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Discussion (16 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews
So it's certainly interesting!
That said, particle physics history is full of 3 sigma particle "discoveries" that disappeared with more data. They're collecting more, so hopefully we'll learn more in a few more years.
[1] https://lz.lbl.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2026/08/LZ_Pre...
It was a fascinating experience as a junior member to follow the collaboration internal conversation and investigation on this, because a lot of extremely principled scientists were clearly deeply worried about losing their hard earned reputation. In the end, I am convinced that we were simply unlucky.
[2] https://arxiv.org/pdf/0712.2843
It's stories like this that raise my p(we are in a simulation).
They were pretty model agnostic in what they were looking for. They modeled and simulated a number of different ways a WIMP could interact with normal matter. If this is a discovery, more data will be needed to figure out the nature of that interaction and how it fits into particle physics.
But there's always a chance it's something completely new, or some extremely rare manifestation of things we already know about, but have never seen before. And even if it is WIMP, it may not be the right type of WIMP (wrong mass, or wrong interaction strength) to explain cosmological dark matter.
Very hard to manage jumping the gun by reporters. Sounds like they saw some new data. No idea what it is.
Looking forward to the follow up.
The difference: LUX-ZEPLIN, which is underground, is waiting to detect a dark matter particle itself. On the other hand, NGRST seeks to observe the effects of dark matter.
Additionally, when a particle interacts with the nucleus, the ratio of how much energy ends up as scintillation light versus ionization is different than when a particle interacts with an electron, which is most of the background processes.
Then, whatever is left, they try to model using known processes. After all that, there's one event that they can't account for. And that's what the news is about.
It sounds like this implies they've seen 3x more events but it seems like they would have said that if it were the case. Have they just gathered more data about the single event or is this 4 separate events they're talking about?
As they better understand the detector, they can use more of that mass. They have data from it, but they just didn't use it. And they're always collecting more data, too, as time passes.
So the 3x is saying they have something like 8.5 tonne-years of data.
Hopefully it the new data may have 3 additional events, or perhaps 2 or perhaps 4 or perhaps 10 or perhaps... Or the reported event may be false event caused by a lucky coincidence, and they may find 0 additional events.