The US grocery slowdown is real

It cuts back some of the fig leaves

In the immediate term, "Approximately 4 million people in a typical month will lose some or all of their SNAP food benefits once the changes are fully implemented, based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates." according to the Center on Policy and Budget Priorities. [1] I'm not sure what is going to happen in my community (rural Virginia with a good portion of federal and federal-adjacent retirees living here full-time) as people continue to be kicked off SNAP. Food pantries are serving more people than at the beginning of 2025. I've not investigated the status of donations. But anecdotally, friends are giving fewer food items to emergency pantries.

But as is the case with other aid programs, there is a public benefit to public benefits: "Here’s the remarkable thing about SNAP: it’s one of the highest return investments the government makes. According to USDA Economic Research Service data, every $1 in SNAP benefits generates approximately $1.50 to $1.80 in economic activity. During the Great Recession, that multiplier reached $1.84." The question is, with the reduction in people served coupled with work requirements, will the follow-on economic benefits be realized between now and 2034? How will low-income households fare?

[1] https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/many-low-incom... [2] https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden-economic-engin...

I buy the highest quality, lowest cost stuff I can find.

There can be a positive story here maybe though:

- More doordash = less grocery

- More farmer's market = less grocery

- More home-grown = less grocery

Though TFA points out,

  80% of Americans say they're still trying to spend less
  28% are actively trying to cut back on groceries
  56% are trading down to lower-priced brands
  49% are simply buying fewer items,
  44% are leaning harder on coupons and promotions

Grocery prices at Aldi, Walmart, Costco are amazingly low, especially when accounting for the freshness, quality, and variety of foods today vs. 30 years ago.

So here's page with a line chart and downloadable CSV data, with a ~79 year lookback best as could quickly be found [0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFXARA3Q086SBEA

In short: Don't worry, this one is just a 1974 or 2008 or 1992 or 1981 style blip. Hopefully. It always recovered before. (Before 1947, data is sketchy/excluded though.)

People did wait in soup and bread lines in the 1930s, I think. Check the online libraries, you'll find entire books from the early 1900s on how to make economical tasty meals on a shoestring budget.

We can do better. But it's not going to be by relying on large corps to help us out, probably.

It's going to be by reinventing the systems that are utterly broken.

[0] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real personal consumption expenditures: Nondurable goods: Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption (chain-type quantity index). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFXARA3Q086SBEA

doesn't surprise me that people are trying to get their dollars to stretch further by buying in bulk, planning ahead more consciously, etc.

Seems pretty straightforward. They increased their price to try and make up for losses, which in turn mean less people purchasing, which they responded to by increasing prices. A lovely little circle.

Maybe some economists should investigate how prices effects demand, could be groundbreaking.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/grocery/2026/07/08/walmart-ro...

Another quote that springs to mind is "Corporations behave like they're annoyed that they have to go through you to get to your money". The pandemic was a catalyst for a change in attitude by American corporations who were afraid to raise prices. That fear is now gone. Every aspect of corporations now are dedicated to raising prices and the easiest thing to raise prices on is things with inelastic demand. Food, housing, electricity. It's the entire basis of private equity, which seeks "pricing power". That's just another way of saying "inelastic demand".

All of this has been exacerbated by a pointless, unwinnable foreign war in Iran at the behest of a foreign state (ie Israel). The only thing thus far that has prevented a global economic collapse is China [1] but that is about to bite because the US SPR is about to hit the effective minimum [2]. And now the issue isn't going to be crude oil but shortages of refined petroleum products, particularly diesel. You can see this by looking at the 3-2-1 Crack Spread [3], which itself is also going to get worse because of the destruction of an estimated 40% of Russia's refining capacity, which has already resulted in halting diesel exports.

Diesel prices are a huge factor in inflation [4]. Another lagging issue here is that much of the crops planted in the northern hemisphere this year received less or no fertilizer because of the Iran war. That's likely to cause a famine impacting tens of millions of people and will further drive up food prices.

Rents keep going up. Food prices keep going up. Inflation keeps going up. The one thing that doesn't keep going up are wages. And people are rapidly running out of money to absorb it. And the American government that is inflicting this on not only the US but really the world, does not care.

[1]: https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/china-oil-imports-i...

[2]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-stocks-us-strate...

[3]: https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread

[4]: https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minute-diesel-trucking-...

I think it's a legitimate concern, and just one of many problems. Couple that with inflation (yes, and rising costs self compounding), petrol problems, pressure on the dollar, income stagnation, loads of other fun things and the wondrous introduction of LLM magic into every orifice of society, where should we expect this all leads to?

I am always looking for reasons to let my inner optimist shine through. Help, anyone?

Edit: I expect I will be chastened by vegans for the following, but..

I no longer buy milk. Organic milk up from an astonishing ~$5 to an average of $7.50 per gallon now.

I do not buy much meat, but beef is no longer an option. Yeah, it was subsidized, but that doesn't mean it's getting more affordable.

But really, I can no longer afford fresh vegetables. And though I lean vegetarian, that is quickly becoming an unhealthy option.

We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).