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Unless they both dramatically slash prices then they’re in big trouble. Neither of them can afford to do that and both desperately need to convince the street that the opposite will happen if they want any hope at a successful IPO.
However the cold reality for both is that there is zero moat to a model anymore. It’s a pure commodity. Those selling compute and access to open models are gearing up to wipe the floor with Open AI and Anthropic.
Over time I can imagine us becoming mostly open models on our deployments when hardware is more accessible and the need for expensive frontier models is constrained to very few use-cases that might demand their capabilities.
But Claude also makes it really hard to do that, so what am I even really paying for? Time to extract all my data, put it into a sqlite with FTS5 and make sure I never rely on the overly-opinionated, low-thinking PMs from these giant orgs again.
Of course, that "easy" step has lots of partial solutions like CTK (Conversation Toolkit) or MyChatArchive and I haven't found the perfect one yet, ideally it'd be something that dumped everything into Obsidian or an Obsidian-alike, but surely somebody is working on that? I'd pay $5/month for somebody to solve that problem for me, as long as I still owned the data...
I’d try:
1 exporting my data (I imagine it’s common outside of GDPR?)
2 asking Claude to convert it to an easily digestible format :)
I think there will be separate and huge markets for models, hardware and compute. That will maximize competition and innovation.
Why? Because even Blind Freddy can see the huge usefulness and power of these (and future non-LLM) models and no-one in their right mind is interested in becoming OpenAI's or Anthropic's bitch. Those companies have tickets on themselves.
Given the recent behavior of tech companies and the US administration, no one trusts either anymore.
Maybe there is some threshold where the price/quality math for your standard business tips in favor of smaller models and self-hosting the entire stack. I'd certainly love that.
The problem is serving is a skill readily mastered by the hyperscalers. That's their MO.
All they need is weights to serve. And the open models provide that.
OpenAI is relatively well placed in that they have inference chips they've designed and they own compute.
Keep in mind that a vanishingly small number of workers are SWE's churning millions of tokens daily.
Not everybody is coding or doing work that lends itself to burning tokens for warmth. Reuters for example seems to be more interested in using it for research, editing and formatting citations and the like. There's only so much of that work that needs doing, it doesn't always need to be real-time, and they probably don't see it scaling exponentially. They also need to be very aware and in control of their model's biases, or they risk it compromising their work output.
It's widely expected that all of the major providers will need to - and surely want to - drastically raise prices to justify the ludicrous amount of capital they're burning. Multiple companies have already talked about how their AI costs have exploded, and from what I understand that scale of enterprise is paying API rates. I would be disappointed if big business wasn't having a think about what that liability could look like. It's one thing to be reliant on a relatively "stable" vendor like Microsoft for Windows and Office, another to get AWS sticker shock, and then this is promising to be an order of magnitude worse.
Then just plain trust. What if ChatGPT starts recommending your competitors products, or the USA bars export of Anthropic's latest model (again, but for real this time), or they stop serving a model your business now depends on, and so on... That's a lot of risk to leave outside of your control.
We've all seen the office spaces where there's 200 empty computers on a floor. Combined, it's something like 500 cores at ~3 Ghz each and around 3 TB of RAM. The networking is already there and software like exo already exists.
I couldn’t care less which company drilled for the oil… it’s all the same to me. Models are increasingly no different.
OpenAI and Anthropic are a gas station saying “buy our gas for 10x the price!” When the world is looking at them saying it’s just gas, we’ll take the cheaper brand. We’ve tested your gas and it’s really no better than the stuff that’s 1/10th the price.
Thats why their present business plan is screwed.
I agree 90% of the world can work with 87 gas, but there's always niche/luxury market where 93 can make small difference.
(edit: typo)
> Unless they both dramatically slash prices then they’re in big trouble
False, they have already done so many times.
> Neither of them can afford to do that and both desperately need to convince the street that the opposite will happen if they want any hope at a successful IPO.
False, margins are higher and I can have a formal bet that prices will go lower.
