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#real#estate#korea#leveraged#housing#gambling#worth#more#stocks#wealth

Discussion (33 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews

x313•about 1 hour ago
For those who don't know what's going on in Korea, KOSPI is up 3x in the last year and a large amount of HBM employees have made huge amounts of bonus pay. This has led to an insane FOMO frenzy in a society that's already very competitive.

Add to that, stock gains in Korea are often used to finance housing purchases (or real estate investment) so many retail investors are scared of being "locked out" of housing (which is a requisite status symbol for dating or marriage) if they're not making the same capital gains others are.

Currently Korean social media is full of stories of leveraged day traders who've gotten rich the past year, HBM employees who've made bonuses worth decades of salary (e.g. memes of Samsung employees in luxury cars), etc. Lots of comments along the lines of "everyone is getting rich except me". It's all reminiscent of the crypto frenzy in the US a few years ago but way more intense and concentrated.

stickfigure•3 minutes ago
> housing (which is a requisite status symbol for dating or marriage

I get that culture is hard to change, but it still seems easier than changing the economics. There are men and women out there who presumably are interested in partnering up; at some point you'd think biology will take over irrespective of which achievements have been unlocked. What's stopping them?

aunty_helen•39 minutes ago
I wish we had a word for this, where everyone’s getting rich, there’s a run on stocks, but prices of assets are all going up. Some people are missing out completely whereas a select few hoard wealth in other forms. And of course the government starting to notice and trying to intervene.
uncivilized•35 minutes ago
Irrational Exuberance
rcbdev•27 minutes ago
Exoptable Money.
anovikov•38 minutes ago
With housing their being so cheap, what the hell is the problem anyway? It's impossible to have expensive real estate in a country that's dying out fast.
Barrin92•33 minutes ago
>It's impossible to have expensive real estate

no it's very possible because in an aging country people relocate to a handful of cities. 50% of South Korea's population now lives in the Seoul metropolitan area. The real estate that's getting cheaper is the one decaying in the countryside.

It's like saying Russia can't have expensive real estate because the country is big, what matters is where people are actually moving.

SturgeonsLaw•6 minutes ago
Cities in Australia consistently rank in the top 5 most expensive real estate indices and we ain't short of space here, it's just not many people are interested in living in a dusty Outback desert.

And for many, if the property is not within 10km of the Sydney or Melbourne city centre, it might as well be in the dusty Outback desert.

vasco•40 minutes ago
Housing usually is needed for living. Not a status symbol for dating. I see how it can help the same way as not starving to death will also help with dating, but the framing is odd.
x313•36 minutes ago
Referring to ownership, not renting
vasco•16 minutes ago
Maybe rent the wife also, then, if ownership doesn't matter to you.
raziel2701•about 2 hours ago
The story we were telling young people that if they apply themselves, go to school and get a job they'll be able to afford family, house, vacations is moving further and further away for more and more people.

The turn towards financial nihilism will continue.

kelseyfrog•24 minutes ago
We live in a capitalist society, not a labor-oriented society. The way to make big money is through capital - ie: purchasing property and then selling it for (hopefully) profit.

Laboring in a capitalist economy is a loser's strategy because your capital is you body's ability to produce value and that has a maximum physical limit. Why participate in an economy using a strategy that has a natural upper bound? It makes no sense. You're not even playing the game poorly - you're not playing the game at all.

Terr_•43 minutes ago
While "financial nihilism" is part of it, I think we should be putting even more attention towards the forces that are trying to deliberately encourage it for profit.

Kind of like pathological gambling: Sure, some people are susceptible, but there's also an entire industry around finding them and making them succumb.

trvz•about 2 hours ago
Yeah, but it’s also plain greed, and it’d be hard to tell the ratio.
purpleflame1257•about 2 hours ago
The threshold for greed is higher than the median net worth of an American. We tell people they need "generational" wealth to a make it in this country because housing, education, and healthcare are all so expensive
mkotlikov•about 1 hour ago
The problem isn't leveraged funds, it's margin on leveraged funds.

Leveraged funds are the safest way for the average investor to get access to leverage because unlike margin there is no risk of margin calls, and your money generally won't go to zero unlike options which are vastly more complicated and can expire.

The reality is that using leveraged funds (or any leverage) is a completely rational move because the average person will never retire wealthy unless they're already making a tech salary or similar.

