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Discussion (120 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews

exceptioneabout 4 hours ago

  > And he hinted at a novel approach to monetary policy, suggesting that “the ultimate intervention is our military”.
Yes, that was both funny and tragic. But it also demonstrates why smart people made him president: he is beyond perfect for redirecting attention. By burning the institutions down and by severing international relations, a certain class of people can finally disable the corrective and limiting mechanisms that keep them in check. Even if that means the whole country needs to be burned down. Zero sum in business, zero sum in church, zero sum in state governance.
samrusabout 3 hours ago
I wouldnt call those people smart. They might be playing a game optimally in the short term, but they are ruining a long term system. And i dont mean centuries, but decades. They need the general population 20 years from now to have grown up in a safe and prosperous environment with good education accross the board and the country to have the global influence necessary to maintain all that. They're throwing all that away for more cornering more of a market for the next 5-10 years. Its kinda dumb
ifwintercoabout 3 hours ago
Those people aren't really "Americans" in any meaningful sense, even if they happen to hold US passports.

Once they're done with the US they'll just move onto the next country, same as they moved onto the US once the British empire was done.

They're just locusts

BLKNSLVRabout 1 hour ago
I don't disagree that they're locusts, but 'American' has been leaning heavily in the same direction as locusts for a long while. That's why they currently hold US Passports, the most fertile breeding ground.
anonymarsabout 1 hour ago
From Network (1976):

You are an old man who thinks in terms of nations and peoples. There are no nations. There are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no West.

There is only one holistic system of systems, one vast and immane, interwoven, interacting, multivariate, multinational dominion of dollars. Petro-dollars, electro-dollars, multi-dollars, reichmarks, rins, rubles, pounds, and shekels. It is the international system of currency which determines the totality of life on this planet. That is the natural order of things today. That is the atomic and subatomic and galactic structure of things today! And YOU have meddled with the primal forces of nature, and YOU... WILL... ATONE!

Am I getting through to you, Mr. Beale? You get up on your little twenty-one inch screen and howl about America and democracy. There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM, and ITT, and AT&T, and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today.

What do you think the Russians talk about in their councils of state, Karl Marx? They get out their linear programming charts, statistical decision theories, minimax solutions, and compute the price-cost probabilities of their transactions and investments, just like we do.

We no longer live in a world of nations and ideologies, Mr. Beale. The world is a college of corporations, inexorably determined by the immutable bylaws of business. The world is a business, Mr. Beale. It has been since man crawled out of the slime. And our children will live, Mr. Beale, to see that... perfect world... in which there's no war or famine, oppression or brutality. One vast and ecumenical holding company, for whom all men will work to serve a common profit, in which all men will hold a share of stock. All necessities provided, all anxieties tranquilized, all boredom amused.

binary132about 2 hours ago
The prevailing mentality seems to be that if we don’t win in the next three quarters it will be such a catastrophe that there won’t be a future at all.
deadbabeabout 3 hours ago
At any given time, there are large numbers of influential people with no long term horizons, only a short one that is rapidly approaching. For these people, a good 5-10 more years may be all they really need. That’s why we need to invent life extension tech that gives elites more incentive to think long term, even if most regular people only live normal lifespans.
pjc50about 1 hour ago
Absolutely not. The only thing saving us from these people and their senility is the knowledge that they will eventually die.

(Obama is so far the only US president born after 1946)

wat10000about 2 hours ago
That’s why we need to tax billionaires into oblivion. The solution isn’t to make them immortal in the hopes that this somehow makes them benevolent, it’s to ensure nobody has that kind of power in the first place.
datsci_est_2015about 2 hours ago
I’m reminded of the recent study claiming that British imperial activities had a negligible impact on the quality of life for non-elites, but was enormously enriching for the elites. Tough to take entirely seriously due to no perfect control sample, but it’s at least provocative to me to consider this: all this pain and suffering for what? The worst person you can imagine being able to piss in a gold toilet and grope women (and men) of a questionable age with coerced consent?

