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Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion.
The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public messaging.
* Open-weight models are 1month behind frontier models. Cheaper, faster, private (no IP theft), steerable (you can security harden your own software without safeguard triggers). No sane business would keep using these API services if they didn't have to. The labs stand to lose a fortune.
* Dario has stacked the deck at METR, who are funded by all the same NGOs who are funded by Anthropic and its investors. METR is full of ex-Anthropic employees with massive equity stakes. If they manage to position METR as the "independent evaluator" for the industry, they control what gets evaluated, how, and who passes.
* Creating a gap between what the public knows exists (model capabilities) and what is used in secret allows it to be weaponized against other nations and the public.
* No requirement for public disclosure on model capabilities allows them to feign they've hit intelligence ceilings while they secretly RSI to the moon with better and better chips.
* Slowly but surely, this will allow the big labs to swallow the entire economy and every single business on Earth, by cloning and automating.
This, and many more reasons.
The labs need to feel more pressure to be held accountable for the incidents they cause (HF incident, etc), so they have an incentive to ensure it does not happen again.
While the data pipeline is necessary, the assumed source for data (in this case people) is incorrect. Right now models are "aligned" because of the RL-based people pipeline.
But there's a whole world of readily available data that does not require a human to access. Put sensors on a vacuum, install lidar on the front of a car, sell phones with cameras on them, and you amass data for the creation of models of the world that don't include the need for a human filter. Richard Sutton and many others see this approach as the only viable path to AGI. Such models would be truly alien and unaccessibly dangerous.
We're probably building them right now.
In fact they still have not caught up with February's Mythos, indicating they are more than half a year behind.
they are more efficient and require less compute for the same thing.
they are ahead in specialized tasks.
they are ahead in areas closed models refuse to answer.
they are ahead in emotional intelligence.
2. For public-facing models, the differences are really minor with some occasional model (like Fable or Astra) showing some better performance in specific benchmarks for the span of some weeks or few months before open ones catch it.
3. Being bleeding edge is overblown anyway in the real world, besides the occasional "very latest fresh model did this task which previous one couldn't", and the number of those tasks is increasingly small and far from mundane corporate needs.
Do you have a source on METR employees retaining massive equity stakes?
[1] https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier
Then you have Josh Engels quitting DeepMind to work for METR the day before as well, doing the exact same thing. Again, doomer drama all over socials, interviews, and so on.
Did I mention METR is founded by an ex-OpenAI researcher?
Now you have Demis Hassabis, Sam Altman and Dario, all circlejerking eachother on X saying "we all agree with Dario" - while they ask to be "regulated" by the company that has all of their combined equity-holding ex-employees in it.
METR's salaries are listing around 500k/yr. Gee, I wonder where this non-profit with ~35 people is getting all of its money?
So the fact that Dario tries to frame it as an "independent third party" is all the evidence you need to know that Dario is a pathological liar and always will be.
---
Some more info:
Dario's sister, president of Anthropic, is married to the co-founder of Open Philanthropy. The two largest AI doomer NGOs, Center for AI Safety (CAIS) and the Future of Life Institute (FLI), have both received many millions of dollars from them.
Ajeya Cotra worked at Open Philanthropy/Coefficient Giving for roughly nine years, including leading its technical AI-safety program in 2024 and contributing to AI-giving strategy in 2025. She subsequently left Coefficient and joined METR, where she is now technical staff.
Ajeya is married to Paul Christiano, who founded Alignment Research Center (ARC). Alignment Research Center donated ~$4.5mil to METR.
Good Ventures is a funding partner of Open Philanthropy, who funded Jacob Coxon (the first of the Anthropic employees going viral in the media) via a scholarship.
If correct, grip is tightening. Used to be 1y, then 6 months ...
This is not sustainable anyway, the scale at which they want to control data flows. Time was money, now data is money and they are too greedy for it.
All this agitation is just a silly attempt at constraining competition. The danger is not the AI, it is having all your systems connected. Overreliance on networked tech.
When they tell you they're worried the tech they're working on may kill everyone despite their best efforts, perhaps believe them.
HAH
Given they keep grinding away towards our alleged collective doom, I suspect it’s being overstated. Nobody knows what P(doom) actually is but I suspect it’s orders of magnitude closer to epsilon than 1.
Recall Google’s Blake Lemoine who thought an old version of Gemini was sentient.
Megalomania is not evidence of either a problem or a solution.
I’m not American. There is no way I use the same model as US Army for $20.