Investing has always been gambling, even Warren Buffet made his biggest early wins on all-in bets.

dannyw•32 minutes ago
Leveraged funds can be an excellent tool for portfolio construction, for example, products like 100% stocks + 100% bonds (so -100% cash; internally borrowed in the ETF), e.g. RSSB.

And just because it's available doesn't mean it should be your only ETF/ETP. Not a recommendation or advice, but something like 50% TQQQ, and 50% risk-off asset (gold, bonds, whatever); rebalanced regularly isn't crazy, and might even have alpha.

bananamogul•about 2 hours ago
"Smart men go broke three ways: liquor, ladies, and leverage." -- Charlie Munger

(Which is not to imply that these are smart men).

scotty79•17 minutes ago
Some time ago it occurred to me that you can't just spend extreme amounts of money. You can only lose it by gambling. In a casino, on investment or on business, it doesn't matter.
verteu•9 minutes ago
Indeed, pg has an essay about it: https://paulgraham.com/selfindulgence.html
chanux•about 2 hours ago
For a second, it appeared some found out.

https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/south-korean-retail-inve...

But it seems there's still a lot in their FA phase in the FAFO cycle.

ungreased0675•about 3 hours ago
It’s just gambling, not investing.
appplication•about 1 hour ago
It may be true but if you have nothing else going for you I can see why some folks would throw their leveraged hat in the ring.
mapping365•about 3 hours ago
Not the first time, not the last either. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/creditcards/themes/... https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap46k.pdf South Korean gamblers are the index species of any global credit bubble.
FabHK•about 1 hour ago
The headline is brilliant.
brcmthrowaway•about 3 hours ago
Are other countries like the West where 'markets' (equities, derivatives, prediction) have a wide ranging pervasive effect on culture?
dcrazy•about 2 hours ago
Around the Evergrande collapse there were stories about Chinese retail investors who had pushed money into their domestic real estate industry’s stocks.

Also you might painting too wide a brush with “the West”. I wouldn’t assume that Americans and, say, Austrians have similar exposure to public markets.

adventured•about 2 hours ago
US household assets are fairly well distributed between real-estate and equity markets. China for example previously had ~70% of its household wealth tied up in real-estate, which has suffered enormous declines over the past four or five years.

That said, there's no question that US households have grown fat on the massive expansion of the tech giants. A one trillion $ market cap was shocking not long ago, now you've got Apple and Nvidia at $4-$5 trillion, each about as valuable as China's top 25-30 stocks combined. The US wealth base is highly exposed to a PE multiple compression event, which is likely whenever the bubbly valuations centered around the AI boom reduce.

Also to put a reference figure on it, China's top 500 stocks are roughly worth $11.5 trillion. Nvidia + Apple are worth a combined ~$9.6 trillion.

jiggawatts•about 1 hour ago
Both NVIDIA and Apple derive much of their wealth from off-shored manufacturing to… drumroll… China! (PRC+ROC)

If China decides to take over Taiwan and nationalises TMSC, redirecting their top tier silicon to 100% Chinese companies then what are the American firms worth?

hiddencost•about 2 hours ago
Auatralians are a great case study. Once you control for pensions and similar indirect exposure, Australians have very high stock market exposure.
WorkerBee28474•about 2 hours ago
The Indian derivatives market is huge. Lots of people gambling there.
FabHK•about 1 hour ago
Indeed. It's so much bigger (in notional terms) than the underlying stock market that you can manipulate it by making large bets in the derivatives market, then move the underlying cash markets with much smaller bets, and collect profit.

That is what Jane Street (IIRC) was accused of. Some of its traders then went to another hedge fund and did the same trick there, reducing Jane Street's profit, and ended up being sued by Jane Street. (BTW, Jane Street claims it was not manipulation, but basis trade arbitrage.)

Of course, 9 out of 10 gambler end up in the red.

xyzzy9563•28 minutes ago
Do you consider South Korea the "West"?
vkou•about 1 hour ago
Korea. A lot of people have been gambling on margin.
djchung•about 2 hours ago
Especially in Korea, I know there's a sense of despair in the young adult population on their future. How will they afford to get married, have kids, have a house? Leads to chasing financial outcomes that are uncertain - crypto boom in Korea years back is an example