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Discussion Sentiment

36% Positive

Analyzed from 1307 words in the discussion.

Trending Topics

#anthropic#public#risk#going#opinion#ipo#fact#story#money#market

Discussion (63 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews

1123581321about 4 hours ago
This is a non-story; for those who haven’t read them, prospectuses include every potential risk under the sun. There will be risks that never make the news alongside the exciting backlash.
dofmabout 3 hours ago
“Everyone hates us and the very fundamentals of what we are promising, will fight to prevent us establishing infrastructure, may pass laws to limit our activities in their states, and will extend that hatred to our major investors, potentially materially damaging their businesses” is not a common thing in an IPO prospectus, I imagine, for quite obvious reasons.

But that is the gist of the situation is it not? If it’s an honest statement, it is going to say something like this.

Which prospectus got close to anything like this? People hate SpaceX products less.

jryle70about 3 hours ago
"Everyone hates us but they can't have enough of us. Our revenue can't stop rising"

Anthropic's credit line is now $10B - [0], and the IPO is expected to beat or match SpaceX - [1]

[0] https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/anthropic-p...

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-20/anthropic...

nozzlegearabout 2 hours ago
This doesn't really refute what they said. The fact that they make a lot of money doesn't mean the public doesn't hate them or that they won't find themselves facing anti-AI backlash in the near or far future.
dofmabout 3 hours ago
Not what we are discussing.
jmalickiabout 3 hours ago
Uber and Airbnb both had similar risks in their S1s, for obvious reasons.
dofmabout 3 hours ago
I was thinking maybe Uber but I was not sure it could have been that bad. They would have had states pushing back but against a very popular product with users.

But Airbnb, good point: they would have talked about the risks of states curtailing their businesses.

It’s still a very unusual level of hatred, I would say.

cavem0nkeyabout 3 hours ago
And both have been damaging to society. And are getting fined and chased out of certain countries.

Why would you throw investment in this unless you’re just leveraging the growth in the time it takes for regulatory issues to appear? Which is terribly unethical.

Wall to wall bastards. I’d rather die poor than contribute to the further decline of society.

bragrabout 3 hours ago
I'm sure you can find similar stuff in the prospectuses of many controversial companies spanning oil, cigarettes, alcohol, cannabis, adult entertainment, guns, gambling, defense, etc... Anything someone is trying hard to ban.
newsomix9xlabout 3 hours ago
Why is AI in the category of oil, cigs, and beer? Its software ....
montaggabout 3 hours ago
The non-story part is that they would include this risk even if it were 5 people.
sumenoabout 3 hours ago
I could easily find 5 people who hate SpaceX and yet that wasn’t mentioned as a risk

I think you’re going to have to provide evidence that this is a commonly documented risk

Betelbuddyabout 3 hours ago
One risk they should include is: Our vision is working on a product and business model, that if we succeed, will make our business model and product obsolete.
1123581321about 3 hours ago
I expect this will effectively be stated, that their success will depend on developing a succession of products and evolving the company in response to the market climate.
JacobAsmuthabout 3 hours ago
Not a risk.
Betelbuddyabout 3 hours ago
Well there is a story, and the story is we are going to have an Anthropic IPO? Believe it when I see it...
mihaelmabout 3 hours ago
We've known Anthropic has filed for an IPO since early June.
danilocesarabout 3 hours ago
Interesting how that whole conversation about "AGI tomorrow" completely disappeared and it's all about making money now.

I'm a fan of claude and I have been using their top tier plans because it's so damn cheap comparing to my real usage. They will have to stop subsidizing this at some point, and people (include me) will flee. What they are gonna do?

Interesting times we live in.

VCFundedGenYerabout 3 hours ago
Sam Altman being like "AGI in <6 months/8 months/2023/2024/2025/2026>" is just sad to listen to now. They don't have it, and never will.
joebuckwilliamsabout 3 hours ago
The bigger risk is going to be the fundamental inability to meet their buildout commitments. There’s not enough money in the world.
jiaosdjfabout 2 hours ago
The risk is that we rise up and violently lynch the elites when they try to implement autonomous AI mass surveillance backed by an army of robots to quell the growing unrest of unemployed "useless eaters".

It's a big risk and the only ways to mitigate it are either:

a) build the dystopian system quickly and violently killing all dissenters on sight

b) build a utopian system where robots build our houses, grow our food and serve us 24/7

Just a hunch they'll try option A.

vrganjabout 2 hours ago
Socialism or Barbarism! - Rosa Luxemburg
bigtexabout 2 hours ago
I would think profitability would be the biggest risk factor
iLoveOncallabout 3 hours ago
I said it [1][2] when OpenAI was supposed to go public "next week" and I'll say it again today: neither Antropic nor OpenAI are going public in the coming few years.

