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Discussion (68 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews
1. Many people intuitively assume that clumping/clustering of events implies non-randomness, and that random processes are smooth and low-variance. The opposite is true [1].
2. A consequence of 1. is that people often over-estimate their understanding of the likelihood of events and the degree to which they are conditional/dependent.
3. There was an intriguing comment on this site a few days ago [2], referencing Daniel Kahneman's work on System 1 and System 2 thinking. From memory it said that reality is a lot less explicable than we tend to think - and that a lot of what we casually think we know about the everyday world is just our brains filling in the gaps using quick and cheap System 1.
As to why people are clutching at science-fictional interpretations: perhaps they're looking for some excitement or novelty? That would be very human.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion
[2] Unfortunately I cant find the comment. I wish I'd favourited it.
https://retractionwatch.com/2017/02/20/placed-much-faith-und...
Edit to add: The critique in the linked blog post refers to weak studies used in one chapter of one general-readership book by Kahneman. I'm not aware of anyone claiming that he is generally unreliable as a scientist.
But that number, 20 disappeared people per day, is gut wrenching. (US murders are at around 40 per day.) Surveillance sucks, but maybe at least it can be leveraged to find patterns when married to NameUs data. On the other hand I can sympathize with someone who just doesn't want to be found.
A disappearance of someone from the above background, vs someone who is say in midwest rural America or near areas where human trafficking crimes occur at a higher rate than normal, matters.
Further, their research/knowledge of sensitive government material also implies they likely have some form of overwatch or at least minimal monitoring for foreign agent threats from our government (or had in the past). Its not uncommon for high ranking military officials to have some form of training in counter surveillance tradecraft for this exact reason.
The odds these events are due to a foreign adversary given the multiple wars and geopolitical tensions are not negligible
From my personal experience, these are also the kinds of people that enjoy challenging and thrill seeking hobbies like mountain climbing, backpacking, etc that put them in a position where thereâs some not insignificant chance of death in a remote location.
[0]: I don't like the word protest because words are meaningless. A mass gathering of people is a demonstration of force because manpower means firepower and firepower means simple power as all real world power comes from violence.
I've thought the same thing they expressed - perfect surveillance, if put into practice with omnipresent cameras tied to AI analysis for infinite government agents tracking each of us, would not be used to solve all crime but would be used to pre-emptively end any eventual needed revolution or mass uprising against the state.
Just because we can do something doesn't mean we should.
No.
Are we going to learn that physics no longer exists?
FBI looks into dead or missing scientists tied to NASA, Blue Origin, SpaceX (228 points, 170 comments)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47858246
Even in the article, it lumps everything together as âin recent years,â but over the span of several years, people across a large country can die for all sorts of unrelated reasons. Thatâs just how basic mortality statistics work.
Also, the category âscientistsâ is far too broad. Unless weâre talking about the same organization, the same field of research, and the same timeframe, itâs hard to justify treating these cases as connected. The scope is too wide and the professions too varied. It feels like people are constructing conspiracy theories out of weak patterns because those narratives are more stimulating.
If we applied the same logic, we could take annual industrial accident deaths in the U.S. and claim theyâre part of some coordinated assassination plan by capitalists. That obviously doesnât make sense. (Although, to be fair, one could argue that industrial accidents reflect structural issues tied to capital, but thatâs a different kind of argument entirely.)
What Iâm really trying to say is that this kind of article feels like a product of the internetâs incentive structure â framing loosely related events as something suspicious in order to attract clicks and attention.
Here are the individuals mentioned:
* Michael David Hicks (JPL, comets/asteroids research) * Frank Maiwald (space research / JPL) * Monica Reza (aerospace engineer, JPL) * Nuno F.G. Loureiro (MIT, nuclear science and fusion) * Carl Grillmair (Caltech astrophysicist) * William Neil McCasland (Air Force, aerospace research) * Melissa Casias (Los Alamos National Laboratory, administrative role) * Anthony Chavez (Los Alamos, construction foreman)
Iâm not sure what standard is being used to claim a meaningful connection here. The category seems extremely broad.
And the idea that âif you question it, youâre part of the conspiracyâ is pretty convenient reasoning.
Honestly, Iâd love to be part of some shadow organization secretly running the United States from behind the scenes â do you think theyâre accepting applications?