From 1945 to Reagan may have been one of the most extraordinary times for the “middle class” of any nation in the history of the world. The distribution of wealth kept pace with the advances of efficiency. What a privilege it must be to have been an adult in a non-discriminated class during that period, and the honeymoon phase that kept steam until the Great Recession.

jmward01about 2 hours ago
I think it is past time to admit that a lot of the roots of our current issues, both culturally and economically, can be traced back to the Regan era. Culture wars have always been a thing, but 'the moral majority' throwing out reason for emotion and economic policy glorifying the short term gain of the rich because it will 'eventually' benefit the poor got a real boost under Regan and then Bush. The results of that, unlike the promised economics, have been trickling down ever sense.
BLKNSLVRabout 1 hour ago
The winners of WWII basked in their own glory for far too long, constantly looking back at a grand victory instead of looking forward to ensure a grand future.

The march of technology papered over a lot of cracks, but the cracks keep on growing.

burnteabout 1 hour ago
Yep, they were the vanguard of "fuck you I need to get mine at all costs."
roenxiabout 3 hours ago
I don't think we can say this one is a distraction - historically the US dollar has involved the "secret" deal [0] where the US was trading military protection in the Middle East for having a major energy supplier only accept dollars. Probably some other similar shenanigans going on that aren't public too.

I imagine the US's poor showing against Iran and the implied inability to coerce medium powers is a factor in the decision making of the serious buyers of US treasuries. It has never been entirely clear how much value the US military's ability to control global trade really backed the dollar; but Trump's style is to hit people with every possible threat and reason to do what he wants in case it helps.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocurrency#1970_to_2000

dofmabout 2 hours ago
Smart people helped him be the candidate.

People who didn't mind that he is a racist, xenophobic, anti-semitic, bigoted philandering malignant narcissist grifter made him president.

Intelligent lawyers degraded themselves to make it happen again.

I do think trying to backdate the idea that intelligent people are behind Trump's rise because supposedly intelligent people are now on the Trump train for their own expedient reasons ignores that the beginning of the Trump movement was grounded in his explicitly bigoted and racist proclamations.

It's not like he came down the escalator with any pitch to intelligent people. Appeals to hatred, bigotry, conspiracy theories and racism were a key plank of how he drove his candidacy from the very beginning. Enough Americans chose this revolting human being as their avatar to make it happen. Twice.

Nobody was conned by intelligent people: they went along with the racist carnival huckster.

throw0101dabout 1 hour ago
> People who didn't mind that he is a racist, xenophobic, anti-semitic, bigoted philandering malignant narcissist grifter made him president.

It's not that they "didn't mind", but many probably were happy that he was those things:

> If you’re a racist, you found your guy. If you’re a misogynist, you found your guy. If money is your only religion, you found your guy. If your heart is armored shut, you found your guy. If you mock the disabled, you found your guy. If intelligence makes you insecure, you found your guy. If you’re a sexual predator, you found your guy. If you trade in humiliation and conspiracy and filth, you found your guy.

> If you’ve never done a single hour of emotional inventory, you found your guy. If you cheat, stiff contractors, bankrupt your obligations, and call it savvy, you found your guy. If you lie as easily as you breathe, you found your guy. If cruelty feels like strength, you found your guy. If white grievance is your comfort food, you found your guy. If your ego is a black hole no title can fill, you found your guy. If warmongering fuels your ego, you found your guy, If empathy feels like weakness and dominance feels like oxygen, you found your guy.

> If he’d only carried one or two of these pathologies, he might have been dismissed as just another loud, damaged man. But he carried a buffet of them. That was the appeal. Millions could locate themselves somewhere in the wreckage. They didn’t have to agree with all of it. They just had to recognize a piece of themselves in it.

> It was never really about him. It was about the validation. The absolution. The permission. He didn’t invent the resentment; he amplified it. He didn’t create the cruelty; he normalized it. He gave millions the intoxicating relief of hearing their ugliest impulses echoed back at rally volume.