The moment they go public is the moment the music stops and everyone who still has their head in the sand realizes that they now can't deny there's no money to make in selling AI models, only money to lose.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48211272

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48358945

nswizzle31about 3 hours ago
Anthropic is absolutely going public now that Leopold got taken for a ride and the market is back at its very tip top. There is no other option at this point. It is imminent.

What you get wrong is who the music stops for. It stops for us (retail). They dump their bags and consolidate into a more manageable business in the long run. S&P drops 10% and life moves on in a few years.

I think you’re right about OpenAI though. They got outplayed at every step and wont go public.

mimischiabout 3 hours ago
Care to explain how this relates to Leopold? I know they hold some stake in Anthropic, but I’m not proficient enough in the topic to jump to the conclusion you’re alluding to.
nswizzle31about 3 hours ago
Sure, a month ago the market was roaring and Anthropic first floated going public. Then suddenly all AI-related stocks drop 30%+ over a week and people claimed the jig was up. No chance for Anthropic IPO.

Turns out it was mainly just caused by one hedge fund (Citadel) targeting another hedge fund (Leopold). He got liquidated and Citadel picked up his portfolio for pennies. Market subsequently soared to even higher highs in the last few weeks and, poof, Anthropic is going public again.

That’s the narrative anyways - the big drop was just Leopold getting liquidated and not a larger market downturn.

danilocesarabout 3 hours ago
++

I don't know if they will never go public,but their business is clearly not profitable as it is today.

I'm a heavy user but the moment they stop subsidizing I will pick something else because I know how damn expensive it actually is (my usage is ~4k usd/month, but paying 200 in their max plan).

I guess lot of people will do the same.

4fffaaabout 3 hours ago
The funny thing is the govt would prob prefer all the resources were concentrated (e.g. across MSFT and Alphabet) rather than diversified across many firms in a head to head fight vs China.

So therefore theres no argument to keep anthropic and OAI afloat if they cannot do so on their own.

downrightmikeabout 2 hours ago
It all implodes once they can't afford to lock up all the RAM and SSD, and/or when the reduced resources environment(private/China) models get good enough to negate frontier lead / become equivalent (almost there)
dofmabout 3 hours ago
I rather think OpenAI will never get there.

I think the AI industry desperately needs one of the two to get to IPO for its own sense of identity, though; the morale boost and the presumption of validation are crucial at this point.

I think it’s possible that the remaining power of the delusion gets Anthropic to IPO.

4fffaaabout 3 hours ago
Lol nobody's buying the BS.

It is all about greater fool theory now. The substance OAI and Anthropic had is gone.

jqpabc123about 4 hours ago
negative sentiment towards AI and data centers will be listed as a risk factor

The fact that the technology can "hallucinate" and is unreliable is not just a "sentiment" --- it is a well established fact. And it is more than a risk, it is virtually guaranteed to happen if you use it repeatedly.

Calling it "sentiment" is like an "alternative fact".

cm2187about 3 hours ago
Not sure what you are talking about. The negative sentiment isn't about hallucinations, it is about job replacement and high electricity cost.
watwutabout 3 hours ago
And water. And oligarchs relations to Trump administration. And it way AI was forced everywhere. And how they get massive investments while rest of economu suffers. And doomtrolling. And how unappealing their culty vision of the world is. And plan to create monopoly. And how they claim to be creating doom machine.

Like ... basically everyone can pick their reason to hate.

azan_about 3 hours ago
Isn’t data center water usage actually non-story?
uejfiweunabout 4 hours ago
...what? I don't think they're talking about hallucinations here, they're talking about public opinion.
jqpabc123about 3 hours ago
Is it just an "opinion" if it is based on proven facts?
LPisGoodabout 3 hours ago
Yes. Let’s say I saw a person kill someone. That’s a fact, but my perception of them would be low; that is an opinion.

I think it’s really swell how the last 10 years have made it so the basic difference between fact and opinion is not totally obvious.

bluefirebrandabout 3 hours ago
"Public Opinion" -

Public opinion, or popular opinion, is the collective opinion on a specific topic or voting intention relevant to society. It is the people's views on matters affecting them (From Wikipedia)

It has nothing to do with fact. It broadly represents peoples views, factual or otherwise.

paul7986about 3 hours ago
Tell that to graphic designers as do you think that's a career a student going into college should pursue? Same with web design and web development (AI companies now are trying / working on shifting us away to less screens/more voice).... like would you tell a freshman in college to pursue those degrees vs. medical stuff and or skip college altogether, rather pick up tools to help build those data centers?
simianwordsabout 3 hours ago
its a bit sad that the public can't grasp tools that have high variance but still end up being useful. lots of things in real life follow the same pattern yet when it comes to AI..
seattle_springabout 2 hours ago
AI backlash is not because of "high variance"...
simianwords15 minutes ago
i didn't say it was