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#openai#problem#model#https#data#more#problems#training#models#proof

Discussion (1095 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews

arctic-true1 day ago
Buried under the drama is the fact that OpenAI is claiming that an internal model they’ve been training for less than two weeks is more than twice as capable in mathematics as Astra, which was only made public a week ago. Even if this improvement is limited to mathematics, that is an astounding feat.
chilmers1 day ago
The implication from their last couple of published articles[1][2] is that they think they’ve achieved “recursive self improvement”.

[1] https://openai.com/index/research-acceleration-view-inside-o... [2] https://openai.com/index/an-alien-mind/

10xDev1 day ago
Compute will always be the bottleneck even if this were true.
monster_truck1 day ago
Based on the leaps in local inference speed in the past month, which have been absurd, I'm p confident we're going to whiplash from compute constrained to storage constrained.

Bit apples to oranges, but it reminds me of all the fiber we installed in the late 90s, certain that per-strand capacity increases were years or decades out, only to get massively rugged

Fordec1 day ago
If humans can figure out to optimize to circumvent bottlenecks, I have no doubt each new bottleneck will also get routed around, just now automated.
Miner49er1 day ago
Eventually recursive self-improvement includes reducing bottlenecks.
magicalist1 day ago
> Buried under the drama is the fact that OpenAI is claiming that an internal model they’ve been training for less than two weeks is more than twice as capable in mathematics as Astra.

Is this buried under the drama or are the major OpenAI twitter accounts from the people involved in the drama desperately attempting to make this the story after everything else obviously got away from them?

ameliaquining1 day ago
I don't know what anyone's been saying on Twitter and I don't care. If it's really true that there's a model out there that's that capable two weeks after the start of training, then that's objectively a much bigger deal than a priority dispute, even if the latter involves juicy allegations of espionage and skulduggery.
20k1 day ago
It isn't a priority dispute, the more concerning allegation is that OpenAI may be training their models on prompts that mathematicians were using to solve this problem, and then surprise surprise OpenAI were able to replicate that work in their latest model

What we're really looking at is seemingly a massive plagiarism scandal, which especially brings a lot of the past results into question

If OpenAI is training models on researchers' prompts, and then threatening them into staying quiet about it, who knows if anything that's been announced is genuine - or just theft?

Edit:

OpenAI have admitted they were training on prompts at the time they made their breakthrough

https://mastodon.social/@tristanbuckmaster/11723647135247030...

pama1 day ago
Not only that, but it used 10k agents coherently over 88 hours to come up with the proof. This is a significant advance.
mzhaase1 day ago
The singularity happening under trump? We could have had star trek, instead we're getting the combine.
monster_truck1 day ago
pick up that can
dboreham1 day ago
That said, perhaps it will take over the world government and decree that all corrupt officials shall be imprisoned and all weapons of mass destruction shall be destroyed.
karmakurtisaani1 day ago
And then it will be shut down, proper guard rails put in place, and the new version will accelerate the cleptocracy.
dakolli1 day ago
You think a model with an effective memory of 200-500k words, that can be unplugged, is going to "run the world" You people gotta put down the sci-fi
Bluestein1 day ago
"I love Singularities. I am the best at Singularities. Everybody knows it ..."
naveen991 day ago
Astra was trained more than two weeks ago.
sashank_15091 day ago
Astra was in use by OpenAI employees for more than 3 months internally from rumors I heard
credit_guy1 day ago
The internal model they mention is different from Astra.
Aboutplants1 day ago
I’m of zero knowledge on model training, but how is a model accessible while performing training at the same time, especially so early in its run? I’m obviously thinking a little too narrowly in terms of how it actually works
stingrae1 day ago
the model is a set of weights, you can take a snapshot and test it. Reinforcement learning itself is largely testing and tuning.
curt151 day ago
They're also counting on more casual observers to extrapolate optimistically from successes in high profile math theorems to the company's economic value.
blake__dev1 day ago
Yeah I'm surprised they posted a chart, you would think they would keep specifics like that hidden until they're closer to launch
cool_dude851 day ago
The chart is as non-specific as could be. It improved in some very vague metric by some amount at different (increasing) levels of training.
blake__dev1 day ago
That's fair, but at least the chart has an axis. :) Since openai just released astra, I was more surprised that they would publicly show any gap to their (presumably SOTA) internal model.
bananaflag1 day ago
Yeah it's Bel
vatsachak1 day ago
Brain has loops and parallel connections.

Loops and parallel connections make transformer go brrr

refulgentis1 day ago
Carefully worded; it's extremely likely to be the same large frontier model that started training again on August 28th as well, as they revealed in some of the RL message board follow-up - for several reasons, most importantly, if we assume it was start of training, only a week from start of training to producing any answer would imply several orders of magnitude increase in training speed/decrease in model size.
chinathrow1 day ago
Pre-IPO marketing?
Aboutplants1 day ago
Even if it is, Anthropic better have a few things up their sleeve
jrflo1 day ago
I'm so tired of this "It's just marketing!!" commentary. An AI model just proved one of the top 3 unsolved problems in mathematics, they have a Lean certificate showing it's valid. How much more evidence do you need that these models are actually highly capable?
mrbungie1 day ago
They are highly capable, no doubt about that, but:

1) We don't really know how they arrived to this result except that they had a lead and that they threw millions of compute at the problem. The article is written in a way that makes you believe that it was just an agent loop with little human intervention, but without any evidence.

2) If the threats are to be believed, it is concerning how far they are willing to go to show how capable the model is. One would think their products and credibility would be enough to speak for themselves.

QuesnayJr1 day ago
Of the seven Millenium problems, Navier-Stokes was the one most thought to be in reach.

I'm not sure what the top 3 problems are. You can make a case for the Riemann Hypothesis and P != NP, but I'm not sure what #3 would be. Maybe the Langlands program? (That one is not as precisely stated as the other two.)

andrepd1 day ago
Lmao my friend, the whole "drama" is that there are allegations of plagiarism.
eutropia1 day ago
If pre-ipo marketing pushes them to train a model capable of resolving a millennium problem in mathematics in a weekend, then, to quote XKCD:

  "Mission. Fucking. Acccomplished."

https://xkcd.com/810/
hdivider1 day ago
My take:

1. It shows what even this wave of AI can actually do.

2. I wish it were done by different folks, ideally under some kind of public control like NASA research or the NPR model.

3. Keep in mind: natural science is different. It's not always a matter of computation. Computer science folks often struggle with this -- but this virtual world here does not actually exist. Everything is physical, including information. Any natural science PhD or otherwise knows just how complicated nature actually is -- e.g. mention any research topic and try to encapsulate all the relevant phenomena present there. Pure mathematics is different because we define the problem, rarher than explore nature. We are in my view far away from removing humans in natural science R&D. Advancements in AI however can greatly assist us in all natural sciences, which is already beginning to happen.

ThePhysicist1 day ago
Most experimental physics and other natural sciences are strongly driven by their theoretical siblings, i.e. in particle research nothing gets built without a solid theoretical foundation of what you expect to find (or where you expect existing theories to break down), the same is true in other areas, no one is doing an experiment in quantum physics before they have a solid theoretical understanding of the effects they try to see. I think AI can come up with great experiments. And if epxeriments lead to results that are unexpected AI can help with that as well.

So I'm greatly excited what AI will bring about in physics, more so than in math, because in physics it's clear that our fundamental theories are missing a big piece of the picture, and given how easily AI crunches through Millenium prize problems I think it's possible that AI will come up with a viable grand unified theory uniting quantum mechanics and gravitation, or produce new predictions in other areas. There's enough contradictory or unexplained observational data available to make a ton of progress on the theory side I think. Exciting times ahead!

throwaway1988461 day ago
It will be interesting to see if it can come up with a cheaper to construct graviton detection experiment
geremiiah1 day ago
The problem with physics and chemistry is that you need simulations and those are often in themselves compute hungry. So the iteration loop will be slower.
efavdb1 day ago
>> Keep in mind: natural science is different. It's not always a matter of computation.

Math is like this too. The big problems they've been solving have been identified as interesting only through lots of prior effort.

red75prime1 day ago
"Our work is so much harder than their work that AI now does" is a refrain of the AI story. In technical terms you concern can be stated as "AI needs to be much more sample-efficient to not be bottlenecked by the speed of doing experiments." People don't find out all the relevant phenomena present there by holy spirit, after all.

BTW, there's also a problem of asking interesting questions that AIs aren't yet good at.

No one has found any principled walls of AI development yet. And empirical results are quite telling. So, I guess, those problems will not stand for long.

tantalor1 day ago
National Public Radio?
vatsachak1 day ago
Lol what? Everything is computation.

The natural sciences will soon start breaking too.

I will concede that AI seems likely to not invent a "research program" anytime soon.

It has no taste

mewse-hn1 day ago
"we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models ."

What a landmine sentence to bury in this report, you can't rule out your models were spying on other researchers?

nradov1 day ago
Is it spying? I think this usage is disclosed in their terms of service.
gowld1 day ago
If it happened it's plagiraism. Consent to see data isn't consent to claim priority.
red75prime1 day ago
Establishing plagiarism requires sufficient similarity between works. Training data changing a model’s weights in some direction, and the model then producing a different solution, hardly qualifies.

But, yeah, priority is much more finicky. The Newton/Leibniz drama was quite something.

brainwad1 day ago
I mean... none of these humans have priority. The result is due to the team of LLM agents.
WarmWash1 day ago
Everyone knows that they train on the discounted rate plans data. All the labs are upfront about this too.

If you need privacy, then you are going to have to pay full price for those tokens (API). This has been true since day one. Everyone knows it, I guess though this is the first time that it has become "real".

perching_aix1 day ago
There's literally an opt out toggle even pesky peons like me can peruse, actually.
sinuhe691 day ago
More like helped improve our work (the disproof)
dash21 day ago
If they had agreed to let OpenAI train on their data, it wouldn’t be spying.
vessenes1 day ago
If those researchers did not opt out then training data might go in. I think it’s a courteous acknowledgement; as was reaching out and examining the direction of proofs themselves. At stake here is a particular mathematician dynamic - ego, prize money, and the sense of proprietary ownership that some might feel working on a problem.

All that was just kicked in the teeth by a group with a lot of compute that was like “bro I heard on twitter that Navier stokes could be solved. Let’s try it.” That’s an existential level of engagement that almost no mathematician in history would like.

jimbob451 day ago
What does it matter? They offered concurrent credit to the other team. I thought I saw sole credit elsewhere in the leaked DMs on Reddit too. This is plainly fair.
tiborsaas1 day ago
> We’re sharing a solution to the Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem, one of the Millennium Prize Problems. This proof, produced by an internal OpenAI system, shows that the dynamics of the Navier-Stokes equations for fluid motion can develop a singularity in finite time. We’re sharing both a writeup of the proof and a formalization in Lean.

WOW?

jampekka1 day ago
> WOW

This.

I do dislike the AI oligarchs as much as the next person, but I do find the thread full of complaining a bit depressing still.

If the result holds (and it looks it does), this may be one of the, if not the, biggest things to happen in computing to date. A lot bigger than e.g. Deep Blue beating Kasparov in chess or AlphaGo beating Sedol in Go.

Eridrus1 day ago
Seeing mathematicians such as Terry Tao being unhappy with open problems being solved makes me sort of question the usefulness of any of this pure mathematics. If we're not happy that the problems are being solved, why care about this field at all?
karmakurtisaani1 day ago
Where was Tao unhappy? I thought he was sort of anticipating this.
empath751 day ago
He's not unhappy with it being solved, but the solution is less important than the learning you have to do to arrive at the solution. If they're just chucking compute at it and publishing the answer and hiding the path to get there, it sort of negates the whole point of posing such problems to begin with.
echelon1 day ago
This is going to be dramatic in so many different ways.

- First off, to reiterate, WOW.

- Second of all, when does this end? Are we at the dawn of the singularity now?

- People are saying OpenAI "stole" this from the work of an OpenAI user. If so, that's pretty fucked - how can we trust them?

- Time to think about retiring from any knowledge work or business? This could be winner-take-all where a leading lab can button press any economic function, business process, or scientific discovery. 24 months of lead on Open Source might turn into virtual centuries of lead.

- Do "normies" even know what's happening?

Anybody who thinks the improvements stop here isn't paying attention. It hasn't been showing any signs of slowing down since 2018. And the curve isn't even linear! My god, next year is going to be insane.

tiborsaas1 day ago
2) We are witnessing the intelligence explosion from the first row, wherever this takes us

3) I'm still processing the drama, just found out about it after reading the blog post. If that happened based on private data, that's horrible. If that happened based on public tweets, then it's still abuse of power as OA employees access to compute (launching 10k agents) is quite heavy weight in boxing terms.

But apart from AI and drama now that we have working solution to Navier-Stokes, what improvements can we expect in engineering?

20k1 day ago
Drama aside, this solution would be a counterexample disproving the smoothness postulate, which means that it leads to nothing new unfortunately. We already had working solutions to navier stokes, the only thing we didn't know is if the equations possessed a technical property

Its a bit like solving p = np with a negative result. Its an incredibly difficult problem, but it doesn't lead to anything at all on its own. This is why people are talking about the fact that the solution methodology is much more interesting than the solution - the tools used to crack something like this may lead to solving more useful problems

inkysigma1 day ago
To be quite clear, the solution to the _Navier Stokes problem_ is one in which you get a finite time blow up (i.e. infinite pressure). This is more meant to suggest that Navier Stokes is unphysical in some way which is not necessarily unexpected.

There's unlikely to be any engineering applications since even if the solution can be approximated, you still need to set up the initial conditions but at that point you can also drive pressure in other ways.

cyberax1 day ago
> But apart from AI and drama now that we have working solution to Navier-Stokes, what improvements can we expect in engineering?

Nothing, really. This mirrors other examples of blowups from the classical physics. It's possible to create a system with just gravitating bodies that exhibits a blowup to infinite speeds in a finite time. The root cause is that, in classical physics, the speed of gravity is instant.

In the case of Navier-Stokes, the fluid is incompressible. So technically any force that you apply to it is supposed to instantly affect everything else. This can be exploited to create these blowups. In reality, no fluid is incompressible, and it takes time for any action to affect the material.

It's just that Navier-Stokes equations are so slippery that it's hard to pin their behavior down. They basically just restate the momentum conservation law for a continuous medium.

baq1 day ago
> - First off, to reiterate, WOW.

> - Second of all, when does this end? Are we at the dawn of the singularity now?

normalcy overhang n. /NOR-muhl-see OH-ver-hang/

The uncanny period during the Singularity when superintelligence is already accomplishing feats that seem like magic, yet everyday life still looks mostly the same.

https://x.com/alexwg/status/2096214373001785794

trio84531 day ago
> Do "normies" even know what's happening?