[…]

* Michael Jochum, Not Just a Drummer: Reflections on Art, Politics, Dogs, and the Human Condition

trashb18 minutes ago
> But he carried a buffet of them

You could argue that the buffet was so large that combined with confirmation bias people often didn't see or believe the statements at the other side of the buffet. Allowing the convincing of opposite groups to both offer support.

This is very different from "traditional" politics where often one group is supported and the other fought.

dofm15 minutes ago
> It's not that they "didn't mind", but many probably were happy that he was those things.

I think many of them were determined not to vote for a Clinton, or a woman, or that particular female Clinton, and they casually brushed off the very evident problems with his character to vote for him.

There are also moderate, supposedly principled Republicans who you would think would vote for a hawkish conservative Democrat over a revolting malignant narcissist philandering racist bigot and crook, but no.

So no, I think "didn't mind" is the right phrasing for the people with selective morality who pushed him over the edge to elected. They are negligent, immoral people who don't really have a problem with any bigotry not directed at them. They didn't pay it any attention. Not their problem, don't mind it.

All the evidence is "didn't mind" won it for him again, right? He wasn't going to come for the law-obiding immigrants, just the bad ones, etc. etc.

GolfPopperabout 1 hour ago
I was in college in the run-up to Trump's election. I knew a lot of left-leaning people who were very tired of the neo-liberal status quo, and who were willing to put their time and money into making Obama's promised but undelivered change into something real. And then along came Donald Trump, and, "OMG look how awful he is! Vote Blue No Matter Who!"

It's a sucker's game, and the voters on both sides of the spectrum get taken again and again and again. "Sure, Our Politicians are Bad, but the Other Side's Politicians are Much Worse!" Voting for the lesser evil for decades is just taking the scenic route to Hell as a country.

Meanwhile, no matter who's in charge, there's always just enough votes in Congress for military spending and corporate bailouts, but never enough votes for any sort of significant populist economics or meaningful regulation that might push back against the billionaire/big corporation stranglehold on the country and government. (President Obama, with a working Democratic majority, delivered... a national health care plan designed by the right-libertarian Cato Institute and pioneered at the state level by his Republican opponent Mitt Romney.)

dofm19 minutes ago
> And then along came Donald Trump, and, "OMG look how awful he is! Vote Blue No Matter Who!"

And that would have been the correct choice. Because he's not just the worst person to be president, he was very clearly, even in 2015, among a small handful of the worst people with any kind of following to ever run for the job (maybe not as bad as David Duke, at least as bad as Lyndon LaRouche).

It's really simple: if there are two candidates with a chance of running for the job and only one of them is very evidently a malignant narcissist, you pick the other one. Regardless of their policies!

Trump was easily identifiable as erratic, self-centred and profoundly dangerous and that has been borne out.

(You'll get no argument from me that Mitt Romney got a raw deal both from timing and from the old school of political rough-and-tumble, especially seeing as he's often to the left of Gavin Newsom)

sghiassyabout 2 hours ago
… and yet America voted for him a second time. I just don’t get why
DangitBobbyabout 2 hours ago
Even now when things have gone so far off the rails, the average American knows basically nothing about what's going on. There's a ton of information but no reliable way to split it from misinformation, so people just glom on to whatever aligns with their worldview. Our future feels pretty hopeless to me.
mmoossabout 1 hour ago
Nothing is happening because you aren't doing anything and are even spreading hopelessness! Imagine someone at work or on a team who acted that way. It's psyops for the opposition. It is the behavior of losers (sorry).

The main obstacle for the opposition is itself.

mmoossabout 1 hour ago
> I just don’t get why

That behavior is the cause. The question must be answered, and if you haven't answered it after 8 (since 2016) or 26 (since 2000) or more years, you aren't trying.

How does the Republican party do these things without losing votes? The likely causes seem obvious to me, but the real problem is that people who oppose them need to believe again that they can do anything, that they are responsible, that they won't be stopped, and stop accepting helplessness.

jsiepkesabout 1 hour ago
> and yet America voted for him a second time.

