for 350M people, if sufficiently random.
n = (ZZp(1-p))/(EE)
n = sample size
Z = confidence (studies are usually 95%)
p(1-p) = variance of binormal proportion, usually set p=.5
E = margin of error (is 1.00-.95 or .05)