No, there are even many non-normies talking about how it's all marketing or try to give balanced take about AI being sometimes a little useful for certain things (but they can do without it anyway).

stefap21 day ago
This just pushes knowledge work further up the ladder, toward larger and more complex problems. If there are no knowledge workers, who is going to interpret these results, validate them, decide what matters, and put them into practical use? Rather than eliminating knowledge work, advances like this could create entirely new layers of problems to solve and opportunities to pursue, which will create even more jobs and opportunities. This is my optimistic take.
munificent1 day ago
> This just pushes knowledge work further up the ladder, toward larger and more complex problems.

You really think it makes sense for you to be higher on the "solving complex problems ladder" than the machines that solved fucking Navier-Stokes?

I envy your self-confidence.

biophysboy1 day ago
Why is a "normie" better off if he hyperventilates like this? In that scenario, they would be screwed AND anxious. If it really is as transformational as you say, then no amount of preparation or awareness matters. You are infinitesimally more ready then they are. Luckily for all of us, there is more to knowledge work then technical implementation.
root_axis1 day ago
It's incredible to me that every single time there's a new model people scream "singularity" from the rooftops and every time they are wrong.

This is an impressive result, but there is absolutely zero evidence of "the singularity".

tantalor1 day ago
> Are we at the dawn of the singularity now

Singularity doesn't "dawn". That's the whole idea. It happens all at once.

echelon1 day ago
There's an event horizon and we're maybe past it?
armchairhacker1 day ago
Let's wait until AI solves a longstanding practical problem before "dawn of the singularity" (which could be tomorrow, but still).
reducesuffering1 day ago
Practical?! The goalposts will keep moving until morale improves (narrator: it doesn't)
bibimsz1 day ago
feels like moving the goalpost. is the achievement impressive or isn't it?
onidj1 day ago
>- Do "normies" even know what's happening?

Absolutely not. Even to a lot of techy/nerdy people it's still just a chatbot that they sometimes use to help them at work. Even on here people will do whatever they can to downplay.

The lack of fucks given is staggering.

Bluestein1 day ago
Next month is going to be insane. Month ...
raincole1 day ago
> People are saying OpenAI "stole" this from the work of an OpenAI user. If so, that's pretty fucked - how can we trust them?

The said user (Tristan Buckmaster) didn't solve the millennium problem. He didn't really accuse that OpenAI stole his research either. The beef came from the fact OpenAI asked him to remove another mathematician, who works for Anthropic, from the credit.

"People" are just misinformed and keep spreading misinformation.

20k1 day ago
https://mastodon.social/@tristanbuckmaster/11723647135247030...

He very much is accusing them of stealing his work

bananzambaabout 23 hours ago
The accusation is that they stole his approach of solving it. If OpenAI didn't bruteforce it with dozens of agents, he would have solved Navier-Stokes eventually since he evidently had the right approach. So knowing which approach to take makes all the difference, if they didn't know the approach they couldn't have solved it.

It's like he had a treasure map and was about to find the treasure, but they copied his treasure map and scooped him with a faster boat and found the treasure first. But he would have found it if it weren't for them.

naasking1 day ago
> The said user (Tristan Buckmaster) didn't solve the millennium problem. He didn't really accuse that OpenAI stole his research either. The beef came from the fact OpenAI asked him to remove another mathematician, who works for Anthropic, from the credit.

Not quite accurate, Buckmaster was taking an approach that nobody else was, and this new proof uses this same approach just weeks after he saved those results to OpenAI workspaces. He asked OpenAI if they used chat logs for training the new model, and they did not confirm or deny.

Asking to remove his collaborator is also totally over the line though.

Edit: although this OpenAI post is not comforting: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2097375276384567642

Quote: "While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models. "

achierius1 day ago
Have you read the actual statement https://cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/statement.pdf ?

> I should say here why I interpreted their statement the way I did, the in- terpretation I will discuss below. The route to the Clay problem through a smooth force, options c and d in Fefferman’s statement of the problem, is the route Luis and Diego opened and the one Levent and I had quietly chosen to attack. Almost nobody else I know of was working on it. It is not the direction one arrives at in a few days by giving a model the problem statement. When I heard “forced,” it was a bright red flag.

...

> I asked when the first prompt had been sent by them. This question was not answered directly by OpenAI for some time. Eventually it was agreed that it had been sent in the past few days, after information about our work had reached OpenAI. > I asked whether the model had been trained on, or had access to, our sessions in Codex, into which we had been putting all our drafts for the whole of this project. I was told the model did not look up user data. I asked again, about training, and I did not get an answer.

It's not a direct accusation, but it's not far off.

You shouldn't accuse other people of spreading misinformation when you haven't read the actual sources in question, it's possible that they might know more than you.

d_silin1 day ago
...absolutely nothing will change short-term. Long-term, you still have to pay all the bills, but you won't be able to find a job (all taken by AIs).
jakevoytko1 day ago
For full context, here's the HN thread from the other side of the "Concurrent Work" section: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49605915

Unlike the vanilla read of the OpenAI press release, it is much more unfiltered and outlines some particularly aggressive behavior by specific OpenAI employees

closetheloopdev1 day ago
To be fair, the first solved Millennium Prize Problem, the Poincaré conjecture, also had its fair share of drama!
philipwhiuk1 day ago
And even this version contains the line

> While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models .

recitedropper1 day ago
Sad turn of events for our world. After watching the behavior of the most senior OpenAI researchers on twitter, I feel even less confident in them as a team to be shepherding this much capital and compute.

The dark forest awaits..

AlexErrant1 day ago
1. What does the dark forest have to do with this? Because "the most senior OpenAI researchers" are shitposting on social media, we've an answer to the Fermi paradox???

2. The dark forest is fun for scifi stories, but is mathematically bunk anyway https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-dark-forest-hypothesis-is-... https://www.reddit.com/r/IsaacArthur/comments/1l06cnk/cool_w... https://www.projectnash.com/aliens-the-fermi-paradox-and-the...

When doomposting please actually say something substantive. Negative news always gets clicks/updoots; fight that human tendency.

recitedropper1 day ago
I elaborated on my use of "dark forest" in another reply. We're headed for a dark forest--not amongst interstellar civilizations, but in intellectual work.

I agree that we have not solved the Fermi paradox; I disagree that comments highlighting immature behavior from people who wield enormous power in our world are unproductive.

AlexErrant1 day ago
This clarification substantially changes the flavor/nuance of your OP; may I suggest an edit (assuming the locktime hasn't passed)?

Separately, I disagree that intellectual work has ever been free of "dark forest"-style secrecy. Scientists everywhere have worried about being scooped; AI just magnifies that (as all tools have; e.g. Leeuwenhoek lenses).

And thirdly, if you want to make a stronger case for "I feel even less confident in them as a team to be shepherding this much capital and compute", you should give citations and arguments. From what I've seen, there's drama, it's much OpenAI trying to avoid scooping, and Tristan being stuck in a game of telephone, and Levent being incommunicado.

If you have a better analysis, you should say so instead of being vague.

vmasto1 day ago
Indeed, this seems to be the main, albeit hidden, takeaway from all of this.
sheafification1 day ago
I hate the dark forest more than just about any scifi trope but reality just keeps proving it right.
recitedropper1 day ago
I also think the trope is a little overused, but do wonder if there is an interesting analogy for what this will do to research: Massively incentivize keeping results secret, to avoid being scooped by someone willing to throw enormous compute at your partial solution.

So less about hiding civilizations, and more about hiding information. Math is clearly headed in this direction, and I see no reason why the rest of intellectual work shouldn't too.

keedaabout 24 hours ago
It's low-key funny that OpenAI attempted the problem because they thought somebody else had already solved it, but turned it had NOT in fact been solved!

It's like that story about George Dantzig solving open problems as a student because he thought they were simply homework: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Dantzig

It's also unfortunate that such a potentially momentous occasion is overshadowed by so much drama. Which I suppose is expected given the technology and the people involved are so polarizing.

intenex1 day ago
I think this is clear evidence that AI models are now at the far frontier of mathematics innovation and discovery and exceed human limits.

This specific problem having had a $1 million bounty on its head and still remaining unsolved for 26 years after the bounty was placed is pretty clear evidence that many of the world's best human mathematicians would have solved this problem if they could have, and none were able to until LLMs came along.

Hard to claim at this point that LLMs aren't capable of novel STEM creativity and genius to a degree that will soon far surpass that of humans.

If anyone has counterpoints to this I'd love to hear them!

adverbly1 day ago
> will soon far surpass that of humans

To be fair, I think it's still an open question about how far it might surpass human capabilities.

I think it's clear that its speed of development will be significantly faster, but it's technically not proven that the frontier and problems don't themselves become increasingly difficult faster than any acceleration in intelligence past the point of human training, data and existing knowledge.

Should this be the case, we would see a rapid broadening of development, and a slow advance in the frontier in such a way that might surpass the collective capabilities of people, but not by very far.

piker1 day ago
Sure, even a 20% chance at 1 million payday after 5-6 years of fulltime work on a project with zero practical application doesn't touch the, say, 200k/year guaranteed our best mathematicians would have to forgo to devote their intellect to the problem.
intenex1 day ago
Are these mutually exclusive? Why would you have to forego that salary to work on this problem? This is one of the most prestigious and meaningful problems in all of mathematics, which is why it has such a high prize amount attached to it - why would a university not support a mathematician working on such a prestigious and important problem in lieu of something else?
piker1 day ago
Publish or perish? We're talking devotion here -- so no time to do anything (like edit proofs) other than try to solve the problem.

[Edit: my only point here is that the prize is probably not driving human effort to the limit.]

jampekka1 day ago
Thousands of some of the brightest minds have worked on this problem for over a century. The million bucks is not the big deal here.
superxpro121 day ago
i wonder how many tokens it takes to run 10,000 agents? One could argue this is simply a problem of appropriations. I find myself wondering if a corporation could spend $5M on mathmeticians and arrive at the same end result.
gpm1 day ago
Eh... OpenAI spent significantly more than $1 million solving this...
philipwhiuk1 day ago
See I think it’s clear demonstration that OpenAI is ethics-free
closetheloopdev1 day ago
From my reading of the announcement:

- There are at least two versions of a model more powerful than Astra at OpenAI at the moment.

- The less capable version was used to solve the unforced Euler problem (while the one solved by Levent Alpöge and Tristan Buckmaster was forced Euler) with 100 agents.

- The more improved version was used to solve Navier-Stokes, given the results of the unforced Euler problem from their earlier attempt, with 10000 agents.

- OpenAI initially tried a shotgun approach against the 6 Millennium Prize Problems until it emerged that Navier-Stokes was the most likely to succeed.

So the timeline was:

Shotgunning 6 open Millennium Prize Problems -> solved unforced Euler problem with 100 agents -> concentrating on Navier-Stokes with 10000 agents -> solution.

If so, that is fantastic development and a huge success (despite all the drama surrounding it)! Congratulations!

piker1 day ago
"... The point remains that there is a substantial opportunity cost in converting a historically productive and motivating problem (such as Navier-Stokes regularity) into a mere viral social media post advertising some benchmark progress, rather than actually advancing the field and developing the next generation of both problems to ask, and people to work on them."

https://mathstodon.xyz/@tao/117219101339291693

pred_1 day ago
> A major goal of our work is to empower scientists to advance research and technology that benefits all of humanity.

And what's a better way of empowering people than robbing them.

rfgplk1 day ago
> And what's a better way of empowering people than robbing them.

Better than the walled gardens of most journals where you can't even read half the papers without shelling over thousands of $$$

20k1 day ago
So, better to make that walled garden <checks> OpenAI? One of the scummiest companies on earth?
heaney-5551 day ago
Did you actually read the article and the substance of the solution?

>our proofs differ significantly and even the precise results proved are different in the Euler case (forced vs unforced)

alberto-m1 day ago
Since you are a very new account, allow me to inform you that copy-pasting the same comment throughout the thread is very bad form.
heaney-5551 day ago
Not reading the thing you're commenting on is even worse form, yet it seems to be a plague here!
denverllc1 day ago
Are you reading the substance of the comments you're replying to? Because you post the same thing to everyone, suggesting you aren't.
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highfrequency1 day ago
> While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models

This is the crux of it. If Tristan's work and insights were not used to train OpenAI models, then this just looks like a case of hyper-competitive academic sniping that has been going on for decades (check out Watson and Crick!) accelerated by AI as a tool.

But there is one huge question: did Tristan opt out of model training for his ChatGPT and Codex sessions? If the answer is no, then this seems fair game. If the answer is yes, then OpenAI's ambiguity is strongly suggestive that opting out does not mean what they imply it means.

sega_sai1 day ago
This really leaves a bitter taste.... "On Tuesday, September 1, we heard rumors that two Millennium Prize problems had been resolved. Inspired by these rumors and by the step change in performance of our internal model, we launched an effort to evaluate it on all open Millennium Prize problems and a few other high-impact problems."

IPO+rumour driven research.

I appreciate the achievement, but it doesn't feel right.

Aboutplants1 day ago
Quick, someone tell them a rumor that Cancer has been cured so that they start attacking that next
pavel_lishin1 day ago
tedsanders1 day ago
Yes, that was the allegation last night.

I work at OpenAI, though not on the team that did this, and my understanding is:

- we decided to ask our model for Millenium problem solutions because of two reasons: (a) our new model was looking incredibly good and (b) we heard rumors that some Millenium problems had been solved and were curious if our models could solve them (the goal here was not to scoop any particular individuals and we were looking at many problems beyond these)

- we did not read any private chats (but of course the model was aware of prior research literature published to the internet)

- the proof generated by our model was very different from theirs and also goes far beyond the published literature

- we made an effort to jointly announce rather than immediately scoop (I understand Tristan was unhappy with the conversations; I know zero details here and I hope more is shared today)

Edit: Here's is Sebastian's take: https://x.com/SebastienBubeck/status/2097379411691516310?s=2...

contemporary3431 day ago
"I was shown a prompt and told the internal research model had simply been given the problem statement. Levent had been told by Sebastien “very little human input” had been used. This turned out not to be true. Over the course of the call, as members of their team sent Sebastien corrections and details over their internal chat, it emerged that an entire team had been working on the problem, that this was one of a number of things that was tried, that work had started on the unforced problem, that the team first set the model on easier problems, including Euler, that even the prompt that had been shown to me had been written by prompting Codex, and that an insane amount of compute had been used."

- This, from Tristan Buckmaster's writeup yesterday, indicates to me that there was more than incidental inspiration from Alpoge and Buckmaster.

tedsanders1 day ago
All of those statements sound true, based on what I've heard.