Well, a lot of them didn't vote for him. Roughly a third of eligible voters stayed home (actually the largest group) while Trump and Harris each got a bit under a third, with Trump narrowly ahead.

But yeah, I guess its still baffling about 31% voted for him.

watwutabout 2 hours ago
Project 2025 ain't gonna implement itself.
chrisjjabout 3 hours ago
Next he'll be bombing US states guilty of 'election fraud'.
pjc50about 4 hours ago
The military threats include burning down other countries.

Now, people accept the "no angel" defense for Iran and Venezuela. Just like a cop is allowed to execute someone in the street if they have a criminal record. But now we have to work out how serious the threats against Western countries are, or whether they're just routine Trump bullshit for social media. Is there a real prospect of the use of force against Canada, or Canadian nationals in the US? Is there a limit to the trade sanctions? If the US can sanction individual ICC members, can't they exert pressure on Carney by debanking him too?

exceptioneabout 4 hours ago
We know from crime that the only way to solve a crisis is to escalate, because that is what zero-sum dynamics basically forces one too. In that process, everything becomes a tool and there is barely anything that is off-limits.

Putting aside the possible change of guards with the other party getting into power, the USA are long-term heading to a serious crisis. The dems were able to reduce deficits in the past (a bit surprisingly because that contradicts the narrative), but I think their space for maneuvering is getting increasingly small. There is a serious possibility that notwithstanding efforts to save the ship the long term trend cannot be reversed because so many critical processes had been set in motion, about which control has been lost.

What happens after a decade? You can do the math. A disgruntled electorate want final solutions to an increasingly heavier crisis. It takes real states(wo)men to re-architect the USA in favor of the public. Also, if you ever open 'social' media or regular media even, you could experience first-hand how hard it has become to reach the public. The vested interests are not willing to give up their power.

rawgabbitabout 2 hours ago
When a debt crisis occurs, there is only one good option and many bad ones. The good option is the debt holders realize they need to compromise and are willing to forgive part of the debt for proper governance. ie. forgive part of the debt as long as the US adheres to a strict budget which involves raising taxes and cutting services. And no more giving out tax breaks and tax holidays as if they were free.

All the other options are infinitely worse. The problem is that such a deal is political suicide. MAGA will run on repealing the deal like they ran on dismantling Obama care. They are the party of financial self immolation.

digitaltreesabout 2 hours ago
The window is still pretty large. Raising taxes at low to moderate levels would be sufficient to close the gap and restore confidence in debt without slowing the economy.

The problem is that every time democrats make progress republicans pass massive tax cuts. Four successive republican administrations have passed massive tax cuts. Trump alone is responsible for 30% of all debt.

The problem is that voters punish anyone who raise taxes. The first bush lost reelection because he broke his “read my lips no new taxes promise” when he was actually trying to behave responsibly.

classifiedabout 2 hours ago
Exactly. He and his accomplices don't give a flying fuck whether the whole country goes down in flames, because they already have fuck-you money, and they're only getting richer. That's why arguing about how incompetent, demented, or whatever he is misses the point completely. And the "incompetence" of his underlings doing the work of destruction is a feature, not a bug in this scheme. The chaos they sow is the perfect cover to do what they want unhindered while everyone else is distracted. It would be beautiful if it weren't so unfathomably evil.
snarfyabout 4 hours ago
"Give us money to pay for our military or else our military will intervene"
flanked-everglabout 2 hours ago
Which institutions has Trump burned down?
smcgabout 1 hour ago
Scientific funding is in crisis.
financetechbroabout 2 hours ago
The federal government? Ever heard of DOGE??
nick49488171about 1 hour ago
I'm not a psychopath but how are we supposed to fix the deficit without something like DOGE that can cut programs.
flanked-everglabout 1 hour ago
Are you saying that the federal government in the US is no longer an institution? This is news to me. Is there some reporting on this which specifies the exact constitutional obligations that the federal government must adhere to that it no longer adhering to? As far as I am aware the US federal government is still operational and is still carrying out all its constitutional duties. I guess I was severely misinformed. Thank you for clarifying and for the sources you will provide which specifies the exact constitutional functions it must provide that it's no longer providing.
pu_peabout 3 hours ago
Almost everything this administration does is inflationary. You cannot have tariffs, oil crisis, tax cuts, high debt spending without long-term investors getting worried that they won't meaningfully get their money back in 10 or 20 years from now.
cowboylowrezabout 2 hours ago
Trump is surrounded by people whom appear subservient under the sort of shallow gaze that Trump can muster if he tries hard enough, but in reality Trump is of course a tool, yes a pretty clumsy one who keeps trying to remind you who is the president here, but he is just following carrots dangled by very smart people with the means to keep Trump feeling the endorphins that Trump believes he is entitled to for winning in 2024.

