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Discussion (33 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews
In the relatively long-term, I'm also interested to see what's going to happen with the expansions at Churchill. It's still certainly small right now but there's an interesting opportunity going the northern route.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_sovereignty_movement
That would be correct if it is within Canada, not jumping on another entity like Europe or China to substitute. Canada is decades behind when it comes to manufacturing or development of hardware or software, Canada economy is based on services, realesate, and a bit of resources export. Canada economy is a repellent to startups, and if any local startup manages to get slightly bigger, they move to the states to sustain and grow or they will declare bankruptcy within the first 5 years.
I don't foresee Canada completely removing trade with US anyways, more of a hedging move to reach out and diversify trade.
In the medium to long term, Trump is very old, his approval ratings are in the toilet. I hope that the democrats do well in the midterms and put up a viable candidate to beat him next election (if he's still alive). I also hope that the republicans manage to put up someone smarter and less morally reprehensible next time. Because I mean, this guy doesn't actually represent any kind of conservative ideal in any way. The only people he appeals to are those one or two standard deviations on the left of the bell curve.
If the next US president is halfway sane, Canada and the US will likely begin to repair trade relationships, but I think that Canada and the rest of the world will be a bit more careful next time. The US may never regain the international standing they enjoyed before. Trump has made China look like the more stable and rational trading partner, and accelerated the decline of the US.
Broadening our trade is similar to building a new oil pipeline. Nobody is sure a new pipeline will ever pay for itself, but one we started a decade ago would be making us a fortune right now. Trade diversification won't help us much in the current trade war, but it could help us out considerably in the next one.
Trump is a symptom, not the root cause. He may die of old age soon and MAGA may go dormant for a few years if the midterms and/or 2028 election beat them down sufficiently, but they'll be back eventually with some other clown at the helm. Americans voted Trump in twice. They'll vote clown again, and having options will help Canada when that happens. American checks and balances no longer work. If we'd known this was going to happen ten years ago we'd be in a better position today. Now we know it's likely to happen again in another ten or twenty years, so we'd be fools not to prepare.