> However the cold reality for both is that there is zero moat to a model anymore
False, LLMs are not fungible and there exists a natural moat. I like the behaviour of Fable, not the behaviour of Opus - the fact that many people speak about this is evidence.
We’re heading into corporate budget season for 2027 when all this is coming under a huge microscope in boardroom after boardroom across the country at a terrible time for companies trying to IPO.
Not a tech company though, so maybe that differs and we’re just behind what’s en vogue. However we did get in on everything pretty early, building our ChatGPT RAG clone right about when azure got gpt-3.5-turbo on api
I'm wondering how much of that is the harness vs the model. Overall, the 'feel' of a model seems to be largely due to the harness than the model itself.
Is this a typo? Have you actually made a formal bet on a prediction market or something to put your money where your mouth is, or are you just saying that you could? There's a lot of things I could plausibly make bets on, but that doesn't mean that they're likely to happen.
The most insidious advertising in the world is about to be surfaced as people use LLMs to look for product recommendations.
Because they've been trained to think "cloud-first" for a decade?
but if there's roughly Sonnet 4.6 level capable open small models, then I'd be impressed
This makes sense since corporations require legal certainty, and using an open model from an American company (probably) provides them some level of indemnity, and also someone to sue.
Counterparty risk is a lot more straight-forward to evaluate when dealing entirely within the US, with US companies.
But if you let LLMs talk to people (customers, for example) directly, then yes, you need an LLM provider that you can hold responsible.
The link is annoying enough to find that I can imagine "Mea Culpa" being an effective enough strategy for businesses moving into the ML/AI field, changing their tune after they get caught, but matured their own software to stand on its own feet.
The thing is that needs more attention is reverse engineered a LLM which is highly fascinating. I tried it, but it seems I am not there yet to put it mildly. It requires serious effort.
I am just speculating but can LLMs be sleepers? You write software and it seeds traces here and there under certain conditions that pose a serious security risk.
Or a kill switch?
I don’t know. I distrust Chinese LLMs but even more due to training data.
It is after all not a Western model. Different biases and the might be subtle but nevertheless substantial.
In short: no open source LLM may be usable without additional Finetuning for certain valid use cases.
The real value is versioning and autonomy as well as lot more stable answering despite model rot.
Also testing and the supporting systems are easier to maintain.
It is mainly an infrastructure challenge.
The overwhelmingly vast majority of open-source code isn't actually looked at or audited. Yes it's there for all to see, but that doesn't mean it's doing any good at the moment, in this context.
Corporal, put him away.
> By May, open models accounted for 20 percent of AT&T’s A.I. use. That has since risen to 40 percent and may jump to 60 percent in the coming months, Mr. Markus said in an interview.
This is missing a crucial detail. We know they "help with customer service, call transcription and coding", but which of those have been upgrade to open models?
Call transcription is trivial to do with open models. I can run Whisper or Parakeet on a low-spec laptop.
"Customer service" could mean a lot of things, but it sounds feasible for open models too.
"Coding" - they might go to open models for that, but I expect the costs involved in paying for closed models for software developers within AT&T are a fraction of the costs involved in transcribing all of their calls or handling aspects of custom service for millions of customers.
From later in the story:
> AT&T researches Chinese models but is not using them, Mr. Markus said. Instead, it is working with popular alternatives made by American companies such as the Gemma A.I. model from Google and the Llama A.I. models from Meta.
Gemma 4 is great, but really, Llama, in 2026?
I'm sure this will change (and I can't wait for it!) but as of today, open models might be fine for summarizing and writing docs, but you need SOTA to work on code if you want to be competitive.
LLMs were useful for coding ever since GPT3 (copilot), and sonnet 3.5 for agentic coding.
I also work in software, and while I vaguely disagree that open models can't be used (they absolutely fit into productive niches here, and holy hell are the last generation [ex laguna s1, kimi k3, glm 5.3, etc] actually decent) - I will agree that SOTA are a better fit for software development, especially when used in conjunction with an already very expensive employee who's driving them.
But for "Corporate America"... no. You absolutely don't need SOTA. They're doing things like transcription, summarization, customer interaction, minor technical tasks like form creation in existing tools, report generation (ex - powerpoint, pdf, docs, etc) and other general "white collar tasks". Think about roles in business that are in the 60-85k compensation range.
It's mostly busy work that keeps existing processes flowing and the business on the rails. Important, but not research/novel.
And cheap ai... is a wonderful fit for a lot of this. No one wants to replace an employee making 80k with a less reliable AI that costs 45k a year in tokens (SOTA). But they're absolutely willing to drop 2-3k/year on AI (~100/month - right in the open model cost range) for that employee if they can get a 10% bump in productivity or happiness.
Seems like if you ask 5 different people what "real coding" means you might get 5 different answers.
Not everyone is building the next framework or compiler.
Self-hosted Qwen 3.8 @Q4 on my RTX 3090 can produce beautiful functional CRUD pages and apps all day long. And that is 90% of the "real coding" being done in corporate settings.
The quote in the article about Mazda vs. Maserati captures this. Many might want the Maserati and drool over its specs and capabilities, but balk at the cost and how often are they really going to run it up to full performance limits on their daily commute to their cubicle?
I use opensource models at work because my work is too cheap to spring for a $20/mo account for me. Since HuggingFace models can be run on my laptop now (still very slow though), nothing is leaving the 'secure environment' and so I can actually get work done (instead of the 'old' version of coding and writing - google).
Take Anthropic for an example. Anthropic has successfully destroyed customer trust, at least for me. DHH in a recent interview mentioned that Claude refused to translate an article about immigration. Not summarize. Not editorialize. Translate! I think this reveals an unacceptable level of paternalism: Anthropic fundamentally believes that it possesses a moral authority superior to the people actually paying for the API. If such basic and mechanical translation is already too sensitive to touch, the goalposts have moved from safety into outright censorship. What prevents them from quietly deciding tomorrow that your proprietary business logic, financial data, or legal documents cross their invisible moral line?
Let alone how Anthropic treats Cursor and Figma - not that they are wrong as companies are free to compete legally, but nonetheless it shows that companies can't outsource their intelligence to a potential competitor.
But I doubt this a major factor in the trend. I just don't think it's something most corporate users run into. My understanding is these guardrails are negotiable for enterprise customers anyway.
And, not for nothing, but if I owned a human-powered translation company I would've refused to translate it too.
While I agree that Claude can be overly paternalistic at times, how should it respond to a request to translate, say, bomb-making instructions? It's reasonable to me that it might refuse this.
Also, you see zero distinction between hearing opinions on political topics you might find objectionable, and building a bomb to kill people?
Who's going to be the new Bill Gates, with a vision for "a GPU cluster in every home?"
This feels reminiscent of the big push to RAG a few years ago. And, more broadly the skunkworks projects that big companies tout in the press before they end up killing, when the operational overhead becomes too much for their liking.
Ultimately, the narrative is good for the consumer and the enterprise. It’ll mean OpenAI and anthropic will have to keep prices low. But ultimately, in the course of the next 10 years, I don’t see enterprises wanting to do this themselves. It’ll just be simpler (and eventually safer in their eyes) to send traffic to the big labs.
Which makes the Muse 1.3 launch this week particularly interesting, although to get the low cost version you do need to agree to share data with Meta.
You can’t further train the closed models. The open models can be fine tuned for your company. Big companies fine tune models on all the internal systems and documentation, not just through .md files (you’d blow up the context trying it that way) but actual fine tuning of open weights models. A low tier but open weights model actually beats frontier models when you do this for a specific task.
I think the frontier providers need to have a way to isolate instances (bedrock style?) and allow fine tuning to compete. Big companies are absolutely fine tuning models right now and getting better results than even the best frontier models for their use cases.
In my experience as a tech diligence assessor for PE firms for the last 7 years, investors really, really don't like companies being beholded to single entities that they don't control. Anthropic and OpenAI have demonstrated that they are not trustworthy, or predicatable, or finanically safe, or even capable of hitting three fucking nines. Investors know they need companies to be on the AI train, but they really don't like vendor lockin to the big AI companies. Every diligence I get asked "how easily can they change models?"
I think when open models reach 80% or 90% capability (or maybe even less!) a whole lot of companies are going to say "almost as good with way less risk is a better deal".
Just use Fable 5.1/Opus max for the hardest problems, GPT Sol high as your workhorse, and maybe terra for async batch stuff you don't really care about. Gemini 3.8 High also looks pretty good and is quite fast if you're already a GCP shop. You can basically benefit from open models without using them because they force the frontier models to be cheaper.
Coding, maybe.
But for operationalized/repeatable tasks it definitely does.
For example I have a workflow that I was running in April that effectively would cost $30k in token spend for each full run.
However now, with GLM 5.3-flash, we've brought the cost down to $7k-9k with our evals showing we've had no loss in recall, precision etc..
No one I know uses the built in VSCode extensions anymore. It's all TUIs now. You can use Opencode as a TUI now for local.
The race is still on
Besides, in their present rather dire financial state there isn’t much to sue these companies for anyway cash wise. NYTimes is suing on IP grounds.
Adoption of open-source models to my mind is a similar step in that direction. In all cases, the goal is to become untethered from a mercurial vendor.
https://chatjimmy.ai/ blew my mind at how fast etched model weights can be.
For on-device LLMs, there's a point of diminishing returns, meaning you don't need to have the latest frontier model for most operations.
Have you been brought into line? Open source AI also violates copyrights.
This is actual communism, and the fact that Bernie Sanders and every other member of the DSA isn't actively fighting for open source and is often fighting against all AI shows how fake their purported movements are and have always been.
The fact they prioritize other fights more than OSS, and have a rather dim view of AI, is hardly proof that they are fake.
https://jacobin.com/2026/07/ai-nationalization-sanders-liber...
Open source authors have always been protective of their copyright. There are numerous examples when drivers have been copied between BSD/Linux (I forget which direction) which led to huge flame wars.
The whole point of the GPL is that it uses copyright and copyright assignment to the FSF to protect what it calls software freedom.
BSD authors are very upset if the attribution clause isn't observed. And so on.
It is communism to exploit poor open source authors? I have to read Marx again.
Open source licenses are only enforceable because of copyright law. How are you going to enforce GPL3 when you have no legal authority to say what people are allowed to do with your code?
I highly recommend utilizing an open sourced embedding model instead of paying for a closed source one. It's vastly more reasonable to run an open sourced embedding model as a first step. They're much, much smaller and, due to the overhead of network latency, and running it locally has almost the same speed as through an API even on slow computers.
I would even go so far as to say that closed source embedding models have a high risk of data hostage. If a team doesn't have access to the embedding model, the embeddings become useless. A corporation like OpenAI could, say, hike the prices to that model by 1000x and everyone would have to pay up or forfeit any utility of the data.
I envision a future where open source embedding models are shipped with relevant technologies and implemented by currently under-utilized chips like NPU's. A startup developing cheap microprocessors that can run them is an idea I would pay cash for. Or perhaps they will be bundled with security tokens.
While it might be impractical for all corporate teams to run language models, it is very realistic for everyone to operate an open sourced embedding model, at least in their private cloud. Better yet, utilize transfer learning on an open sourced one to train your own, that way the embedding vector is more secure against competitors and trade secrets.
It makes me skeptical that the flagship companies are sustainable. Every company is going to maximize “fuel efficiency” to save time and money.
Then again, maybe the cheaper models have more markup for them, in which case they are probably happy w this arrangement. I’d be curious to know how the money making varies by model.
Edit: I also have to read the methods anyway for scientific accountability/integrity anyways, so I may as well play that role at the outset.
Plus there is something to say about being in the drivers seat, youll have a much better idea of how it works instead of needing to talk to claude and hope its correct. Since most LLMs also not very good at ideas even in my experience with better models its better to think for 10mins, youll get a much high quality result