And I gotta be honest, the carrot danglers don't seem to have a prosperous and thriving democracy in mind as one of their goals lol

BLKNSLVRabout 1 hour ago
There's a version of smart that they may be, but it's not a version of smart that is generally a parent of children they care about.

The future they're creating, no matter how much money they have and pass on, is going to be worse for their children and grandchildren. That's not smart, that's incredibly selfish and, regarding biological legacy, self-defeating.

usrnmabout 3 hours ago
How much of it is "the current administration" and how much is simply the continuation of a much longer trend? The US has been at war with this or that country in the Middle East for as long as I'm alive and I'm almost 40. Same with tax cuts, high spending and so on. It's easy to blame everything on Trump (or Reagan), but it seems to be a much broader issue with the whole system
snarf21about 3 hours ago
Yes, this has been going on a long time. However, I think there is quite a bit of data about who is in charge or the White House and Congress when taxes go down/up or the deficit goes down/up, etc. It doesn't take more than one online search to see a very distinct pattern.
smallmancontrovabout 2 hours ago

    Democrats          Change in Deficit
    ---------          -----------------
    Joe Biden              -6.1% GDP
    Barack Obama           -6.4% GDP
    Bill Clinton           -5.0% GDP
    Jimmy Carter           -0.2% GDP

    Republicans        Change in Deficit
    -----------        -----------------
    Donald Trump           +8.6% GDP
    George W. Bush        +11.0% GDP
    George H. W. Bush      +1.1% GDP
    Ronald Reagan          +0.2% GDP
    Gerald Ford            +2.3% GDP
    Richard Nixon          +0.7% GDP
    Dwight Eisenhower      -1.1% GDP
digitaltreesabout 2 hours ago
Clinton balanced the budget. There was a surplus. Go read Articles from the 90s there was fear that we would pay down the debt too fast and it would harm the economy.

Obama was on tracy to reduce the deficit and likely would have had the financial crisis not required stimulus.

Biden was using debt to invest in infrastructure and things like power generation that would yield returns unlike tax cuts that just exacerbate wealth concentration and inflation by asset appreciation due to capital chasing the same assets.

It’s not symmetrical one party is driving this and the irony is that they are the “fiscally responsible” party.

No amount of discipline is possible for democrats if every time they balance the budget republicans use the savings to cut taxes further.

mmoossabout 2 hours ago
Biden also had to respond to the deflationary risk of the Covid pandemic.
BLKNSLVRabout 1 hour ago
Most definitely. Trump just added a little bit of gunpowder to a fire that was already burning pretty self sustainably. Just a little turbo boost to get to the dark future a bit quicker.

If the fire wasn't already burning, Trump wouldn't have been able to bring such a number of cronies together - just look at the tech bros, they already had everything, but they still chose to lick the boot because they want moar!

cjs_acabout 4 hours ago
The vaguepost by Bessent in today’s Financial Times looked pretty weak: https://www.ft.com/content/cb865200-1a06-40be-86a3-10ee2bb05...
SanjayMehtaabout 3 hours ago
He sounds like an extortionist. I particularly liked the reference to "America's tolerance."

https://archive.ph/2026.08.24-074023/https://www.ft.com/cont...

Havocabout 1 hour ago
They’re just lining up the Xth once in a lifetime crisis for millennials…
jmclnxabout 3 hours ago
All that has to happen to fix this is taxes. The ultra rich tax's need to be raised to a level the US had before Reagan. Instead the people running the US want the poor and middle-class to pay for everything and enrich the rich even more.

Until that is fixed, the US will end up as a banana republic with lots of nukes.

> rates on mortgage loans and other long-term lending across the economy – are walloping his popularity, helping freeze the housing market

Looking like 2007 again ? The GOP loves flirting with creating a massive depression.

hattmallabout 3 hours ago
2007 was very different. There was an entire industry propped up by artificially manufactured speculative demand. This was a real industry that produced loads of jobs,drove downstream industries and had significant involvement from a huge portion of the population.
nilamoabout 2 hours ago
Thank you for describing AI.
BLKNSLVRabout 1 hour ago
I was waiting for an "... oh, wait" at the end.
zdragnarabout 2 hours ago
> All that has to happen to fix this is taxes. The ultra rich tax's need to be raised to a level the US had before Reagan.

What was inflation like before Regan?

budman1about 1 hour ago
Inflation was really solved when Volker raised the interest rates. Nixon, Ford, Carter all struggled with rising prices.

Strange enough, I was alive back then and clearly remember my grandmother applauding Nixon's attempt to 'freeze prices'. Did not work.

The numbers published by the government may not reflect how it is felt in the populace. I think the current inflation is 'worse' than the 1970's. One thing is that wages were getting bumped all the time to compensate; not something we see today.

Strong agree. Raise taxes for everyone (except those at the bottom, please). Draw the line wherever you want, we can argue about where, but it has to be drawn.

zdragnar17 minutes ago
> Inflation was really solved when Volker raised the interest rates.

That was my point

> Strong agree. Raise taxes for everyone (except those at the bottom, please).

Again, what does this have to do with inflation? I'm not even questioning the (de)merits of the current tax rates, but pointing out that the tax rates before Regan were in no way correlated to low inflation.

mmoossabout 1 hour ago
What does inflation have to do with the tax rate for the wealthiest? Also, IIRC I read the climate cooled a little in the 1970s - can we attribute that to the tax rate too?
zdragnar20 minutes ago
That's the point- they're different issues
coredog64about 1 hour ago
Once again, I'm begging you, with tears in my eyes to learn the difference between statutory and effective tax rates. Do I disagree that there were headline rates of 70%? No. Did anyone pay those rates on any meaningful amount of their income? Also no.
digitaltrees7 minutes ago
Again I beg you to wipe the tears from your eyes and look at the data. Wealth inequality was significantly lower from 1940 to 1980, the gap between CEO and worker pays was orders of magnitude lower.

Taxe rates demonstrably reduced wealthy estates over time

We are now at levels of disparity greater than the guilded age. Consumers are about to run out of credit at which point there will be a Great Depression level contraction.

nsvd2about 4 hours ago
The bottom line is that the country cannot spend more than it makes in tax income indefinitely and anyone who says otherwise is delusional. Unfortunately, I think the reckoning for all this debt will come sooner than many people expect.
pedrocrabout 4 hours ago
You can deficit spend indefinitely as long as your deficit percentage is below your economic growth percentage. That keeps the total debt as percentage of the economy stable and the amount of tax you need to service the debt a stable percentage of your total tax.

If you do that it can be a good idea. It's a way to accelerate investment. It can also be a good idea to modulate your deficit in a cycle counter to the economy so that it acts as a stabilizer.