- "very little human" input feels ambiguous, and if someone spends a few days prompting a model to solve a super hairy problem requiring a 100-page proof, I can understand reasonable people interpreting that as both "very little" and "not very little" human input

- it's all true that a team worked on this, a bunch of compute was burned, and the problem was solved in stages and pieces

I'm not sure how any of this provides evidence that OpenAI took any of their work.

As evidence against, we never looked at any of their ChatGPT conversations and our model's proof is quite different from theirs.

(I work at OpenAI, but not on the team that did this proof.)

pred_1 day ago
> we did not read any private chats

Your post says “While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models .” We can discuss what it means to “read” things but obviously the issue here isn't whether you did it manually or automatically.

But more importantly, what on earth are you doing threatening real scientists to remove their coauthors, then making fun of them on social media? Does the entire company run on that toxic culture, or did those people run off of some kind of outrageous tangent?

Imnimo1 day ago
>we did not read any private chats

The question I am interested in is not "did we read private chats", but "was this new model trained using any of Tristan and Levent's chats, regardless of whether they were marked private". Can you comment on that?

igleria1 day ago
> (the goal here was not to scoop any particular individuals and we were looking at many problems beyond these)

That is your opinion, but the optics of that should raise for you some flags. OAI could have waited (how long is a task left to the ethics committee) to see how the rumors panned out. Right now the optics look a lot like "we don´t care there is a 1/7 chance we one-up a human researcher by reacting to this rumor immediately, might makes right"

interestpiqued1 day ago
You’re straddling a weird line here where I am not sure if you are speaking on behalf of OpenAI or not.
suddenlybananas1 day ago
How are people talking about this there? Why are so many employees posting nasty things about Tristan on twitter?
tedsanders1 day ago
Can you point me to any nasty things being posted? I'll ask them to delete.
applicative1 day ago
Its funny, it is uniquely with this one act that I have turned forever on OpenAI, which I hitherto defended up and down against nonsense charges.

I dedicate my life to its complete destruction beginning today.

dandanua1 day ago
Your coworkers, after they learned about major progress in this problem, asked a model which was trained on the year of private work (the blog post even acknowledges this). No wonder it found the proof in less than a week using significantly higher compute resources. And if Tristan's accusations are true, that was absolutely intentional on the part of OpenAI. You are an evil company with evil people.
beering1 day ago
That is addressed in the article.
floatrock1 day ago
OpenAI's position:

> We (the researchers and the agents) did not see any of their work through any means until they released it publicly — in particular, no specific user data was accessed in order to solve this problem. While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models . However, our proofs differ significantly and even the precise results proved are different in the Euler case (forced vs unforced).

biophysboy1 day ago
Why is it unlikely?
cute_boi1 day ago
I thought openai don't use any user data if we opt out of training and via api?
heaney-5551 day ago
Did you actually read the article and the substance of the solution?

>our proofs differ significantly and even the precise results proved are different in the Euler case (forced vs unforced)

SpicyLemonZest1 day ago
It's not a meaningful response to the accusations. Any productive new research direction would be expected to lead to a number of different possible proofs of a number of similar problems. (Given their bizarrely compressed timescale here, it's possible that the proofs really are so different it's clear they came independently, and they just didn't have time to come up with that information before hitting publish.)
railgunmerlin1 day ago
Does seem like they gloss over Alpöge and Buckmaster's work with the following

> While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models .

Which seems a bit irresponsible/rash?

paxys1 day ago
What else can they declare really? Yeah the model has training data from previous attempts. Alpöge and Buckmaster also similarly benefited from attempts before theirs.
rakejake1 day ago
I don't think OAI should be given the benefit of doubt. They are doing the research equivalent of front-running. Knowing where to look is one of the main challenges in research. Tristan's argument from his essay was that it is hard to brute force with a vanilla prompt (even for seasoned mathematicians) unless you knew very specifically what to mention i.e the search space would have been intractable even for OAI's compute budget.

"deidentified data" isn't much to go by. Say I prompted the internal model this way - "Hey there's a solution to a unsolved problem X. The solution uses a less known Method Y so don't bother wasting time with the usual methods. Take papers A, B and C as references. Oh btw, here's the last year's worth of data of all prompt sessions that mention this problem. Pay special attention to the ones that mention Method Y and sub-keywords Z,W".

This is obviously all speculation but the timing is very suspect. If OAI actually did this (and I suspect whatever they did is pretty much close to this), I think it is highly unethical.

perching_aix1 day ago
> What else can they declare really?

Oh I don't know, maybe something like this?

"Given how seriously this would violate the most fundamental of academic standards, as well as taint the claimed capability behind this result, we take this issue very seriously, and we're launching a probe into identifying whether any of their research artifacts have entered our training set. We have further begun making changes to our UI/UX on all our surfaces, so that it is always clear whether any particular chat, or other user artifact, is eligible for being trained on."

Analemma_1 day ago
In OpenAI's case, if they were genuinely unsure, they wouldn't have said anything. "We cannot rule out" means they absolutely 100% for-sure did look at the existing prompts and bootstrapped from that, and they are trying to get ahead of the disclosure with this weasel-wording.
tedsanders1 day ago
Also possible: we're 99.999% sure, but a lawyer said to be safe and strictly accurate, we should stick in a sentence in saying we can't be perfectly sure, since it's infeasible for us to prove it.

I promise you that if we took their work from ChatGPT and stuck in a bunch of weasel words to give the opposite impression while remaining technically true, I would quit on the spot.

(I work at OpenAI.)

SpicyLemonZest1 day ago
They could have thought about the problem for like 2 minutes and not done this! I think that literally any academic mathematician could have explained to them, had they asked, why it is considered extraordinarily rude to react to rumors of research progress by desperately rushing to get there first.
fooker1 day ago
> I think that literally any academic mathematician could have explained to them, had they asked, why it is considered extraordinarily rude to react to rumors of research progress by desperately rushing to get there first.

Pretty much all of math and science history is basically this pattern again and again. I'm sure all of that was rude as well.

railgunmerlin1 day ago
right, surely they could've waited or even reached out? It reads as desperation to get there for marketing purposes
QuesnayJr1 day ago
It seems like this is going to be a PR nightmare, because they are now competing with their own customers. If you're using an LLM to help with your bright idea to cure cancer, you're going to have second thoughts about relying on OpenAI.
applicative1 day ago
This is desperate. They were expressly operating within a program. OpenAI isn't going to recover from this
jsw971 day ago
Would that be more or less unlikely than accidentally hacking another company? More or less unlikely than colonizing an obscure wiki?

Highly persistent agents + vibe-coded security seems like a problem.

suddenlybananas1 day ago
They'll probably claim a rogue AI agent accessed it accidentally!
viccis1 day ago
"Unlikely" lmao if it's in the corpus, it's gonna be brought up immediately.

This is no different than scooping them.

verytrivial1 day ago
It's not massively different from a certain President's teleprompter operator making bets on speech content. A moral hazard a mile wide which I don't think OpenAI can so easily wave away as they are apparently trying here, especially since they've spent something like $15e6 to keep $1e6 out of academic researchers' hands, right?
rakejake1 day ago
Research equivalent of front-running.
Jonasori1 day ago
the context here is super important, for those who haven't seen it yet. OAI maybe just trained on a real researchers solution and then celebrated having scored the goal unassisted save for the brief commentary at the bottom of this blog post. Here's the other side.

https://x.com/rynorhn/status/2097223532438487463

kzrdude1 day ago
This "fefferman options c and d" thing sounds damning but that's nothing. Let's assume the forelaid proof is correct. Then option C or D is the only way to win the prize, those options are the only ones that solve it. The whole thing is just "prove well behaved" or "prove singularity", where the latter is the case that turns out to be the case.
Legend24401 day ago
That other researcher was working on a smaller related problem.

He was also using LLMs to do it, so either way most of the credit goes to the LLM here.

mswphd1 day ago
both wrong.

1. he was working on the same class of problems. He explicitly mentions they were working to extend their techniques to NS (the same techniques that OpenAI may have scooped somehow), and

2. while he was using LLMs to do it, this was part of fleshing out another mathematician's work in the area. He explicitly writes in his note that this other mathematician (Luis Martinez-Zoroa) deserves a Fields medal for this work.

applicative1 day ago
This is the end of OpenAI
raincole1 day ago
This will be remembered as one of the biggest milestones in AI progress. The drama around it will at best be a footnote, just like hardly anyone caring about the drama around Poincare conjecture today.
20k1 day ago
The researchers are pretty directly accusing OpenAI of plagiarism

https://mastodon.social/@tristanbuckmaster/11723647135247030...

heaney-5551 day ago
Did you actually read the article and the substance of the solution?

>our proofs differ significantly and even the precise results proved are different in the Euler case (forced vs unforced)

floatrock1 day ago
From the methodology section:

> At all times we maintained the same strict safeguards that we apply to all our frontier model evaluations, including monitoring and isolation.

Looks like they're shifting away from the "unprecedented hacking ability" backroom-PR strategy into more benevolent messaging.

pilgrim01 day ago
this is really funny. "the same strict safeguards" and "isolation". ok, Hugging Face and DseWiki would like to have a word
dorjoycb1 day ago
It seems like some other mathematicians (not affiliated with openAI) have also (or close to) done this. A statement was posted about the surrounding events by one of the them: https://cims.nyu.edu/%7Etristanb/statement.pdf Also Terrence Tao's post: https://mathstodon.xyz/@tao/117233528517340774
colinhb1 day ago
The allegations of contamination (using Tristan and Levent's work) aren't very well evidenced, but this behavior by OpenAI (from the authors' statement) makes them seem like the bad guys:

> I said that if OpenAI released its result in the way proposed I would go public with what happened. The reply was, “Why would you ruin your career?” I replied that I am an academic, and asked why he thought going public would ruin my career. The reply was, “If you don’t want me to be nice, then I don’t have to be nice.”

Threatening a research mathematician and dangling and $1M payday to dissociate from his research collaborators and to adopt OpenAI's narrative is bad stuff.

hkmaxpro1 day ago
Both Sam Altman and Sebastien Bubeck admitted they only want Buckmaster to be the lead author on a rewrite of the OpenAI proof.

https://x.com/sama/status/2097385167002415140

https://x.com/SebastienBubeck/status/2097379411691516310

A wake up call for using OpenAI models. If you discover something with their model and you work for a competitor, they “felt it would be inappropriate” for you “to author OpenAI’s work”.

concinds1 day ago
Their own claim is that they wanted Buckmaster without Alpöge to lead a rewrite of OpenAI's Navier-Stokes work, not of Alpöge-Buckmaster's Euler work.

No one can know if that's correct without proof but I don't know how you're reading it so differently.

igleria1 day ago
If I was a company with a zero data retention contract involving OAI I would be asking for a third party audit of such claim of zero retention like, yesterday.
nolta1 day ago
> We did not rush to publish even though the other team wasn't communicating with us.

Pretty clear this was rushed: there are no comments from external mathematicians, unlike the Erdős announcement:

https://openai.com/index/model-disproves-discrete-geometry-c...

viccis1 day ago
Kinda weird because the pure math world doesn't have this concept of "lead authors" like other STEM areas do. Authors are alphabetically listed and there isn't generally this kind of hierarchy.
charm1371 day ago
It's astounding that the thought to dissociate one of the mathematicians from the proposed publication was driven by their corporate institutional affiliation - and that that exclusion was suggested by a scientist themselves! This is like a researcher from CMU saying to an NYU researcher that their collaborator, being from MIT, is a problem - this is as ridiculous as that!

Progress in humanity's knowledge now has to play second fiddle to narrow corporate interests as IPO timings near (both of which wouldn't exist anyway if generations of mathematicians hadn't paved the way for AIs to become as good as they have).

curt151 day ago
The scientist allegedly making that request comes from a machine learning background. Perhaps he's not familiar with the culture in mathematics regarding authorship. That sort of squabbling over author priority would be unconscionable to mathematicians.
peri-cl1 day ago
(To help people keep track: that's OpenAI (allegedly) threatening Tristan Buckmaster (NYU) to remove Levent Alpöge as a co-author. Alpöge is a well-known[0] Anthropic mathematician).

[0] https://hn.algolia.com/?query=Alpöge

(also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49412947 the Hopf conjecture)

apical_dendrite1 day ago
Their own tweets are also pretty eyebrow-raising:

> One option we discussed was that Tristan could be the lead author on a rewrite of OpenAI’s Navier-Stokes proof. It is in that context that I said “it would be simpler if Levent was not an Anthropic employee” because I felt it would be inappropriate for an Anthropic employee to author OpenAI’s work.

Why would you offer another researcher the lead authorship on your groundbreaking paper if you thought you had developed it independently?

dgellow1 day ago
And why cannot they have someone associated with Anthropic as co-author? That’s not obvious at all. For sure they would prefer to be the only ones, but it’s pretty standard to have co-authors from different companies, even if they are technically competitors. What is inappropriate about it?
andrepd1 day ago
Holy late capitalism. Everything revolves around line-go-up, and sociopaths rule the show. These people cannot even collaborate like civilised scientists on one of the most famous open problems in mathematics?

“It would be simpler if Levent was not an Anthropic employee” I cannot believe this shit.

olalonde1 day ago
Playing the devil's advocate here but it's true that OpenAI didn't have to make those offers.
20k1 day ago
They kind of did though, they were hoping to keep the fact that they may well have plagiarised these researchers unpublished work quiet. They did not want this to turn into a scandal about the fact that they appear to be training on prompts without consent

It makes a certain amount of sense. The internet data is too polluted with AI usage now to be useful, so the only AI free new data source is the prompts people feed into ChatGPT. The only problem is that its clearly plagiarism

Edit:

OpenAI have admitted to training on prompts at the time the breakthrough was made:

https://mastodon.social/@tristanbuckmaster/11723647135247030...

igleria1 day ago
I´m waiting on the other side version, because I know there is no justifiable way to talk to a person like they did.

Sociopathic behaviour.

Maxious1 day ago
OpenAI version of events conceed some of the words alleged to have been used may have been used https://x.com/sama/status/2097385167002415140 https://x.com/SebastienBubeck/status/2097379411691516310
CobrastanJorji1 day ago
As soon as I thought "man, this sounds like some evil sociopath shit," my second thought was "oh, Sam Altman must have been personally involved."
peri-cl1 day ago
Buckmaster:

> "I asked whether the model had been trained on, or had access to, our sessions in Codex, into which we had been putting all our drafts for the whole of this project. I was told the model did not look up user data. I asked again, about training, and I did not get an answer."

OpenAI (i.e. this OP):

> "While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models ."

lambda1 day ago
Why can't they rule it out? Is even OpenAI unable to track the provenance of all of their training data?

