AI is not just one bubble, strategist says – but a 'rolling sequence of bubbles'

andsoitis•about 4 hours ago

Show us the numbers that substantiate this framing.

Also, if it is “rolling sequence of bubbles”, isn’t it more just like foam that self-corrects rapidly without major crashes? Put differently, isn’t this the opposite of a “bubble”?

throw1234567891•about 3 hours ago

A sequence of bubbles implies one bubble after another, therefore there is no two bubbles at the same time, therefore it’s no foam.

andsoitis•22 minutes ago

It’s one-dimensional foam.

metalman•11 minutes ago

no, the concepts hype ,froth, and slop are inexorably comming together.

4d4m•about 3 hours ago

Its fun to fit theories to past events, but this strategist knows next to nothing. Call me back when he's working on a frontier model or implementing tools at scale... his opinion is worth less than the cost to serve the "article" he was quoted in.

cyanydeez•about 2 hours ago

what does any of that have to do with the reality of financing things currently providing unproven ROI in real world values?

cyanydeez•about 2 hours ago

ok, lets take a todo app. Everyones naive first project in modern JS framework world. Before AI, it took a week worth of work to git some simple todos, maybe a calender function, probably a reminder. Some very set of basic functionality.

No one was going to buy it in that state, great.

Nowe we have AI; in an afternoon, it'll pound out a todo app and all your choice of fixings. Great!

No one is still going to buy it; 2x, because the "total addressable market" is not the globe, because, you know, joe over there learning basic programming can do it just the same as you now. There's no secret sauce.

Whose making money? the guy selling you AI. Great, but you know, your apps not going to sell when anyone can implement any moderately time consuming app.

So not only do you have the poor business model of your todo app, you also have the poor marketability of a todo app, since any AI can do it just as well as you.

So yeah, sure, AI is building apps, but aside from selling you this wonderful capability, it's a snake eating it's own tail.

4d4m•about 2 hours ago

Its good to separate usecases and market fit from what the tools unlock. You can't use AI to front-run the discovery and research processes, which like you said many people find out too late. Their next iteration includes this context usually.

CoolestBeans•about 2 hours ago

This is just a bubble by another name. To use tech as an example, remember that the dot-com bubble was really three crashes: the crash of the dot-com companies in 2000, the telecom crash in 2001, and the media crash in 2002. Of course these were all linked. The dot-com companies were massive revenue and expected revenue sources for telecoms and media companies. But noticeably they didn't all crash at the same time. This is typical.

If you think AI is also a bubble, it will probably be the same. If Anthropic and OpenAI go through hard times or disappear, it will take a while before the market understands the scope of how it will affect cloud companies and how much cloud companies have built out and how much revenue can be replaced by non-AI companies. Same thing for semiconductor manufacturers (although as a classically cyclical businesses the pain will be obvious more immediately). One difference though is that because the revenues of these cooperating industries are more round-trips, perhaps that will cause them all to fall together as revenues can disappear essentially overnight.

AI is not just one bubble, strategist says – but a 'rolling sequence of bubbles'

⚡ Community Insights

Discussion (9 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews