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#humanoid#memory#need#great#robot#germany#train#long#etc#robots

Discussion (30 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews

whatever1about 1 hour ago
I wonder how Germany missed the semi manufacturing train? They had literally everything: universities, manufacturing culture, expertise and supporting supply chains, cash.

I forgot, they also had ASML, freaking next door!

cherryteastain32 minutes ago
They had a large memory manufacturer, Infineon, who spun out their memory division as Qimonda which then went bankrupt [1]. They were the 2nd largest in the world at one time apparently. Looking back, it's easy to say the German govt should have thrown them a billion or two to keep them afloat. However, state intervention was very unpopular at the time in economic circles, and there was much furor over bailouts following the 2008 crisis.

Japan has an even sadder story. They were the DRAM top dog for a very long time. South Korea entirely ate their lunch.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qimonda

paulmist30 minutes ago
Even better, Qimonda was ultimately bought (alongside all their patents) by SMIC [1] who is now the Chinese memory player. For 30 million.

[1] https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/chinas-cxmt-is-set-to-...

stogot11 minutes ago
Wow, 7000 patents and all their IP and documentation
GuB-4213 minutes ago
> I wonder how Germany missed the semi manufacturing train?

My best guess is that the connecting train was operated by the Deutsche Bahn

repler3 minutes ago
Siemens?
gruntled-worker25 minutes ago
Chip fab locations have traditionally had more political than economic importance. Matrix multiplication chips and RAM have been the recent exception, while TSMC has long been the geopolitical exception. ASML's location only matters to the extent that it gets ordered not to sell to someone.
woadwarrior0116 minutes ago
The AMD spinoff GlobalFoundries has a fab in Dresden.
fennecbutt19 minutes ago
Memory has only really recently become lucrative. Germany still has heavy machinery, trains, drilling machines etc all of which will be needed for a long time regardless of whether the "bubble pops" or not.
tw0417 minutes ago
Most of those now need memory to function. At some point it becomes a national security issue.
fennecbutt12 minutes ago
That's not really a gotcha, because my train doesn't need a TB of dram.
paulmist31 minutes ago
IIRC Taiwan took a page out of Singapore's playbook and went all in on electrical engineering and adjecent fields. It was very much a long-term strategy. Germany probably didn't feel nearly as much pressure, and was already very strong in all industry.
GuB-4230 minutes ago
The title sounds to me like: I am going to spend $1000 in groceries and dance lessons. That is, two very different things lumped together.

Memory chips are like groceries, essential commodity parts, a no-nonsense investment. Humanoid robots are like dance lessons, it is cool, it is sexy, and it may pay off in the future, but the value is much less certain.

paulmistabout 1 hour ago
> “Semiconductors, physical AI, and AI data centers are the triple axis for a great leap forward.”

Not the best wording... I wonder how serious this announcement is.

summerlight43 minutes ago
Looks like a lazy translation; the president used a word "대도약" while the Chinese campaign that you're referring is translated into "대약진운동".
winstonleeabout 1 hour ago
It's from the president's speech. Too lazy to look up the actual text but I guess he meant "pillars", a common metaphor in East Asia. In English axis and pillar are distinct but in East Asia the line is blurry.

For example, the Japanese word 軸 (jiku) is used to mean the "axis" of a graph, but it is also used in business to mean the "core pillar/backbone" of a strategy (e.g., 経営の軸 keiei no jiku, literally "the axis of management," but conceptually "the pillar of management").

jazzyjacksonabout 1 hour ago
The speech was delivered in Korean so this is a choice by a translator. I don’t speak Korean but I asked an LLM and it says …

the phrase used is "대도약" (daedoyak), which literally means "great leap forward" or "great jump forward." This is NOT "대약진" (daeyakjin), which would be the direct translation of China's "Great Leap Forward" (大跃进).

yalogin17 minutes ago
Why is the whole world jumping on to humanoid robots? What am I not seeing that requires this level of investment in it?
kart234 minutes ago
automating repetitive physical work doesn’t appeal to you?
stogot8 minutes ago
They can sell “employees” who don’t require salaries, onboarding, healthcare, 401k, benefits, etc and then leave after two years of being lazy and try to sue you. (This is how it will be marketed)
SecretDreams7 minutes ago
Sex bots and disposable police. This is basically the future in every dystopian SciFi these politicians and oligarchs grew up watching. This is just living out fantasy.
dolebirchwood34 minutes ago
Why humanoid? Surely there must be a superior physical form factor than one mimicking human anatomy. Is it just supposed to be more psychologically acceptable?
redorb29 minutes ago
There are just a few reasons - humanoid make sense, mostly for multi purpose tasks - where if you want a robot to be multi-job, do almost everything a human can do at work --

If you want a weld you need a 1 arm robot, if a robot to weld, then stack, then push parts on a cart across the factory - then sweep up, then etc.. etc.. perhaps a humanoid is alright.

There will definitely be too many people comfortable with ownership / master relationship with a humanoid robot that will do their bidding.

Retric29 minutes ago
Human spaces are built for humans. Outdoors cars and quad coppers are a great form but constrained by stars, doors, and low ceiling makes them a poor fit.

Alternatively a 2 foot tall or a 20 foot tall humanoid robots aren’t particularly useful. But a good enough 5-6 foot tall humanoid robot can be swapped into an assembly line wherever a human is currently working without redesigning that workspace.

password5432125 minutes ago
A lot of training data being collected is coming from people. You have companies paying people to do chores while recording themselves.
goretghh25 minutes ago
Because it's what Elon and China say that matters. There are exceptions but Korea is not the land of creativity. At all.
SecretDreams8 minutes ago
It's crazy how much 1at could improve QOL for their citizens and also improve and diversify their economy. Alas, they're just going to subsidize ram prices for everyone when this current cycles goes from boom to bust.
aussieguy123410 minutes ago
South Korea is facing a serious demographic crisis, in the not too distant future it'll be a country of mostly elderly folk. I'd be interested to know if this investment has anything to do with this, since robots may be needed in the absence of young able bodied folk.

More info: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufmu1WD2TSk

yieldcrvabout 1 hour ago
Better spend it now, people won’t need greater than 1.5tr parameter models

and battery powered consumer devices will be able to run those and lower sufficiently capable models by then, distributing the need for compute away from capital projects

the glut will be enormous

yes, immortalize this phrase just like the 640kb ram phrase, I’ll stand by it

busymom033 minutes ago
> 1.5tr parameter models

Curious, what's this based off of?