Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

glaslong•about 2 hours ago

You know, I didn't expect the Insider Trading Casinos to be quite so brazenly evil. I really thought they'd have wanted to keep a lower profile, and not appear so urgently in need of being regulated or sued out of existence. They even had the template of "Sports Betting" to work from.

DANmode•7 minutes ago

They were already illegal! Why be careful, they know they’ve got the social trend and the regulatory bodies on their sides.

jeffreyames•about 2 hours ago

It seems like a case where betting can actually save lives and steer people towards the best solutions. They are worried that workers will tamper with results to make trails fail for a quick buck. If that’s possible they need better observation practices and for these workers to go to jail. But I doubt anyone offended by this betting believes these perverse incentives. Deep down what they are offended by is the unfortunate fact that drugs do fail. But the solution is to allocate resources thoughtfully and fairly to the best candidates, and I’m not seeing how betting interferes with that

idiotsecant•about 2 hours ago

This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?

andai•5 minutes ago

> Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day,

What is this referring to?

kwikiel•about 2 hours ago

Usually the reverse problem is happening - company does pump its stock based on potentially having their drug accepted but it’s usually the case that it will be rejected - but you don’t k ow that for sure for many years - prediction market may help here

anotherhue•about 1 hour ago

To be fair buying securities or derivatives ahead of a pharma results announcement is pretty common already.

Not to excuse these guys for all their other awfulness of course.

Ekaros•about 2 hours ago

How is such bets any different than options trading? If one is reasonable I don't see why the other would be that much different.

watwut•about 1 hour ago

Options trading is particularly bad example, because the buyer can choose whether they exercise it or not. You can just let the option expire.

But yes, there is portion of "investing" that is actually gambling. That is what Enron did and it threw down the economy. Those gamblers usually loose and we have quite a lot of regulations trying to restrict the impact of that gambling.

And yes, the usual suspect hate those regulations.

idiotsecant•about 2 hours ago

If we bet on where fires will occur and I have empty pockets and a book of matches that's a little different than options trading.

As with most terrible behaviors when a few people do it the results to society aren't so bad. When it gains potential for mass application of the same behavior it becomes a crisis.

DANmode•4 minutes ago

Unfortunately your example gets a little foggier once you consider options and futures during a period like the one the US is currently in with Iran.

Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

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