American Thought Control and thought controlled Americans human sacrifice of the innocent to pay for their âPower.â
From the Satanic sacrifices of the 80s/90s, through the public shootings of the 2000s, to the rise of white nationalism and everything that stands for today, the occult shadow governance pervades all, for they have the ultimate Power to travel among and act as God in the minds of the vulnerable and unsuspecting.
It is a mob culture, with hierarchies who can hear every thought and memory in the human mind, not an organized cabal of rich wealthy people using encrypted chat.
And they do these things to control the narrative and prune dissent.
What is the current pattern in other industries?
Does the pattern exist elsewhere in the world?
Also ~10 in a year, modal age of established scientists + collaboration with us gov, the background rate is basically that... Basically a conspiracy theory at that point, and not even a good one.
> The speculation, she says, is "denigrating to their memories".
> Other loved ones reached by the BBC called the speculation "terrible" and "disgusting," compounding families' grief - but chose not to speak on the record because they didn't want to give the stories any more airtime.
this shit is harmful to people.
Typical example: âIn the years since, several others connected to JPL have also died or disappeared: Frank Maiwald, a specialist in space research, died in Los Angeles in 2024 at 61.â
Or stupider: At least 10 people flipped a coin and it ended up on Heads!
The fact that it reached CNN levels of stupid means journalism is part of the overall USA's intentional brain drain.
âAnthony Chavez, 79, worked at Los Alamos National Laboratory until he retired in 2017. He reportedly disappeared on May 8, 2025.â
An disappearance of a retired major general without his personal possessions and someone committing suicide whilst due to testify in court, sure those things warrant an investigation even though those things happen as the result of mundane crime or mental breakdowns as well as conspiracy. But another thing entirely for the "nothing much to see in those Epstein files" FBI to spin the grand narrative that connecting all these dots is a legitimate question because UFOlogists on YouTube.
CNN was one of the biggest pushers of this hoax: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_drone_sight...
Here's a more substantial take on the whole thing that doesn't just blindly repeat everything without question: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/2026/04/missing-scientis... You know, what journalism is actually supposed to be like.
This BBC article https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyw9rpdl4po also has this tidbit:
> "The US Top Secret-cleared aerospace and nuclear workforce is ~700,000 people," science writer, investigator and pseudoscience debunker Mick West wrote on 16 April on his Substack.
> "Ordinary mortality over 22 months predicts ~4,000 deaths, ~70 homicides, and ~180 suicides. The list has 10 ⌠The deaths are real. The families' grief is real. The pattern is not."
> Separately, the Republican-led House Oversight Committee announced Monday it will investigate ...
So, do we not want the news reporting what the government is doing? That's the FBI, DoE, DoD, and the House Oversight Committee putting effort into this.
Like, no, i want this reported, not because there is anything that will come from it, but because we should report one what the government is doing.
Why do you think CNN should NOT report one what the government does?
Epstein is on record âsilencingâ Pons cold fusion research.
Michael Hastingsâ car crashed into a tree without signs of braking.
In his brother's own words, "I really rule out foul play entirely. I might have been suspicious if I hadn't been with him the day before he died. After all, he definitely was investigating and writing about a lot of sensitive subjects. But based on being with him and talking to people who were worried about him in the weeks leading up to his death, and being around him when he had had similar problems when he was younger, I was pretty much convinced that he wasn't in danger from any outside agency."
It's an exceptionally dumb conspiracy theory among many other exceptionally dumb ones.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michael-hastings-interview_b_...
Remember those navy seals who were murdered by schizophrenic brothers of girlfriends?
Look into all the research of âvoices in our heads.â And Iâm sure youâre impressed by how well âgang stalkingâ and âtargeted personsâ is handled. Crazy crackpot schizophrenic conspiracy theories. And signs of a truly diabolical secret war upon us all.
I know, take meds and get help. Thatâs the byline of those who consider themselves sane.
(there's more detail at the link, obvs.)
[0] https://www.stevennovella.com/neurologicablog/whats-with-the...
> 25 deaths per million people per day
That's not the same age range as actively practicing researchers.
Yes, perhaps by reading the link.
"I should point out I am using numbers for the general population, which may not match the rate for scientists. [...] I also looked at CDC data â about 800,000 people in the US between 25 and 65 die each year [...] About 6% of the population work in the science field, which would be 192,000, or half that if you use a narrow definition of 3%, so close to the 73,000 figure I calculated the other way."
He also looks at how that compares with the individual institutions.
But yes, "show some rigor" indeed!