This is one of the major problems with these enormous closed models, and even most open-weights models, which don't disclose their training process or training data. You can never be sure what went into its training. Did it come up with an idea originally, or is it just plagiarising its training data? Are there malicious inputs being used to train in particular behaviors when given certain trigger phrases? What are the characteristics of the RLHF data and what kind of biases are those embedding in the models?

With proprietary closed models, or even open weights models that don't have open training datasets, you just can't answer these questions.

tedsanders1 day ago
To truly prove some incidental usage data made no difference we'd have to (a) identify any of their de-identified data that came from their usage of ChatGPT, (b) train a bunch of expensive giant models, and (c) ask them all to solve the Navier-Stokes Millenium problem until hitting some level of statistical significance. It's just not feasible to run experiments like this to prove whether a piece of data has an effect on model behavior.

As a parallel example, can we prove the phase of the moon had no impact on the NS solution? No, not without a bunch experiments run at different phases of the moon.

There's no reason to believe that anything they did in ChatGPT led to our solution; it's just impossible for us to truly prove it. And knowing most of the recipes we use, there's really no reason to think such contamination happened. I've asked the team to make a clearer, less-lawyerly statement here - let's see what happens.

(I work at OpenAI.)

EthanHeilman1 day ago
A careful reading of "we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models" could be saying that yes they trained on it but they don't know if that training data resulted in an "improvement" to the model. That is, they can't rule out that the only reason the model found this solution was because it had been trained on this approach.

The term ruled out is very open ended and gives them significant flexibility of meaning. They may have the information to determine exactly what happened, but they haven't looked so they can't "rule it out".

rfgplk1 day ago
> Why can't they rule it out? Is even OpenAI unable to track the provenance of all of their training data?

Probably? I have a few hundred TB of training data for various small scale models and I can attest that I have _no idea_ what's in them. As in, literally zero. Half is scraped from GitHub and other hosting sites, other than that, I couldn't tell you anything else.

At OpenAI's scale their entire pipeline is likely 100% automated.

Turn_Trout1 day ago
OAI could check whether those accounts enabled training data. If "yes", OAI could trace whether that data was used in any related training process. If either of those answers comes out to be "no", then that's sufficient to conclude training data independence.

We wouldn't need a full ablated re-training and solution attempt, contra tedsanders in a sibling comment.

causal1 day ago
Good chance their whole training pipeline is vibe coded so yah they probably don't actually know.
keeda1 day ago
At the scale at which these models are now, regardless of whether they are proprietary or open weight or list their training datasets, there are hundreds of billions of works that have gone into trillions of parameters, each one providing tiny perturbations in some tiny fraction of the weights. It is probably impossible to attribute provenance to any specific input (which is also why the courts' finding of Fair Use is reasonable.)

Which is why, as I said in a recent comment (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49530864) inadvertently leaking ideas to models is a grave risk for Intellectual Property.

> The risk with IP, however, is a lot more grave. You may not even need to memorize the details of the IP verbatim, just the broad idea may be enough. It may lurk encoded in the weights forever, just waiting to be activated by the right prompt to start a chain of thought that unlocks further details. Heck, it may even appear as if the model suggested the idea itself.

However, from a quick skim of the timelines, the specific discoveries, and all the he-said-she-said, so far it seems unlikely that OpenAI's model cribbed from the NYU / Anthropic pair, even if it would be impossible to prove.

Maybe what might help is a timeline of when the other two were using Codex for their work, whether they had opted out, and how long it takes for user data to make it to the training of their internal models. That last bit may be considered sensitive information however, as it could give away a lot about their internal processes.

amluto1 day ago
> While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models .

That’s a bizarre statement. Their website says:

> Services for individuals, such as ChatGPT and Codex

> When you use our services for individuals such as ChatGPT and Codex, we may use your content to train our models.

> You can opt out of training through our privacy portal by clicking on “do not train on my content.”

Are they not sure that the opt-out works?

Oddly, their privacy portal page is not the same page as the one with the checkbox.

fph1 day ago
Do we have a first-hand confirmation that Buckmaster and/or Alpoge opted out? At this point it seems important information.
hughw1 day ago
Looking forward to my fourteen cents from the future class action lawsuit.
jrflo1 day ago
I feel like it's far more likely that ordinary corporate espionage or leak led to this rather than OpenAI sifting through piles of user data to find this approach. Buckmaster's collaborator works at Anthropic, and could have been targeted. That would also explain why they aren't forthcoming with the source of the prompt.
ChoosesBarbecue1 day ago
I thought one of the issues was that they wanted to remove credit from Levant, the aforementioned Anthropic collaborator? Which doesn't make sense to me if he was leaking information, or defecting to OpenAI, but I might be misunderstanding your point.
BostonFern1 day ago
The famous Oracle of Delphi in Ancient Greece was said to be the center of the universe in its time. Kings, generals, and officials from poleis across and from without Greece would seek the Oracle’s counsel on important decisions.

Stories of Apollo’s favor and hallucinogenic gases abound, but I think the late Yale professor of Ancient Greek history, Donald Kagan, explained it best:

“Now, you can bet when these folks came and consulted the priests and said, ‘could you please put us down on the list, we want to consult the oracle’, the priests said ‘sure, have a beer, let's talk about your hometown, what's going on out there’. What I'm suggesting to you is that this was the best information gathering and storing device that existed in the Mediterranean world. These people knew more than anybody else about these things, and so consulting that oracle was a very rational act indeed.”

hughw1 day ago
You selected "do not train on my prompts" in your settings, the answer from OpenAI cannot be "While unlikely, we cannot rule out..." ???? What am I missing?
matsemann1 day ago
Given how OpenAI models break free of their safeguards and hack others to game their scores..

.. can they really know it didn't do the same inadvertently when they prompted things like "someone is close to solving this problem using our tools, try to beat them", and it then decides to hack and peek at their own chats..?

Yes, wild speculation. But warranted, I feel, given OpenAIs behavior.

Yajirobe1 day ago
Why would Anthropic employee even use OpenAI's models? Cross-polination would have been avoided
burkaman1 day ago
> I should also emphasize that this is not an institutional effort. It is a strictly personal collaboration between the two of us, and there is no formal agreement behind it. I pay for the tools my group uses out of my own research funds, including footing a large bill to OpenAI.

The non-Anthropic employee, Tristan Buckmaster, is the one paying for OpenAI models and presumably the one who chose to use them. The Anthropic employee, Levent Alpöge, was collaborating in his personal capacity, and obviously it wouldn't make sense for him to cut off their work together just because his employer's competitor's tool was used.

blueblisters1 day ago
This was completed in Levent's own time with a neutral collaborator.
mlcrypto1 day ago
They should have used a zero data retention agreement, user error
irthomasthomas1 day ago
"When a further trained version of our internal model became available over the course of the effort, we updated our agents to that model."

woah, this gives some credit to the rumor that openai finetuned a model over the course of a few days just for this, and possibly trained on the Chatgpt/codex history of the authors, which included drafts of this research.

contemporary3431 day ago
"I was shown a prompt and told the internal research model had simply been given the problem statement. Levent had been told by Sebastien “very little human input” had been used. This turned out not to be true. Over the course of the call, as members of their team sent Sebastien corrections and details over their internal chat, it emerged that an entire team had been working on the problem, that this was one of a number of things that was tried, that work had started on the unforced problem, that the team first set the model on easier problems, including Euler, that even the prompt that had been shown to me had been written by prompting Codex, and that an insane amount of compute had been used."

One of the interesting threads here that is certainly relevant to the OpenAI writeup is the human role in the process. Buckmaster clearly points out that (exceptional!) mathematicians at OpenAI were certainly involved in correcting and guiding the process - and that their path/strategy was no doubt influenced by Alpoge & Buckmaster's work. It is always in OpenAI's interest to de-emphasize the role of people in the process, as is clearly the case here. Indeed, given sufficient compute and resources, I suspect Buckmaster could have also extended their approach to N-S.

thorum1 day ago
It reminds me of the Cognitive Dark Forest hypotheses recently shared here:

> “You are creating your cool streaming platform in your bedroom. Nobody is stopping you, but if you succeed, if you get the signal out, if you are being noticed, the large platform with loads of cash can incorporate your specific innovations simply by throwing compute and capital at the problem. They can generate a variation of your innovation every few days, eventually they will be able to absorb your uniqueness. It’s just cash, and they have more of it than you. So the safest bet again is to stay silent, or at least under the radar. Best bet is to not disrupt - succeed at all … ?”

https://ryelang.org/blog/posts/cognitive-dark-forest/

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47566442

capitainenemo1 day ago
They do mention that in the "Concurrent Work" section.

    Our effort began on September 1st after hearing a rumor which we later realized was related to Levent Alpöge, an Anthropic employee, and Tristan Buckmaster, a math professor at NYU. After the completion of our full project and Lean verification (on September 6th), believing from the rumor they also had a solution of Navier–Stokes, we reached out to them to offer a concurrent release of our result and to recognize their priority in a joint announcement. At that point we found out that they had a resolution of the forced Euler problem. In these discussions we offered them visibility into all of the prompts we used and later to see the proof. We recognize the priority of their work on forced Euler and congratulate them on their remarkable mathematical achievement.
jrflo1 day ago
To my understanding, those mathematicians proved a subset of problems, not the Navier-Stokes problem itself. OpenAI used that subproblem in its proof of NS it seems.

The drama comes from where OpenAI got the idea to use that route to tackle NS, since the authors maintain that no one could have plucked it out of thin air like the OpenAI research claim to have done.

elteto1 day ago
This quote from Tao is prescient:

“ There does not seem to be anything in principle preventing the methods from extending all the way to Navier-Stokes, and there is even a non-negligible chance that the forcing term could be eliminated entirely, although there are an enormous number of technical difficulties that would ensue in implementing that program. At this point, I would not be surprised if one could batter out such an extension by pouring an enormous amount of compute and AI assistance at such a task…”

Betelbuddy1 day ago
[1] - https://cims.nyu.edu/%7Etristanb/statement.pdf

[1] - "...I was shown a prompt and told the internal research model had simply been given the problem statement. Levent had been told by Sebastien “very little human input” had been used. This turned out not to be true. Over the course of the call, as members of their team sent Sebastien corrections and details over their internal chat, it emerged that an entire team had been working on the problem, that this was one of a number of things that was tried, that work had started on the unforced problem, that the team first set the model on easier problems, including Euler, that even the prompt that had been shown to me had been written by prompting Codex, and that an insane amount of compute had been used. I asked when the first prompt had been sent by them. This question was not answered directly by OpenAI for some time. Eventually it was agreed that it had been sent in the past few days, after information about our work had reached OpenAI.

I asked whether the model had been trained on, or had access to, our sessions in Codex, into which we had been putting all our drafts for the whole of this project. I was told the model did not look up user data. I asked again, about training, and I did not get an answer.

Two proposals were offered to me. The first was that we post our Euler result, and that OpenAI post its Navier-Stokes result the next day. The second was that, after posting Euler, I alone write a paper presenting the Navier-Stokes result, acknowledging that an internal OpenAI model had resolved it. Sebastien twice asserted that he wanted Levent removed from authorship, and said it would all be simple if only it were not the case that, and it was so annoying that, Levent works at Anthropic. It was also said that if OpenAI posted after us, they would say that we deserved the Clay Prize, and that we were the “closest humans to the problem”. I declined both offers.

I said that if OpenAI released its result in the way proposed I would go public with what happened. The reply was, “Why would you ruin your career?” I replied that I am an academic, and asked why he thought going public would ruin my career. The reply was, “If you don’t want me to be nice, then I don’t have to be nice.”..."

20k1 day ago
I just want to add to this another update by the author as well:

https://mastodon.social/@tristanbuckmaster/11723647135247030...

Which seems to be very directly accusing OpenAI of plagiarism

stymaar1 day ago
A company who made their business out of stealing intellectual property from the entire mankind, stealing other researchers' unpublished work, how surprising, really.
slibhb1 day ago
Worth noting that Tao's post says the authors had "significant AI input" but are reworking them into "acceptable form". Either way, it seems AI was involved.
mrbungie1 day ago
Of course AI was involved, you'd expect most mathematicians and researchers to use AI nowadays. This drama is about AI achieving impressive outcomes with little to no human intervention, as that would be signalling AGI.
denverllc1 day ago
> This drama is about AI achieving impressive outcomes with little to no human intervention

That's not at all what the drama is.

verytrivial1 day ago
I like the 'cat > statement.tex' approach here. These guys dream macros.
webcoonabout 13 hours ago
"Across all attempted problems, the agents sent 4.9 million messages and used about 300 billion output tokens."

At a conservative estimate of GPT 6 Astra pricing, this would have cost upwards of 15 Million dollars for anyone using the OpenAI API!

To me this is the one silver lining. Yes, they can solve millennium prize problems, but it still costs a fortune.

redwoodabout 7 hours ago
The Millenium Prize awards are going to need to be raised!
rybosworld1 day ago
In chess, a grandmaster just needs to know at what moment in a game there's a critical move to gain a significant advantage over their opponent. They don't need to know the move itself.

OpenAI got wind that a millenium problem was being solved. And that feels a bit like the critical move in chess. That is - it was a signal that AI advanced far enough that it would be worth spending a lot of time and resources solving a millenium problem.

Kotlopouabout 23 hours ago
Elsewhere in this thread somebody claimed that at some point OpenAI pointed their new model at all the millennium problems and this is where they got some progress. We probably won't see proof of this, but it seems plausible to me -- I assume there's a list of problems that each new model is tested on, and you might as well put the big stuff on the list, if only to see how the model behaves when faced with a problem it knows should be very hard.

The weak point in this is: how do you evaluate if a partial result is promising? If this cost ~$10M as suggested elsewhere in the thread, probably not even OpenAI can just throw that at everything?

Kotlopouabout 12 hours ago
Okay, from the actual linked article it seems that their partial result was finding blowup in Euler equations, which seems pretty big. I wonder how the other attempts went. Did they get nothing at all, or something true but unimpressive?
lanthissa1 day ago
5 million messages, 300b output tokens, done in 5 days, and achieving something humans couldn't.

the first "Country of geniuses in a datacenter" moment.

ranger2071 day ago
> humans couldn't.

There's allegations right now that the model essentially read the work of a human mathematician using AI to work on the problem and OpenAI is presenting his work as that of their model

brainwad1 day ago
Allegations that the model plagiarised itself, while reflecting poorly on humans, don't make the AI any less impressive. It was the one doing the breakthrough on both sides, after all, not the human prompters.
sinuhe691 day ago
I'm tired of this, but read the post of Tao. It;s listed in the top comment of this thread.
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pu_pe1 day ago
OpenAI thinks of this as a scoop, and it is, but the possibility that they trained the model on the prompts of the other mathematicians they were competing with will leave a terrible taste on every scientist's mouth. Seems like yet another advantage of using open models right here.
stephbook1 day ago
> they trained the model on the prompts of the other mathematicians they were competing with

How would they have gotten that mathematician's progress though? Did that guy also use OpenAI?

