SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

Typically this would be prohibited (at least as an employee)

I wouldn't say that it collapsed, it's only slightly under its IPO price, $134 vs. $135.

However it's not going up and later this month the first lockup period ends and people who got stock options are allowed to sell some of their stocks. These people don't care if the price is $134 or $135, because they go in much much lower, down to $30, from what I can tell. So starting this month there's going to be new shares available to buy, and the sellers are less critical of the price your offering.

Yes, people expect it to trade much lower, around $40 per share, still would be a huge valuation for what the company has done. Goldman Sachs analysts had an extreme range, of like $6 Billion to $5T, but the consensus $2T required 100x revenue multiple by 2030. If revenue was less than 10x by 2030 it's less than $100B company, and only $6B if it remains flat. So a lot of downsides and the upside requires a continuation of some insane magic.

I think the pullback from the initial IPO bump was expected. I think the news here is expectations that it has a lot more downside to come.

Particularly once it gets past the lockup period. If I had to guess I say a lot of folks are thinking a lot of people will sell post lock up and they’re timing their shorts around that date.

Tbh I'm no5 sure I've even seen an IPO where the price didn't collapse initially.

JPM still thinks its a $300 stock

That is true for the stocks but not options. Anyone with a brokerage account can write some calls and if they get exercised it’s up to them to find the stock to buy. Most pricing models assume the liquidity is always available but that’s not necessarily the case.

> Every single shorted stock, was purchased by someone else who is taking the long side of the trade.

> So there's as many people betting the stock will go up.

The first sentence is a useful reminder, but second has a error: A single person can have multiple bets, and not all bets are the same volume.

For example, Alice has a budget of $10 and believes the coin-flip will land Heads. Alice makes a $5 wager with Bob and a $3 wager with Carol and a $2 wager with Dan. The equilibrium is in money, rather than opinion-havers.

Given the continued downward trend, it may be the buyers may just be disagreeing on how fast it drops, not necessarily taking a long term buy and hold position. I don't know much about option pricing, but aren't put options basically betting on the spread?

This isn't saying anything, anyone selling a stock is selling to someone going long.

You are assuming there are not naked shorts out there.

Almost all lenders are institutional funds like Vanguard and Fidelity.

As index funds they were forced to buy. They are not taking any view.

$4T was 20% of all US currency ever printed in 2020. What makes this worth 10%? China and Japan are already catching up.

This was just a bag drop on retail and trying to force it into retirement funds proves it.

No one forced them to IPO well above the present value of their future cash flows. Or claim their TAM was $28 trillion.

I would argue the current price action isn't even driven by any company decisions. The stock needs to settle for a while after IPO.

Anyone that thinks Musk approaches anything for short-term results doesn't understand Musk.

Not quite, it's also about transferring money to the Saudi princes who financed his buyout of Twitter.