The US has been failing on all these. The deficits are too large and are high both in good and bad times. Eventually that breaks things.

mminer237about 3 hours ago
Infinite growth is impossible, therefore the deficit has to be paid down some day.
pedrocr33 minutes ago
Infinite growth is possible as long as your economy trades things that are not physically constrained. Art can grow in value over time without hitting any constraints. And even if your economy doesn't grow in real terms, to service debt all you need is for the economy to grow in nominal terms, to have inflation. And even if your economy stagnates completely and has zero inflation you just need to bring your deficit to zero to maintain the debt level. Every year you can just pay the interest on the debt from taxes and your debt as percentage of the economy stays stable without ever paying down the debt.
rich_sashaabout 4 hours ago
Sort of yes and no. I don’t think indefinite spending was ever on the cards.

But if other countries tried to maintain the levels of US deficit / debt, they were given far less lenience from investors, in pressure / yields. This was because US was seen as, on the whole, fiscally responsible, very productive, and safer from shocks - to the point that when the US mortgage crisis exploded, the safe haven for assets was… the US.

As these assumptions are challenged, the US is waking up to what the European old economies experienced following 2008. Increasingly yields, increasing costs of borrowing etc.

If you’re reliably printing good GDP growth, higher level of debt may be good as it gives you more leverage, and drives more growth in turn. But leverage is a multiplier and it isn’t free, so if the engine sputters, you might find yourself falling out of the car at a greater speed…

mono442about 4 hours ago
A debt crisis like in eurozone countries in 2008 is very unlikely to happen in the US. For it to happen, it would require the fed working against the us government.
rich_sashaabout 2 hours ago
Well, the US clearly has far, far more rope than Greece or Italy. Question is, is that a buffer, or a perfect noose in the making.

The Fed seems already constrained by the administration to not raise rates. Yields went up anyway. US primary deficit is huge and so debt to GDP is accelerating from different angles - interest, increased spending, increased yield demand based off uncontrolled inflation expectations etc.

In fact I suspect that the mega-pivot to AI is an attempt to solve the problem by massively inflating GDP, so that the debt doesn’t matter - ie radically grow the economy. It remains to be seen if it pays off and solves US’s problems.

At the end of the day, the US cannot escape from the forces that drowned Greece - inflation, investor confidence, debt spiral. It’s totally avoidable, but the US seems determined to race full speed ahead at it. Let’s see if Trump can play chicken with economics.

stephen_gabout 3 hours ago
That’s not true, because it would have to mean that money is created by the private sector (or just magically springs into existence somewhere) and that taxing it is the only way for the Government to get it.

Money is a created thing, a creature of the state. We maintain certain fictions about it (like “tax to spend”, allowing the market to set bond yields most of the time and keeping track of the outstanding bonds as “government debt”) because people are scared that Governments wouldn’t be controlled enough to manage money creation if they overtly used the powers they have to issue currency… But effectively they still kind of do it…

And while it’s not perfect it’s actually far more stable than attempts at fixed exchange rates and pegging currency to commodities like gold (which always fails eventually, because it doesn’t stand to reason that the amount of gold or any other commodity in a country would correspond to how much money the economy needs. You can set the exchange rate but it always drifts, so those periods tended to swing between big deflation and then inflation, with panics, recessions, and financial crises every few years)

digitaltreesabout 1 hour ago
Most money is created by the private sector. Thats was fractional reserve banking is, creating money.
pjc50about 4 hours ago
The reckoning will be put on Democrats. It's quite hard to do this while the Republicans hold all the power, but as soon as it flips the media will care again.
dgellowabout 4 hours ago
I think countries can, but there is a limit to how much debt you can have. It’s fine and even likely better for countries to have some deficit, but not $40T while also starting a war with Iran and imposing random tariffs that destabilize the world economy (+ attacking your allies, and all the other things Trump has done over the past decade, including adding an insane amount to the deficit)
Krutoniumabout 4 hours ago
For anyone not aware just how much: A quarter of it. A quarter of all US debt happened under Trump.
ck2about 2 hours ago
remember the utter destruction of the economy by the Bush administration?