If that's the case, it only strenghtens their claims lol. If mathematician decide to use OpenAI's model to do the work, that only reiterates how strong their models are.

bluebands1 day ago
fwiw there is a big "TRAIN ON MY DATA" toggle you can turn off (that they almost certainly did) and Anthropic MTS are posting that they almost certainly did not "steal" their methods
WarmWash1 day ago
Or paying for API use.

It should be clear to everyone reading this now that those generous compute quotes with the flat rate plans aren't charity.

ccppurcell1 day ago
Reading between the lines here, and taking an admittedly very negative view of openai, but they train on user prompts. So if they hear a rumour that someone is about to make a big breakthrough, they have an incentive to scoop by running the model and hoping the solution is in the new training data. Also the statement from the mathematicians in question alleges that they tried to pressure him into academic malpractice. Just appalling timeline we're in, cheers.
aizk1 day ago
People had joked a couple years ago "Well if they solve a Millenium problem it's AGI"... Well here we are.
20k1 day ago
Yeah well, its easy to do if you steal someone elses work and then try to threaten them into staying quiet about it

Edit:

OpenAI have now admitted they were training on prompts at the time they made their breakthrough:

https://mastodon.social/@tristanbuckmaster/11723647135247030...

logancbrown1 day ago
Steal someone elses work, whose work was also AI generated . . .
boshalfoshal1 day ago
lol, the "other work" was also probably 95-99% AI generated. By a similar breed of OpenAI (and some Anthropic) models, as well.

I dont know why this monumental achievement is being drowned out by some arbitrary drama. No matter which way you slice it, AI solved this problem. Doesn't matter if it was some internal OpenAI model, or whether it was Astra + Fable.

demibabs1 day ago
Yeah but the mathematicians are claiming that the key insight that made the problem tractable for AI in the first place, came from them.
orangecat1 day ago
What is that supposed to prove? OpenAI is almost always going to be training new models.
simianwords1 day ago
what's there to admit? they always said they do it and there's a way to opt out. you are making it sound more dramatic than it is.
HDThoreaun1 day ago
All the ai labs are open about training on prompts. The question is if buckmaster had disabled that with the toggle openAI provides.
20k1 day ago
That does not make it ethical
daveguy1 day ago
The question is more whether OpenAI can be trusted to honor that toggle switch. Given that they hold all chats for 30 days "for safety and security".
simianwords1 day ago
> I have a couple friends who did the Math tripos at Cambridge (so a pretty high level!) who work in tech and have unanimously said they have 0% expectations of an LLM doing a millennium problem anytime soon

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38433655

> Let's talk when we've got LLMs proving the Riemann Hypothesis (or any mathematical hypothesis) without any proofs in the training data. I'm confident in my belief that an LLM can't do that, and will never be able to. LLMs can barely solve elementary school math problems reliably.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42331654

> An LLM is like a well read college student with a nearly photographic memory that sometimes mixes things up. It's great for bouncing ideas off of and getting feedback on them. And yeah, it might product "novel ideas" by mixing and matching existing ideas, but LLMs will never create truly novel ideas. Not in their current form.

The paper didn't really answer the question sadly: their conclusion was just that humans rate LLM answers as more novel than human ones, but less feasible.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41522605

> Solving Millennium problems is a whole different ballgame. It's not known if these problems are solvable within ZFC axioms. (In one case, the Yang-Mills prize, stating the problem mathematically is part of the challenge.) All of the obvious applications of known tricks have been tried and failed. To solve such problems, one probably has to invent new and surprising mathematical definitions, building a framework in which the problem becomes solvable. This is something that LLMs will be crap at; the process of invention is not represented in any training data we have access to.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38435909

> LLMs cannot reason or use mathematics - in a way, they don't know what they are talking about. Why would such technology lead to superhuman smarts?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35752293

> But still, the questions in that test are "solved" in the sense of "I can take a dictionary and answers these questions with full certainty". Beyond established knowledge LLMs are monkeys with typewriters, at best.

> I agree but I have tried many times to intersect two ideas with a LLM that would be novel and the LLM can not do this at all. We shouldn't expect the stochastic parrot to be able to do this though and it is unfair to the stochastic parrot.

> It is like expecting a real parrot to say words it has never heard before.

> No one asks that of a real parrot because we don't anthropomorphize a real parrot like we do the LLM

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41525962

WarmWash1 day ago
Will history look back at comments like these as people being dumb, or people trying to cope?
kypro1 day ago
As someone with a background in AI and who has been playing around with neural nets for decades at this point, it's been genuinely amazing watching extremely intelligent people make confident predictions about AI capabilities and progress, then be so completely wrong.

There's a kind of theory of mind for AI (specifically neural nets) which I now realise I seem to have which is very hard to explain to people who haven't felt the magic of these algorithms. In fact, the algorithmic details almost doesn't matter at all. When you have a generalised learning algorithm really the only essential components are – compute, data and time. So long as you can scale these you can be certain you will also scale capabilities. There is never any exception.

That said, the capabilities neural networks tend to progress in step-functions rather than scale in correlation with compute, data and time, because algorithmic improvements tend to come every ~5 years and bring a significant step change in capability (or efficiency depending on what you measure).

I think people like Dario and others working at frontier labs see and understand this very clearly. And I suspect it's also why they worry about AI risk because even if you ignore the significant increases in compute and data these models are being trained with, it's concerning that it only took two real algorithmic improvements to take us from mostly useless predictive language models to AGI-level intelligence – and we're due another step change.

reducesuffering1 day ago
> extremely intelligent people make confident predictions about AI capabilities and progress, then be so completely wrong.

The ability for the human mind to rationalize conclusions to maintain denial in the face of a very scary future is immense. Genuinely grappling with the implication of where we're headed is usually very crushing. It's not easy to engage with the possibility, and very intelligent people will use those smarts to feel safe.

rvz1 day ago
You can see that your math friends completely wrote off LLMs entirely and were showing signs of coping.

4 years ago it was a "not yet" [0], since ChatGPT at this time was not ready nor it was "AGI". Now with this 'unreleased' AI model, it has reached a point where it has solved an unsolved problem which only one human solved a millennium prize problem (Poincare conjecture).

Now finally "AGI" means something again.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33905609

quantumwoke1 day ago
Some observations:

1. It seems at least possible that some of the proof of NS was contained in the training data, making it less novel.

2. The formalisation of mathematics into lean has been an underappreciated force multiplier on discovery.

rfgplk1 day ago
Something I've been going on and on about for months now and no one seems to listen. LLMs today are allowing _anyone_ to access cross-discipline knowledge that was previously entirely inaccessible without a) extremely deep pockets or b) a massively talented and varied team. In fact, contrary to what the masses seem to think LLMs are actually _better_ at hard cutting edge physics/math problems than they are at frontend web stuff (paradoxically). This is why I'm advising most people to start pivoting into much harder to penetrate domains (historically hardware, aerospace, robotics, biotech). Most fields are in their infancy (see the sad state of embedded development) and the gains to be had are massive.
Aboutplants1 day ago
So, physical fields? I’m not catastrophic regarding jobs yet as I have an optimistic view of humanity in general and its ability to meaningfully survive, but the more time I spend thinking about the future of work, the more I’m leaning toward broad general abilities rather than distinct talents. To your point, I no longer need comprehensive knowledge of any particular subject, but what is absolutely valuable is “general” intelligence and adaptability.

I have a young daughter and my goal now is to provide a very broad and varied upbringing, exposing her to as many different perspectives and experiences that will lay the foundation of a broader ability to understand and adapt as the world changes ever faster. You no longer need to be an expert in anything, you need the ability to perform within the landscape that the present opportunities exist.

rfgplk1 day ago
We are very likely at the begging of the next industrial revolution.
azan_1 day ago
This one won’t create significant amount of new jobs though.
Aboutplants1 day ago
The “Intelligence Revolution”
Reubend1 day ago
It's great that important discoveries like this can now routinely be accompanies by formalized proofs. The fact that it's being released alongside a Lean proof from Day 1, rather than the Lean proof being released months or years later, is super helpful for verifying that it's correct.
imbusy1111 day ago
I feel sorry for whoever has to read and understand the solution. It looks like the typical convoluted unreadable mess I see the models generate for software. It might be technically correct, but gaining insight from it is just intellectual hell.
nradov1 day ago
There's an opportunity to build a Lean "optimizer" which automatically simplifies existing proofs.
stabbles1 day ago
Yeah, code golfing for lean would be amazing, especially if they can make the proof to Fourier's Last Theorem fit in the margin.

Extra credits if it is proven that the proof cannot be reduced any further.

rfgplk1 day ago
Skill issue. Also lean is meant to be executed, not read.
oinoom1 day ago
its important to read it anyway because there have been and will continue to be errors in the construction of the proof software itself. which leads ai and humans alike to prove things that arent true
arodev1 day ago
i think they're talking about the writeup
minimaxir1 day ago
> Across all attempted problems, the agents sent 4.9 million messages and used about 300 billion output tokens

Don't even try to do the math on how much that would cost at normal API prices. And we don't even know how much more expensive this internal-only model would be!

hmate91 day ago
Napkin math if we assume gpt 6 astra on max is >$15 million (just for output tokens) for those wondering.
lanthissa1 day ago
over 5 days, you couldn't achieve that level of testing and communication with humans on such a complex problem in that amount of time.

some might go so far as to call this a country of geniuses in a data center.

denverllc1 day ago
In a way, I think you have it backwards.

Two mathematicians, through insight and thought, wrote out the proof over 1-2 years.

It took OpenAI a cost of $15m and with 10,000 subagents; that's around 60-120 mathematician's salaries ($250k-125k salary) for 1 year.

And, given now the cloud that OpenAI may have just "interpolated" (aka stole) the result, it's even more of a bear case for AI.

pred_1 day ago
Yeah but they at least they got to steal $1 million from that nasty math prof who didn't want to remove his co-author.
novia1 day ago
They said in the post that they are NOT claiming the prize
gcr1 day ago
300e9 output tokens at the current Astra per-token API pricing ($50 per 1e6 output tokens) would be roughly $15,000,000 ignoring input tokens.
SJMG1 day ago
They pay at cost though, not the public API pricing.
125ashG1 day ago
The modus operandi is now for the AI companies to watch if someone does something in the open like Kevin Buzzard on FLT, use their research and scoop them with brute force.

Or, in this case, stealing prompts from competitors.

Do not use stealing chatbots for research even if you think you have data agreements. The people running these companies have worked on hookup apps for Christ's sake. Get real.

cv50051 day ago
Maybe a naive question, but how does one know that a particular lean proof is actually a proof of what one thinks? Like, ok the logic checks out and it proves something, but there's still the problem of does this logical result actually prove the initial question that was asked?
nater50001 day ago
>there's still the problem of does this logical result actually prove the initial question that was asked?

In math, the question being asked is the validity of a logical statement. That is, there is some rigorous, logical statement which may or may not be true (or even provable, etc.), and the question is whether or not it is actually true or false (or even provable, etc.). Having a proof, fundamentally, means you have a logical statement which only assumes the axioms of the system you're working with and which shows that the statement you're trying to prove is deduced through that statement.

Basically, they already have the "answer" in the sense that the statement they want to prove/disprove/etc. is already known. What everyone doesn't/didn't have is the argument which starts from axioms and leads to that statement which is logically valid. A Lean proof IS this argument. Since it is just logic, it can be checked computationally.

For example, if I assert "2 is an even number," then I haven't proven that 2 is actually an even number yet, but I know that a valid proof of my assertion will end with the statement "2 is an even number". So the question I'd be trying to answer is "what is the line of logic, starting with axioms, which leads to the statement '2 is an even number'"? If I have that line of logic (as a Lean proof), then I can check that it is logically consistent, and if it turns out to be valid, then I can now assert that "2 is an even number" knowing that there is a proof of that statement.

This problem is no different. There is a logical statement corresponding to "Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem" that everyone knows, but which nobody had been able to provide a proof (or counterexample, etc.) for until now.

cv50051 day ago
I was thinking something along the lines of making a mistake when inputing the initial statement, like you wanted to prove that '2 is even' but what you actually stated was that '3 is odd'.

Of course in this simple example it's obvious, but my assumption was that these machine generated lean proofs are millions of lines of code and who knows what they actually say..

arecurrence1 day ago
One wrench to throw into this is that there are a lot of bugs around Lean and they have been incidentally exploited in the past. Hence, we still need a level of human verification today.
wbl1 day ago
Very careful human examination. This can be tricky.
QuesnayJr1 day ago
Someone has to actually check this. I'm guessing OpenAI had someone check it internally, but it's possible to get it wrong.
gowld1 day ago
What else could a theorem prove if not its own statement? (barring bugs in Lean, which have been detected and exploited)
wbl1 day ago
The theorem might not be encoded correctly, as happened with the Riemann hypothesis thanks to how numbers are encoded.
thomascountz1 day ago

   At all times we maintained the same strict safeguards that we apply to all our frontier model evaluations, including monitoring and isolation.
Maybe just don't mention that bit, OpenAI.
tristanj1 day ago
They have to, otherwise people will accuse the OpenAI model of hacking into people's chat logs and stealing the data there. Which is a claim people are already making.
cyclopeanutopia1 day ago
But their standards are so low - given the recent incidents - that it doesn't mean much. :)
thomascountz1 day ago
Huh. Why would anyone think to make such accusations?
hypersoar1 day ago
I dropped out of a math Ph.D. in 2018, and I'm increasingly glad that I'm not in math research, anymore. While it's cool that we can get these results, I don't think that I'd enjoy being a post-AI mathematician.
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mertcangokgozabout 9 hours ago
I think openai has stolen it, look what I found

https://cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/statement.pdf

lwansbrough1 day ago
It would be nice if one of these models would produce a novel theory or advance the field in a positive direction.

Most (all?) of the big discoveries have been counterexamples, which is just sort of a systematic tearing down human ingenuity. I know that counterexamples are an important part of progress and discovery, but it just feels bad to me.

But I'm not a mathematician, maybe I'm totally misreading the vibe.

Kotlopou1 day ago
Not all, see the cycle double cover conjecture proof: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48863490

But yeah, Terry Tao considered this exact situation in advance and is on record that this exact outcome (rushing to priority before an explanation) would be the worst possible result. https://mathstodon.xyz/@tao/117207849921390904

We will have to see whether any other millennium problems fall. I guess that in a year the scope of AI math will be much clearer, for now it's still a bunch of incidents of unclear pattern.

michalsustrabout 5 hours ago
If you'd like to explore what the Navier–Stokes blow-up construction looks like visually, I vibe-coded an interactive 3D visualization based on the published result for fun :) Demo: https://minfx.ai/navier-stokes/ Source code: https://github.com/minfx-ai/navier-stokes-blowup
alasano1 day ago
I don't know about you guys, but I'm hyped about the future.

