Ask HN: Prediction for SpaceX IPO?

Day 1 - 7: Significant gains Days 8 - 100: Huge drawdown Days 100+: Who knows - it's already priced so high that in any sane market they would have to execute flawlessly but it's an Elon company and hype alone will keep it afloat regardless of fundamentals.

Early investors will sell out once the index money hits. No one is going long at current valuation.

After the dump it may be a good time to buy. No doubt conquering space is the next big human endeavour. It's science fiction today but the human race will need to live on spaceships in the future to avoid extinction. As the sun swells to a red giant and engulfs the Earth.

My prediction is that it will rapidly increase in price out of the gate due only to speculation on a trend. After about two weeks the growth in price will start slowing but not stop. Eventually, possibly after multiple months, there will be a slow slide as the speculative early buyers have a change of heart.

It’s not bitcoin but it’s also not Tesla. Tesla makes products that people use and Tesla actually returns a profit.

lot's of idiots are going to lose their money

This will drive the price of Gold below $4000/ounce, and Silver below $50, and crash most of the rest of the stock market as other things are sold off to buy in at the triple IPOs.

The price will look like Silver has for the past year... extreme volatility.

SPCX: the company has designed a rolling schedule that drips shares out in stages. Two days after its first earnings report, insiders can sell up to 20% of their holdings. Another 10% unlocks early if the stock holds 30% above its IPO price for five of ten consecutive trading days. After that, 7% tranches free up at regular intervals through the first 135 days. A further 28% follows after Q3 earnings, with the remainder releasing at the standard 180-day point.

[...] Elon Musk sits outside this entirely. He and select major backers have committed to a full 366-day lockup. Given that Musk controls the majority of voting power, his agreement to stay locked up for a full year is a meaningful positive signal. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-sto...

I will not be trying to participate in the IPO. I do think waiting until the first 20% unlocks and potentially sold into the market would be reasonable thing to consider. Long term I think this is majorly bullish based only on the xAI infrastructure plays.

From an engineering standpoint, no one else has the technical capability right now to land a rocket and refurbish it and send it back to space with the speed that SpaceX has demonstrated.