everyone was so relieved when he was finally flown away for the last time by Marine One, he couldn't do any more damage

well this is round two, just keep voting for this kinda of garbage corruption

pray for a full impeachment because otherwise two more years is going to leave a burning dumpster fire of a country (but Vance maybe even worse)

his drapes! his golden statues! his ballroom! his ARC! his helipad! his flagpoles!

his image on passports, gold coins, $250 bill, park passes! 100 foot banners of his image on federal buildings!

renaming warships and airports after him while still in office

ONE BILLION DOLLARS in taxpayer funded renovations for all his nonsense in DC

ANOTHER BILLION DOLLARS stolen from nuclear missile maintenance for his QatarForceOne

$6 Million per day in pardons and other grift

$2 Million every weekend for his golf outings

go on, tell me any other administration from any party was ever this insanely corrupt

now imagine what else he is doing to the country, selling federal land, got the CIA mucking around in Greenland and who knows where else

and he's definitely doing Cuba after November

wat10000about 2 hours ago
This is round three. Half the electorate saw round two and said, “more of that, please.” That’s why we’re fucked, not because of the particular idiot they chose.
SmirkingRevengeabout 1 hour ago
Half of America thinks the only way to solve Republican-caused disasters is to elect more Republicans
mono442about 4 hours ago
A garbage article. Yields went down after the housing bubble in 2007 because the central bank interest rates were lowered, not because the investors decided to flock to a safe asset.

Yields are high because the inflation is also running high and it doesn't like it will come down anytime soon so the central bank interest rates will also be kept at a higher level.

Long term bonds can be replaced with short term bonds which are constantly rolled over. The bond yields are pricing in the future interest rates, nothing more.

inigyouabout 3 hours ago
Treasury interest rates just decoupled from bond yields. That's the news.

They were only coupled in the first place because treasuries were seen as the safest of havens. That means everything else had to pay more interest than them. So is that no longer the case?

The last Fed meeting saw high inflation and decided not to adjust interest rates, with the stated reasoning that the market will fix it by itself. This could be how the market fixes it by itself.

CapmCrackaWakaabout 3 hours ago
Check out the federal funds rate over the last 5 years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds

Vs the 30 year bond yield: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30

That’s the news. The fed is desperately trying to get interest rates lower, but the free market isn’t buying it. The treasury is also pulling out some very desperate moves to control this, like selling euro for JPY without even telling the EU, we will see how it works out.

mono442about 2 hours ago
30 year old bond yield being 1-2% above the short term yield is nothing unusual
svachalekabout 2 hours ago
Their point is directional. Fed is lowering rates but yields are rising.
exceptioneabout 3 hours ago

  > Long term bonds can be replaced with short term bonds which are constantly rolled over
Bessent tried that, didn't work to calm down the bond yields. Unless you meant the USA is not interested in longer term bonds, which is obviously untrue, because Bessent is intervening.

  > The bond yields are pricing in the future interest rates
For investors, the price is the risk they want to get compensation for. The investors are increasingly worried about the credibility of the USA. Sure, the USA can print dollars, but Banana Economics Class teaches you that trying to inflate oneself out of debt with reckless printing will have some adversarial effects. You can't fool smart money that easily.
PowerElectronixabout 4 hours ago
selling stocks and buying bonds in a recession where interest rates go down (so bonds are priced higher) and expected revenue for most sectors go down is a no brainer.

Agree, but there's also the expectation of future debt. A bigger debt means a bigger issuance of bonds, so the new supply-demand equilibrium moves the rates higher as it's the only way to convince investors to allocate more to bonds.

Technically, yes, but if you create demand for long term bonds and create supply for short term ones, you'll flatten the yield curve and pay long term yields for short term durations.

timaclesabout 2 hours ago
We are in a different phase of Capitalism, real interest rates will be kept low mechanically. Nominal Inflation rate will always be lied about. Bonds holders will lose value by design.

The governments and central banks across the world have no other choice. Corporations and big money have robbed our world of capital and are now changing the game to pull up the ladder behind them