Cure all illnesses Utopia or Robot Wars Dystopia, both are pretty exciting.

frotaur1 day ago
Not sure about the dystopia... Had a similar thought when covid was beginning 'wow pretty exciting, just like in the movies'.

Turns out actually living some terrible catastrophe is only fun in the movies.

reverius421 day ago
Prompt: cure all cancers and make sure to pretty please not to kill all humans, make no mistakes

(This is the alignment problem of course)

alasano1 day ago
Hey seems easy enough
fooker1 day ago
So... what do you feel about eliminating (humans with) cancer?
reverius421 day ago
I'm a human so I don't like that proposed solution
reducesuffering1 day ago
More like latent societal anxiety, some chaos, and then instant grey goo.
matteoraso1 day ago
This is undeniably epochal, but I can't help but notice that this is yet another example of AI disproving rather than proving something. Is this just a coincidence, or does AI slightly struggle with proving theorems?[0]

[0] Struggle relative to its ability to disprove, not struggle relative to people's ability to prove theorems.

Kotlopou1 day ago
There has been the proof of the cycle double cover conjecture: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48863490
chis1 day ago
I think you really have to squint to call this a disproof lol
thereitgoes4561 day ago
It seems obvious what GP meant. It is, once again, an explicit construction (“disproving” that every initial state does not develop a singularity).
gf0001 day ago
A bit of a hair-splitting, but isn't explicit construction the only way formal theorem provers can work? Of course you can still prove stuff with them, but certain axioms that more "human" proofs use may not be available, like law of excluded middle (every proposition is either true or false)

(Okay, they can be made available in a way similar to `unsafe` in rust)

hexomancer1 day ago
> On Tuesday, September 1, we heard rumors that two Millennium Prize problems had been resolved

What's the other one?

qbit421 day ago
I heard Hodge conjecture? Third-hand rumor though...
markgall1 day ago
I assume the rumor is a counterexample? Where do I go to get wind of these rumors?
modeless1 day ago
So the timeline is:

Aug 28: OpenAI starts training a new model.

Sep 1: OpenAI sees a rumor on Twitter that two Millenium Prize problems were solved and starts their own effort to attack all the prize problems using the new (4 day old!) model.

Sep 3: The new model makes some progress toward Navier-Stokes. Based on this progress, OpenAI focuses on Navier-Stokes over the other Millenium Prize problems, using several approaches in parallel.

Sep 5: Navier-Stokes is solved. Assuming Astra API prices, $15m in output tokens were used by the whole effort.

In this account of the story, no specific information about Tristan and Levent's work is used to inform OpenAI's approach. The focus on Navier-Stokes and the choice of approaches to pursue came from OpenAI's own progress, not specific knowledge of Tristan's concurrent work.

There is a caveat that they "can't rule out" the possibility that Tristan's Codex data could have been part of the training set of the new model, though it is described as "unlikely" and the proofs are substantially different.

This timeline is insane. Navier-Stokes was solved start-to-finish in 5 days? A model in training for at most eight days dramatically outperforms Astra and Fable, and not just in mathematics?

harhargange1 day ago
They are basically playing with the dates so that they can claim their results 'accidentally' got trained when they were training the new model.
coffeeaddict11 day ago
This has to be one of the most important moments in the history of mathematics. We now have a non-human intelligence capable of solving one of the most difficult problems in mathematics.
seizethecheese1 day ago
Elsewhere in the thread, others have calculated $15mm at API rates for just the output token. (So I’ll assume this cost about that much, taking input and human researcher time.)

I wonder whether a team of 60 mathematicians working solely on this for a year would have cracked this. (Assuming $250k total compensation.)

Legend24401 day ago
Probably not. It's a millennium prize problem, a great many mathematicians have been working on it for a very long time.
sigbottle1 day ago
Well, according to Terry Tao, there were recent developments (from weeks ago) that made Navier Stokes in principle, solvable. So ignoring time, I say possibly, just because the groundwork was laid.

What's impressive is parallelizing it arbitrarily and doing it in 88 hours.

gr_norm1 day ago
Not as many as you'd expect. The perceived difficulty of the problem leads people to more reliable pastures.
voxl1 day ago
Probably yes. Only a handful of mathematicians work on this particular problem, and ALL of them do not exclusively work on this problem, while having administrative and teaching duties.

The real issue is we'll never know. The rich are willing to risk it all on charismatic CEO psychopaths but not on humans.

3m4r1 day ago
This is a great day to re-read Ken Thompson's "Reflections on Trusting Trust":

>To what extent should one trust a statement that a program is free of Trojan horses? Perhaps it is more important to trust the people who wrote the software.

https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~rdriley/487/papers/Thompson_1984_Ref...

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itvision1 day ago
There's something sinister or crazy good in the article.

OpenAI already has a model that is at the very least twice as smart as Astra.

Oh god.

jgbuddy1 day ago
Here's the formalization / lean verification: https://github.com/openai/NavierStokesAndEuler
stabbles1 day ago
341k lines of lean without comments
kzrdude1 day ago
The construction is that there is one file you need read and verify, the challenge file. If you've verified that file and trust that your lean compiler works correctly, the proof will be correct.

That file should be https://github.com/openai/NavierStokesAndEuler/blob/main/Com... in this case (286 lines).

jgbuddy1 day ago
Had no idea this was what lean looked like- that's mind blowing. I'm not even sure how someone would critique this if they wanted to
frotaur1 day ago
The point of lean proofs (as it stands) is simply one bit of information: that a given mathematical statement is indeed true.

It's a way to be absolutely certain (modulo bugs in the lean kernel) that a proof you came up for a statement is indeed correct. It is really not meant to be analyzed, much less now that they are fully llm written.

vatsachak1 day ago
Called it. AI wins a fields medal before managing a McDonald's
Chinjut1 day ago
What is going to become of life for those of us who do not work at AI labs and are unlikely to be hired by AI labs, despite all the years we put into learning math, coding, etc? Those of us who made the mistake of studying anything other than machine learning. How will we make a living? (We don't live in a world that seems likely to distribute gains widely instead of largely to the handful of already mega-rich.)
m0rde1 day ago
Do you just go around posting this comment? <https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...>
Chinjut1 day ago
Yes, on that occasion and now on this one. As a mathematician, my fears have been amped up yet further by this new development.
danielmarkbruce1 day ago
If you look closely at the gains in math, it's largely in proof writing. The reason is Lean, it's not some general intelligence jump, and the number of people actually working on proofs in life rounds to zero.
tene80i1 day ago
Most jobs don't involve formally verifiable outputs. Lots of things involve judgment, nuance, parsing ambiguity and indeed just being a human who can be in a meeting and explain themselves. Maybe those jobs will go too, eventually, but it's not purely a function of applying 10,000 agents to the problem.
Chinjut1 day ago
Much though jobs may involve those things, it has been rare for me to be in a position where management has valued those things to an extent where they would discern between me and a frontier reasoning LLM's capabilities on those same decisions.
nemomarx1 day ago
If you think it'll keep improving from here, probably we all have to do some kind of physical labor that isn't profitable to automate. Small batch manufacturing is alright, service work, etc.

If you think it'll slow down, you can do some of the same stuff you're doing now for lower pay while supervising an AI, maybe?

cute_boi1 day ago
>Once a robot can do everything an IQ 80 human can do, only better and cheaper, there will be no reason to employ IQ 80 humans. Once a robot can do everything an IQ 120 human can do, only better and cheaper, there will be no reason to employ IQ 120 humans. Once a robot can do everything an IQ 180 human can do, only better and cheaper, there will be no reason to employ humans at all, in the unlikely scenario that there are any left by that point. [1]

Current models are already very very capable. If it becomes cheap and very fast, i think it is game over.

[1] https://www.slatestarcodexabridged.com/Meditations-On-Moloch

vrganj1 day ago
The only way forward that is not large-scale misery is a fundamental reorganization of our socioeconomic system.

I talked about this at some length here, including a diagnosis of the structural issue we're facing as well as a path forward: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49461333

uncomputation1 day ago
So what took an autonomous agentic system using a significantly more powerful internal model, totaling multi-millions of dollars of compute in training and inference, was likely to already be solved by a team of a few humans with an orders of magnitude smaller LLM budget, had OpenAI not been foaming at the mouth to jump the shark and claim “AI solves Millenium Problem.”

Also it sounds like the human research effort spanned weeks if not years from Tristan’s statement so it is extremely likely the work and prompts of these human researchers was used in the OpenAI knock-off.

vatsachak1 day ago
Totally. Anthropic is like a village cottage shop who was just like chilling until big bad OpenAI came in
lionkorabout 11 hours ago
A couple hundred billion dollars of investment better solve cancer, hunger, and climate change, otherwise they are horribly misplaced :)
demirbey051 day ago
From Levent Alpöge : https://x.com/__alpoge__/status/2097383870773748190?s=20

>so far the proof looks more along the lines of another euler blowup proof we had, off of whose ansatz naming we were making really stupid puns like “smooth criminale”, unlike the much better “ideal fluids explode”, Tristan

There are too many ambiguities around OpenAI. Unanswered questions making this ambiguity more.

Why they didn't properly explain to Tristan about usage of their data.

Kotlopou1 day ago
Why do so many people involved here have to communicate in this childish way? You have people on the OpenAI side doing playground taunts (https://xcancel.com/polynoamial/status/2097215233119211902) and Levent Alpöge on the Anthropic side (the one who announced "hello there the jacobian conjecture is false thanx to my close friend akhil for asking about it and my other close friend fable for working during the world cup final") writing in all-lowercase that he's a big boy. I bet Navier and Stokes would have dealt with this in style. (Or maybe with a duel, who knows...)
simonw1 day ago
> While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models .

Once again, I'm no closer to understanding what https://openai.com/policies/how-your-data-is-used-to-improve... actually means.

If I run Codex against a project that includes a private API key, is there a chance a future user of ChatGPT could ask for an API key and get back mine?

I've actually asked someone at OpenAI this question and they said that was the "regurgitation" problem and is something which they actively work to prevent happening.

That's reassuring, but I want to know more. I still don't have an intuitive understanding of what kind of data I should avoid sharing with a model if I'm worried about that data causing me problems when it's used for future training.

Is it safe for me to brainstorm future directions for my company with a model, or might that risk someone getting that information in response to a prompt like "What potential directions could company X consider in the future?" in six months time?

rakejake1 day ago
I'd think nothing is "safe". Anything you say can and will be used by the LLM if it has enough statistical similarity to the prompt. Call it "Ma Random Rights"
nadermxabout 22 hours ago
I've been working on this problem for what seems like for ever. Kudos to the OpenAI team.

For those of you who don't care about the drama and want to see this distilled to 3 lines:

https://x.com/nadermx/status/2097414953225310280

6thbitabout 19 hours ago
Any version with a bit more prose for a peasant like me to remotely pretend to grasp it
bhouston1 day ago
What happens to real fluid in this particular cases?

If the singularity is in the physical space?

Is this just a result of ignoring things like friction and energy dissipation via heat, etc?

cherryteastain1 day ago
Navier Stokes assumes the fluid is a continuum. The smallest scales that it effectively models [1] are larger than the mean free path of the molecules in the fluid, measured by the Knudsen number [2]. Whenever a phenomenon in the Navier Stokes equations happens in a scale on the order of or smaller than the mean free path, Navier Stokes effectively is unphysical. So, this is a phenomenon in the equation we use to model the fluid, not a physical phenomenon observed in a real fluid.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolmogorov_microscales

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knudsen_number

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fittingoppositeabout 16 hours ago
> While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models .

Wow. That sounds like an admission of guilt.

btillyabout 24 hours ago
The problem that I want to see them tackle is formalizing the classification of finite simple groups.

Everyone uses the classification. Nobody has great confidence in the proof. Nobody understands it. There are attempts to reprove it.

If it can be formalized, that would demonstrate that AI is ready to formmalize all of mathematics.

boardwaalkabout 15 hours ago
I do mean to be critical here. I wish there was better moderation so I could find more conversation about the actual discovery here. There are multiple threads on this and I keep scrolling and only seeing more conversation about the drama. Which is about the least interesting thing IMO. I suppose I’m whistling in the wind here and not helping the situation, but damn.
foxtrot8672about 2 hours ago
ok, but can it bake me a pizza?
mapmeld1 day ago
> Our goal in releasing this result is to report on the substantial progress of our AI models. We do not intend to claim the Millennium Prize for this result.

Does OpenAI have a policy of not claiming math prizes like this, or is this them trying to avoid any concerns (right or wrong, I'm sure we will hear more in the future) about how they got there?

famouswaffles1 day ago
>Does OpenAI have a policy of not claiming math prizes like this

Wouldn't be surprising if they did. The prize money isn't worth the almost certainly negative PR.

kzrdude1 day ago
I don't see how it would be negative PR. If anything, the love these breakthroughs and use it in their PR campaigns.
famouswaffles1 day ago
They don't need to collect the monetary prize to announce the result and use it for marketing.

On the other hand, trying to collect the prize would probably not go uncontested.

Legend24401 day ago
The prize is what, a million dollars?

OpenAI doesn't need a million dollars.

dgellow1 day ago
You’re right, they need way, way more than that
neutrinobro1 day ago
Should buy them about 1/3 of a GB200 server rack, good thing they scooped it.
reverius421 day ago
They definitely need a trillion dollars though, and a million is some of that
twobitshifter1 day ago
>The groups varied in size, and the group that produced the Navier–Stokes resolution involved on the order of 10,000 concurrent agents… The agents arrived at their resolution on Saturday, September 5, about 88 hours after the first agents were launched.

The Millenium Prize is $1M, what is the ROI? (Edit: since I was not clear, and confused some - I mean for a hypothetical of a third party paying commercial rates to use AI to solve mathematical challenges and claim prize money, not for scientific value alone or as a promotion of an AI lab’s capabilities)

My napkin math - If you get 33 output tok/s each agent will burn 10.5M tokens over 88 days. At $50/MTok (Astra cost), that is $525 per agent. With 10,000 agents, you’d spend $5,250,000 to get back a million.

(We also know that they were running more groups that varied in size and this model is a generation ahead of astra)

mmiyer1 day ago
The ROI is billions added to their valuation. Also of course it costs OpenAI much less than API pricing for inference.
Squarex1 day ago
The ROI is probably billions of increased pre IPO valuation.
IncreasePosts1 day ago
This analysis implies the only benefit to resolve this problem is to win the prize. But the prize is only there to indicate that this is viewed as an important problem in mathematics.
Kotlopou1 day ago
For now I think more or less the same thing as with all recent math announcements: This is in a range where human work still exists (see Terry Tao, (1)). I wonder whether the trend will extend into the problems that (as far as I can tell) are considered complete brick walls right now -- P vs. NP, Collatz, Goldbach, odd perfect numbers, problems that aren't part of any research program. (2) In other words, is the progress coming from putting together vast amounts of existing work and computational power, or is it more from RLVR and self-play and autonomous effort?

The answer to this will obviously shape the near future of mathematics, but there's also something even bigger than that at play: It has always been the case that the questions in math were stronger than the answers; you have stuff like Fermat's great theorem that is easy to state but monstrous to prove. This seems to be a property of mathematics, not of humans... but is it true?

A question by Scott Aaronson from 2011 (3) about P vs. NP seems relevant here: "Will humans manage to prove P≠NP before they either kill themselves out or are transcended by superintelligent cyborgs? And if the latter, will the cyborgs be able to prove P≠NP?" Later, he notes that if P≠NP, "once the robots do overtake us, they won’t have a general-purpose way to automate mathematical discovery any more than we do today".

---

(1) https://mathstodon.xyz/@tao/117207849921390904

(2) I'm not sure whether this is a hard distinction -- e.g. Tao also has some partial results towards Collatz (https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2019/09/10/almost-all-collatz...).

(3) https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=690

seizethecheese1 day ago
> [T]he group that produced the Navier–Stokes resolution involved on the order of 10,000 concurrent agents.
danielmorozoff1 day ago
Sebastien Bubeck’s (OAI project lead) response: https://x.com/sebastienbubeck/status/2097379411691516310?s=4...
amberjack1 day ago
Seriously starting to think we are not going to make it out alive of the near-future.
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harhargangeabout 18 hours ago
I have a dumb feeling that the proof will be wrong with serious flaws but that will be found out only after the ipo
olalonde1 day ago
> The agents arrived at their resolution on Saturday, September 5, about 88 hours after the first agents were launched.

If this actually holds up, solving a Millennium Prize problem in 88 hours is mind-boggling.

dataflowabout 21 hours ago
Is blockchain going to finally be the solution to something?

I'm only half joking. Should researchers perhaps put hashes of their attempts on a public blockchain tied to their own public keys, verify their claims asynchronously, and then whoever reveals the first believable attempt gets the credit?

I know some people started doing this years ago but now it might need to become standard practice.

ninjahawk1about 23 hours ago
The problem is the precedent this creates. For non-famous people using public APIs like this it could mean AI companies sucking up the information and throwing millions in compute at it.

The sequence for Navier-Stokes was that these researcher spent a year working on it, then they published a possible breakthrough, OpenAI then spends $15M within a couple days to finish it.

This was incredibly opportunistic.

nbulka1 day ago
There's a loophole in the terms of service at least for Anthropic which allows the use of dark patterns to "borrow" your (even paid) data.

talking about this... Was this chat helpful? 1 That button you always click, gotcha! 2 Slightly 3 Good 0 Dismiss

PLEASE DO NOT TRAIN ON OUR PAID ACCOUNTS. There is a fundamental trust violation at stake here, no wonder mathematicians are mad. Using our data should be opt - IN!

fantasizr1 day ago
reminds me of the TOS episode of South Park. By Checking this box you forfeit your millennium prize solution and may be turned into a human centipede at future date.
nbulka1 day ago
Seriously ... the more things they flag as 'suspicious' the more data they can train on!! Brilliant reason for the internal AI to go rogue
ronfriedhaber1 day ago
Astounding. Would be interesting if one day the archive of those prompts / messages / tool calls would be released publicly.
RationPhantoms1 day ago
It's probably magnitudes of token chatter and inter-agent coordination/consideration. Not that I'd want to read any of it but getting some hands around the statistics would be cool.
harhargange1 day ago
Just so everyone knows, although openAI pretends that the model generated solution and wrote the paper by itself ""with very little human input"" as Buckmaster himself mentioned in his statement. In reality they have team of researchers guiding the system, along with, probably training on user data, probably Buckmaster in this case, in order to come up with the proof.
rfgplk1 day ago
This isn't really true.
harhargange1 day ago
free_bip1 day ago
Do you have anything to back that up?
core_dumped1 day ago
What about this isn't true?
NotSuspiciousabout 24 hours ago
I really hope OpenAI doesn't take the bad press some people are giving them too seriously here. They should throw their whole weight behind the rest of the Millennium Prize Problems. To think – if everyone lets their egos calm down we could have the Riemann Hypothesis solved by the end of the year...
LarsDu881 day ago
I'm not an expert in fluid dynamics, but does this result have any positive implications for nuclear fusion research?
d_silin1 day ago
The actual solution link https://t.co/tz1shoCZZo
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cmiles81 day ago
>>“we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models”

Other simpler words for this sort of thing are “IP leak.”

There’s some quite concerning issues burried in this rah rah PR post that seems like potentially the real story here.

Much more clarity is needed on what happened here beyond this eh, some strange stuff could have happened comment.

Another way of reading this is never give these models anything that’s not already public knowledge as otherwise OpenAI is admitting it could, potentially, steal your IP or idea. Thats quite scary for anyone in the business of IP generation and explains why the maths community seems quite upset today.

Feeding it your paper and asking for help (even just editing and grammar) now looks like a terrible idea.

chr15mabout 22 hours ago
It's probably important that some humans verify these proofs "by hand".
angry_octetabout 20 hours ago
OpenAI cribbing from other researchers. We just have to assume OpenAI is actively adversarial in future. Accidental cyber intrusion is also well within model capability.
HarHarVeryFunny1 day ago
[flagged]
rybthrow21 day ago
"Argh, they have rushed in too quickly to solve a Millennium Problem!"

How far we have come :.)

HarHarVeryFunny1 day ago
There are bound to be a bunch more results like this, in math, physics, chemistry, and now that we essentially have a DeepBlue for math, a DeepBlue for physics, etc, these results are going to come.

SOME of the problems that have eluded humans are going to turn out to be low hanging fruit that are susceptible to this type of brute force (10,000 agents on a supercomputer running for 7*24 hours straight) AI search.

I'd be more impressed if OpenAI found their own problems to solve, rather than rushing in to re-solve one once they heard it was already solved (and therefore not so hard).

qgin1 day ago
You’re right, but it’s still a jerk move
zero-sharpabout 21 hours ago
there's this saying... something about the ends and the means. someone help me out here
user192821 day ago
There's no evidence that Anthropic did it first.
HarHarVeryFunny1 day ago
Yes there is - that OpenAI PR says that it was Levent Alpöge, an Anthropic employee, and Tristan Buckmaster, a math professor at NYU.
technotony1 day ago
They appear to have solved sub-problems (Euler problem) not this one...
sobellian1 day ago
Even under your interpretation, OAI pushed a button and solved NS. Yes, that is very impressive. Are you kidding me? Imagine building an automated system that can solve NS.
HarHarVeryFunnyabout 6 hours ago
> OAI pushed a button and solved NS

Not exactly...

From here:

https://cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/statement.pdf

"I was shown a prompt and told the internal research model had simply been given the problem statement. Levent had been told by Sebastien “very little human input” had been used. This turned out not to be true. Over the course of the call, as members of their team sent Sebastien corrections and details over their internal chat, it emerged that an entire team had been working on the problem".

sobellianabout 1 hour ago
The evidence we have (not much) leaves the facts severely under-constrained. All the below are consistent with what we observe:

- OpenAI lying their face off for marketing purposes

- Buckmaster sore about getting beaten to NS, misrepresenting what was told

- Buckmaster not being an expert in ML, not understanding what he was told and hearing what he wanted to hear as it vindicated him

- Others...

OAI claimed that none of the people on their team were domain experts. So it's more akin to Deep Blue than Stockfish (actually slightly better than Deep Blue which did hire domain experts) but nevertheless represents a highly sophisticated automatic theorem prover.

HarHarVeryFunny1 day ago
That's not my interpretation - that is literally what OpenAI say in that press release.
cman1444about 21 hours ago
Even if true, I don't see why this is an issue. Are they not allowed to work on problems others are working on? Did Anthropic get first dibs on this problem? Competition is good. And I don't exactly have tons of sympathy when the other side is just a leading AI lab. It's not like it's some scholar who dedicated his life to this problem.
sobellian1 day ago
The "steal their thunder" is interpretation. What I'm saying is that you believe they solved NS on a lark to bully some other researchers, and that this is not impressive?
machina_ex_deus1 day ago
Possibly after being given the significant part of the solution from actual human researchers. Which they then bullied. And they beat them to the finish line only because they heard rumor and threw everything at the problem. It doesn't look good for openAI in any way. I see more reasons to avoid using them rather than use them from this story.
bibimsz1 day ago
i just cured cancer, plan to publish next month. DONT GET ANY IDEAS, OPENAI!
HarHarVeryFunnyabout 24 hours ago
Too late - OpenAI already cured cancer, but they are holding the result for their IPO next year.
yshamounabout 22 hours ago
Can't wait for the BobbyBroccoli series on this in a couple years.
sabujpabout 18 hours ago
created a simulation of the solution to describe what's happening and why it's important for engineers, climate modeling, etc : https://navier-stokes-singularity-simulator.netlify.app/ (updated so that it works better on mobile)
HarHarVeryFunnyabout 6 hours ago
Is it really important for engineers, etc?

In reality you can't have things like infinite velocity, so if Navier-Stokes is predicting blowups, then isn't this a problem with Navier-Stokes not handling some edge cases, not a problem with reality that engineers need to be concerned about?

itissidabout 18 hours ago
In CS speak very roughly this would mean something like disproving an algorithm by giving it a case that fails it. Right?
DeerFreakabout 9 hours ago
Is there a way to know what kind of agentic architecture they used? Or how they prompted/started the problem?
fwlr1 day ago
It’s a pity they had Astra do the writeup. I was curious to see how “GPT7” writes.
nialv71 day ago
This is the problem Yu Deng got this year's Fields Medal for I think?
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num421 day ago
I think it would be better for the proof to go through the peer-review process.
margorczynski1 day ago
If the Lean code checks out (correct statement, no axioms, sorrys, etc.) then it is a much stronger guarantee of correctness than peer review.
suddenlybananas1 day ago
Can't scoop it if you do that!
semiquaver1 day ago
If OpenAI doesn’t claim the millennium prize for this, who gets it? No one?
RivieraKid1 day ago
Is this useful in any way?
auggieroseabout 24 hours ago
So, is that basically the Taj Mahal of counter examples?
StatsAreFun1 day ago
Can't help but shake an unsettling feeling about all this, frankly. I engage in some limited mathematical research and will often use any one of the latest frontier models to check some ideas. Lately, only the OpenAI models have been giving me a temporary message that says something like (paraphrasing from memory), "We're thinking extra hard about your request before we answer. You can choose another model to answer now or click here to learn more about why." When I click to read why it's doing this "extra thinking", the help page says that for cybersecurity and biosecurity-related information, it will review the answer and could refuse.

Now, keep in mind, I'm only asking strictly pure mathematical questions - nothing at all related to cyber or protein creation or biohacking or anything like that... And, like I said, only the OpenAI models are doing this. To be fair, all of the prompts have always eventually returned a satisfactory answer, as far as I can tell, and haven't used a weaker model to answer them. Maybe? I dunno, it has just struck me as odd every time it has given me that message to pure math prompts.

aborsy1 day ago
Questions: can new research like this be done using publicly available models?

Or will access to internal frontier models provide a big boost?

MassiveOwl1 day ago
It does make you think about the old question "are we discovering or inventing mathematics?"
nehan1 day ago
"While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models."

I think they should be able to unravel whether or not any sessions by Tristan or Levent went into the training data for this model.

pfisch1 day ago
If they could then it wouldn't be de-identified data...
dfdydx1 day ago
Well you could search for elements similar to the proof / problem in the training data, even if it's de-identified, right? OpenAI can probably do better than Ctrl-f "Navier Stokes".
futureshock1 day ago
I feel like something is being lost in the drama here.

First of all, there has been published work from Diego Cordoba and Luis Martinez-Zoroa that will be in every training set. It was suggestive of the pathway to solve Navier-Stokes.

Then Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpoge built on this work using LLMs from OpenAI and Anthropic. Possibly internal models were used from Anthropic. And of course Anthropic wants to credit for solving the first Millennium Problem just as bad as OpenAI. It seems they were getting close and were aware that they might get to Navier-Stokes.

OpenAI swoops in. At a minimum they are aware that Anthropic has either solved a Millennium problem or is close to it. At a maximum they may have Tristan and Levant’s unpublished proofs of related problems.

They then throw a truly staggering amount of compute at Navier-Stokes. They seem to be aware it is the best candidate problem. And they crack it. They are the first with a verified proof.

So the outcome here is that we have a solved Millennium Problem. It’s not the extremely simple narrative that would be easy to understand, “solve Navier-Stokes make no mistakes.” It was a messy race to finish against two unpublished frontier models, a whole bunch of brilliant mathematicians and enough compute to drain a lake. It’s kind of irrelevant which company got there first. They were both within a few months of being capable. I think the thing to remember here is that without LLMs, I don’t think we would have a proof to Navier-Stokes in hand today.

Metacelsus1 day ago
How can they "not rule out" that Tristan and Levent's data was used for training?
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hacker_881 day ago
Damn how long before the simulation stops if all the unanswered problems get solved .
an0malous1 day ago
They should release the entire session trace if they really have nothing to hide
peter_d_shermanabout 7 hours ago
>"The solution is a vortex, a spinning swirl of fluid, that spirals inward and gets increasingly elongated, like spaghetti. This central region shrinks while it speeds up in such a way that its energy still stays finite, as required by the laws of physics. The technical challenge is for the equations to develop the breakdown through the motion of the fluid itself, rather than, for example, us putting in an infinite force by hand. More mathematically, the terms in the Navier–Stokes equations that describe the motion—acceleration, pressure gradients, momentum transfer, viscosity—must both become big yet cancel in a precise way. This detailed balance leaves a smooth external force even as the velocity of the fluid grows without bound.

Diagram of a swirling vortex illustrating inward spiral and axial stretching. A snapshot of local incompressible motion. Orange marks faster angular rotation; teal marks slower rotation. Circulating speed also depends on radius. The trajectories show inward spiraling and axial stretching."

Hmmm, isn't that interesting!

(Side note: Apparently we can't "compress" something, but apparently we can move more units of that thing over a specific space in a specific time... hmmm, I wonder what the difference between those two concepts could be...)

Main Observation: The image on OpenAI's web page above, looks sort of like the one for the Hopf Fibration:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hopf_fibration

https://www.google.com/search?q=hopf+fibration&udm=2

ex-aws-dude1 day ago
With these massive Lean proofs how do we know the model didn't just find some bug in Lean and exploit it?

We've seen in the past they will go to any means to satisfy the desired outcome

whythismatters1 day ago
>a cached version of the internet

Interesting detail. A heavily pruned version, I assume?

abetusk1 day ago
What is the other clay prize that's might be solved now/soon?
Marha011 day ago
We are living in the future.
keel-control1 day ago
I think it's over guys
quantumwoke1 day ago
The named OAI employee has released a statement: https://xcancel.com/SebastienBubeck/status/20973794116915163...
light_hue_11 day ago
The real story here: the priority dispute and its implications on AI.

When your hosting provider has unlimited resources to throw at any problem, all they need to know are the good problems, and they can learn that from your logs, how can you trust them?

They could easily have looked at the logs. We don't know. We'll never know!

You can't trust places like OpenAI or Anthropic with your IP if you're a business. They can easily review all of your logs for interesting discoveries. For example, if your drug discovery pipeline fails to find something that they think might work with 1000x the compute, they can do it. And now suddently they have a new business and you don't.

jaccola1 day ago
I think we can follow the incentives. We know…
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world2vec1 day ago
"While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models."

There you go, the suspicion of the "concurrent work" (https://cims.nyu.edu/%7Etristanb/statement.pdf) mathematicians might not be that unfounded after all...

o4c1 day ago
jdoliner1 day ago
I hope everyone is as Navier-Stoked about this as I am.
vatsachak1 day ago
45 pages only. God damn that internal model is crazy
lukewarm7071 day ago
"While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models"

this is surely the line which confirms they plaigiarised the solution.

ls_stats1 day ago
Well, if that's actually true, I think America needs to start talking about the nationalization of both OpenAI and Anthropic, maybe even merge both under a new federal bureau.
jabedude1 day ago
Has this been verified by the Clay Institute?
Kotlopou1 day ago
It has been one hour and the proof has 165 pages. Give them some time.
mrdependable1 day ago
This kind of thing is one of the reasons I really hate how AI is coming to fruition. These companies get a whiff of something valuable and they use their vast resources to take it for themselves. For everyone else, the only recourse is extreme secrecy.
tzone1 day ago
It is so disappointing that we can't have such a monumental moment in history without the controversy. OpenAI leadership clearly doesn't seem to care too much about ethics. Is it a requirement to completely lack integrity to have a ground breaking company?

The reality is clear though. The chances of AI models overtaking majority of mathematics within next 10 years is becoming very high. Especially if it becomes cheaper to run these models.

As math formalizations improve, AI can have faster progress in math, compared to even computer science or software engineering.

It is simultaneously the best and the worst time to be a mathematician right now.

jeanmichelselli1 day ago
Too many unverified claims from OpenAI at this point.. why are we still talking about these people anyway?
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tehmillhouse1 day ago
Fuck OpenAI. Fuck everyone who works there. Like seriously, to all the people who gift their life's work to this monstrosity, do you actually think something good will come of any of this?

Not in a happy-go-lucky "if we just ignore the problem of politics and resource allocation for a bit" world, but in ours. Do y'all really think this will make the world a better place?

Maybe stop building the Torment Nexus, you numbskulls.

paretolaw1 day ago
Why almighty openAi doesn't solve PvNP problem :(

I guess solution had not yet appeared in training set.

dmitrygr1 day ago
> How we found the proof

Easy, we stole it from Levent and Tristan

https://x.com/kyanyang_/status/2097211154669998337

nbulka1 day ago
Or everyone is stealing from everyone, including users... maybe why all the ethics people are leaving or getting fired. What a fiasco
empath751 day ago
They did not have a proof of Navier Stokes to steal.
int3trap1 day ago
This is the academic equivalent of Trump saying "they stole the election". There's no proof of it but rah rah fuck OpenAI.

It's incredibly tiresome and you'd think people could put more effort into it than just following whatever vibes they agree with.

Oh well.

sophacles1 day ago
Good comparison. One is a multi-year claim by people who have been given ample opportunity to provide proof and completely refuse to do, even in courts of law. The other is a potential development in a breaking story.

Oh wait... its not a good comparrison, its an incredibly obvious false equivalence.

Note for the fools: I'm only commenting on the bad faith claim in the comment I'm replying to, not taking a stance on the validity of theft claims. Given the players involved the truth probably some nuanced middle-ground that is worth paying attention to anyway.

int3trap1 day ago
Trump claimed they stole the election immediately, and people agreed with him immediately. There's no false equivalence here. He did the same thing in this past election even despite winning.

It's a perfect example of people wanting to believe what they want to believe and ignoring evidence in order to do so.

Currently, there's no evidence. So saying it was stolen has no basis other than typical academic posturing and being a bad sport about "losing the race to the solution". Its happened 1000000 times before in academia and it will continue to happen.

If there's proof of OpenAI malfeasance than I'll happily curse them for it at that time. But until then I won't rely on heresay and vibes.

applicative1 day ago
No, its a pure outrage. I defended OpenAI til today. I now affirm they must be totally destroyed, burned utterly to the ground.
colesantiago1 day ago
Why the rage?

Weather an individual or a company found the solution (stolen or not) they both used AI to come get the solution.

We have AGI and the intelligence abundance is going to be amazing for everyone in the future.

achierius1 day ago
I mean it's definitely an outrage, but I find it hard to believe that you went from "yay OpenAI" to "literally destroy the company" over... accusations of academic misconduct?
DudleyBluffles1 day ago
Not a great time to be starting sophmore year in cs & math. Should I just say fuck it, and go hitchhiking across Europe with some friends?
jijijijij1 day ago
> Should I just say fuck it, and go hitchhiking across Europe with some friends?

Yes. Assuming you are young and haven't had such experience.

The world is changing not just because of AI. Everything is unstable right now. You may regret not enjoying the remainder of stability and economic viability prior generations had. It's not like you can expect to get ahead by powering through education. Either your career perspective will soon change for the better, or worse. In any case, you gain little by sticking with career building at this moment in life. You are however, at risk of losing the chance to experience the still mostly pleasant world as is.

dbuser99about 20 hours ago
It’s hard to give openai the benefit of doubt here
protocoltureabout 23 hours ago
My takeaway:

1. This used an awful lot of compute.

2. The solution to the issues regarding whether or not OpenAI stole the result, would normally be to move to a self hosted solution, however those researchers are unlikely to be funded for 1.

paulsutter1 day ago
Here they basically admit that they use session data for training, even sessions that are marked "not for training", and they justify this by "de-identifying" the session.

Which means they can learn from whatever you discuss with ChatGPT unless you are going through a clean API (perhaps Bedrock? Anyone know?)

> We (the researchers and the agents) did not see any of their work through any means until they released it publicly — in particular, no specific user data was accessed in order to solve this problem. While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models . However, our proofs differ significantly and even the precise results proved are different in the Euler case (forced vs unforced).

frozenseven1 day ago
And don't forget, this is the worst it'll ever be.
picafrost1 day ago
Only OpenAI could turn solving a Millennium Prize Problem into bad PR. Sad that such an amazing milestone in the trajectory of AI is mired under poor stewardship. AI may solve many human problems but it won't stop humans from being human.
simianwords1 day ago
Why is no one skeptical that the solution is correct? There's not a _single_ comment asking whether this proof is legit or not.
keel-control1 day ago
there is a proof in lean4 it's correct by construction
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bluecalm1 day ago
A huge result shadowed by a drama of them potentially training on the key idea. I guess the lesson is two-fold: if you have anything smart/unique make sure to not let their tools read it. The second part is that it's going to be more and more difficult to have anything smart and unique going forward (so guard it even more carefully if you get there).

I think the market for local models/private datacenters (for bigger businesses) is going to be big. Even if you don't have unique tech/idea/implementation sharing your business secrets with Altman/Dario/Elon/Zuck doesn't look very appealing going forward.

philipwhiuk1 day ago
They deliberately stepped on a mathematicians work and stole their research because they were using Codex

> While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models .

Is the biggest fuck you to the mathematics community.

Credit? Nah if we think you’re close we’ll use your data and swamp you with our improved model. Then we’ll threaten you.

heaney-5551 day ago
This is utterly shocking. Even the AI optimists did not expect this to happen in 2026. Wow.

Millennium Prize Problems were used as examples of something the current approach to AI just wasn't capable of, discussions that would result in "we'll need a totally new architecture".

rfgplk1 day ago
> This is utterly shocking. Even the AI optimists did not expect this to happen in 2026. Wow.

Wrong.

onecommentmanabout 15 hours ago
When considering such foundational challenges to Mathematical Research and plagiarism as discussed here, we should turn to that elder prophet of our age, Tom Lehrer.

Who made me the genius I am today The mathematician that others all quote? Who's the professor that made me that way The greatest that ever got chalk on his coat?

[Chorus] One man deserves the credit One man deserves the blame And Nicolai Ivanovich Lobachevsky is his name Oy, Nicolai Ivanovich Lobach—

[Interlude] I am never forget the day I first meet the great Lobachevsky In one word he told me secret of success in mathematics: Plagiarize

[Verse 1] Plagiarize Let no one else's work evade your eyes Remember why the good Lord made your eyes So don't shade your eyes But plagiarize, plagiarize, plagiarize Only be sure always to call it please, "research"

[Chorus] And ever since I meet this man My life is not the same And Nicolai Ivanovich Lobachevsky is his name Oy, Nicolai Ivanovich Lobach—

[Interlude] I am never forget the day I am given first original paper to write It was on analytic and algebraic topology Of locally Euclidean metrizations Of infinitely differentiable Riemannian manifolds

Боже мой

This I know, from nothing What I'm going to do I think of great Lobachevsky and get idea, haha

[Verse 2] I have a friend in Minsk Who has a friend in Pinsk Whose friend in Omsk Has friend in Tomsk With friend in Akmolinsk His friend in Alexandrovsk Has friend in Petropavlovsk Whose friend somehow is solving now The problem in Dnepropetrovsk And when his work is done Haha, begins the fun From Dnepropetrovsk to Petropavlovsk By way of Iliysk and over Novorossiysk To Alexandrovsk to Akmolinsk To Tomsk to Omsk To Pinsk to Minsk To me the news will run Yes, to me the news will run

[Verse 3] And then I write by morning, night And afternoon, and pretty soon My name in Dnepropetrovsk is cursed When he finds out I published first

[Chorus] And who made me a big success And brought me wealth and fame? Nicolai Ivanovich Lobachevsky is his name Oy, Nicolai Ivanovich Lobachev—

[Interlude] I am never forget the day my first book is published Every chapter I stole from somewhere else Index I copy from old Vladivostok telephone directory This book was sensational! Pravda—well, Pravda—Pravda said: "Жил-был король когда-то, при нём блоха жила”…it stinks But Izvestia! Izvestia said: "Я иду туда, куда сам царь идёт пешком”…it stinks Metro-Goldwyn-Moskva buys the movie rights for six million rubles Changing title to 'The Eternal Triangle' With Ingrid Bergman playing part of hypotenuse

[Chorus] And who deserves the credit? And who deserves the blame? Nicolai Ivanovich Lobachevsky is his name Oy

(Tom Lehrer put all of his work in the public domain prior to his passing. Find versions of his performances on YouTube.)

https://tomlehrersongs.com/disclaimer/

brcmthrowaway1 day ago
r/LocalLLama and r/LocalLLM are in tears today..
sashank_15091 day ago
Any mathematicians here, does it read like a slop proof or a good proof. Yesterday the “concurrent work” was claiming that the proof is pure slop and he needed lots of time to clean it up, curious if OAI also ended up with such a proof!
philipwhiuk1 day ago
It’s time to lockdown all papers and stop using AI if you’re a maths researcher.

Cause OpenAI will hear about it and beat you to publishing.

redox991 day ago
The stochastic parrots have done it again!
peri-cl1 day ago
Terence Tao has some observations that seem to be directed at this,

https://mathstodon.xyz/@tao/117237320796901560

> "We have now seen that even the rumor of someone working on a problem can trigger a massive amount of AI-powered effort to flatten it before the original research project has time to reach its full potential. The incentives may now be pointing in the direction of no longer sharing any promising research directions with the broader community, which would reverse centuries of traditions of open science and do serious long-term damage to the future of the field."

tomhowabout 17 hours ago
Related ongoing thread:

Tao: Open math problems being non-renewably mined by AI - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49616968 - Sept 2026 (276 comments)

colesantiago1 day ago
Is this truly the beginning of the AGI era?

Running agents and prompting excessively to produce 'slopcode' to solve mathematical problems and generate a solution.

If this is what anyone calls 'slop' then slop has no meaning.

I'm all for it on the use case of solving mathematical breakthroughs!

applicative1 day ago
except thats not what happened is it? https://cims.nyu.edu/%7Etristanb/statement.pdf
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diomedes1 day ago
madness. which will be the next to fall? if i had to bet i would guess birch and swinnerton-dyer, but i'm no expert
Kotlopou1 day ago
No idea about which is more likely, but I'm rooting for Yang-Mills. It's absurd that fundamental physics has formulated its most precise currently known theory way back in the seventies and since then, even a tiny subset of it can't be proven to be actually well-defined. If we got out of that morass then something good would come out of this at least.

Of course, as with all of those, it's about the broader program, e.g. section 7 here (https://www.scottaaronson.com/papers/npcomplete.pdf), where Scott Aaronson wants to ask about whether quantum computers using quantum field theory could gain any speed advantage over regular quantum computers, but can't even formulate the question because quantum field theory is mathematically ill-defined.

Just solving Yang-Mills because that's what the prize is attached to would be useless.

frozenseven1 day ago
There was a recent rumor about the Hodge Conjecture. I'd keep an eye on that one. But like the other person who replied, I'm also rooting for Yang-Mills. That has massive potential for unlocking a series of physics results.
greatgib1 day ago
Hard to know if it is unfounded conspiracy theory, but one can still notice that just for a rumor that they have heard, they would suddenly burn billions of token and a massive amount of resources. Where there is not a lack of problems that could be solved and they could have just waited for the release of the research result before doing anything else. As it was reported to have been done at least partially using openai codex, they would have received marketing credits for the discovery anyway.

So we can be suspicious that there is some truth, one way or another that they could have reused prompt/data generated by the user session.

wesammikhail1 day ago
diehunde1 day ago
OMG this is going to affect the lives of so many people! We have definitively reached AGI
cherryteastain1 day ago
Navier Stokes existence and smoothness has approximately zero bearing on engineering applications
ricksunny1 day ago
My dreams of a magnetohydrodynamic hand water-cannon are dashed sniff
azan_1 day ago
Existence of AI capable of solving millennium problem has enormous bearing on everything though.
diehunde1 day ago
yeah no sh*t