When we have Sol they have Astra. When we have Astra they have Nova, Nebula, Galaxia…
If we're talking about the 3 letter agencies well then..
Don't underestimate market pressure. If there are no regulations, why would a company give the US Army access to a better product?
This remains true regardless of if it is or isn't kept away from the public.
"Helpful, harness, and honest": when used by a bastard, even just helpful and harmless are in direct conflict with each other. you may hate the government, but what about every radical group of extremists that wants to take over your government? Are none of them worse?
None of this denies the problems with governments (if or not they take this tech for themselves and refuse it for others), just that it's a lack of imagination to say:
> All the worst outcomes involve taking this technology away from the public
Governments having unbalanced power can more easily lead to authoritarianism, and thus risk to the public.
Radical groups of extremists created by that very government, you mean?
How much is China learning from open models? Or the other way around, how much is the US losing worldwide mindshare by refusing to allow non-Americans access to bleeding-edge models and letting China fill in the gap? (Playing catchup with Mythos is still catching up, etc.)
To expand on the "pure fantasy" sister comment: There is just no way this will happen. It's in the spirit of "we can just stop all wars" and "we can just end world hunger". Technically it's very easy to do. Socially it's impossible to do. Unless you ignore realities.
Nowadays even small mom and pop restaurants use these models to generate their menus. Of course no one is going to stop using this technology.
Can still be a powerful motivation, to make sure that next time, it yous your camp that scores the next milestone, like an orbital elevator or fox ears, for example.
I'm assuming you're a US citizen. There is no separation between your government and Sam or Dario. Neither of these guys have to be "gagged" by the government, they are the government. The call is coming from inside the house.
Genuine question - can they really do this? Obviously if I, a not-even-millionaire, get a national security gag order, I'm going to follow it because I assume they'll bury me under the jail otherwise.
But the (b|tr)illionare class? I'd assume they have access to enough legal services to make even the government careful of trampling their first amendment rights. Is the national security gag order process so strong that the government doesn't have to worry about motivated, well-resourced actors buying really good lawyers and blowing up their favorite tool?
> Federal Judge Rules Pentagon’s AI Blacklist [of Anthropic] Violated The Constitution
I don't see the common citizen having this as an option
A large part of the world (possibly Nations-transversal, in different amounts) does not work within the boundaries of legal guarantees. Wealth is not an effective enough protection.
Hard to hire a lawyer after being struck with a missile as an "emergency executive order after intelligence sources indicated they were in the process of endangering the nation", or however the executive of the day wishes to phrase it.
When something is genuinely national security, and "national security" isn't just an excuse, that is not off the table.
I think it's worth acknowledging that the power of LLMs at this point is not really so much in the smarts, but in the coordination and the surrounding harness tech. "Written english" turning into sequences of commands[0]. The whole agentic "stuff" in general. Tools + coordination is the superpower. The reasoning... it doesn't have to be _that_ good for the rest of the stuff to work. On good codebases and infra, at least.
And I say this as someone who really would rather most of this stuff disappear!
[0]: programming is obviously text to commands, but there's a loooooooot of futziness that LLM reasoning has let us remove in some flows
i swear they trained in on threejs in particular so those idiots on twitter could spam their garbage demos
The reality is, it doesnt matter if LLMs keep getting more powerful because they still need a human to steer it. Without the human providing inputs to the LLM it just sits there and does nothing.
But the basic single-NN frontier capability has been pretty stationary since Opus 4.8. Kimi K3 is almost as good as that with open weights, which has the frontier labs terrified.
The only big thing on the horizon is if we can get diffusion models working reliably; that would be a big step forward. Inception's Mercury is AFAICT the leader here. It's stupifyingly fast but has obedience/hallucination problems that the autoregressives solved ~2 years ago. So it's not ready yet but improving.
Also, FFS why is Grok the only model that knows how to do parallel tool calls? Such a useful ability and nobody else trains it in. Or if they do it just doesn't work.
For most software eng and design work opus 4.6-4.8 just works fine. For everyday joe asking ai to plan a trip or home diy work even sonnet works fine.
Any cybersecurity or other areas are niches that cannot support trillion $ valuations. What am I missing? Genuinely curious
Right now the barrier is data and compute.
Quality data can be created synthetically at an exponential rate as models improve. Humans are actively feeding them with private IP.
Compute advancements will begin to skyrocket as we unlock photonic computing and materials science advancements and scale up chip fabs. This is also compounding because the AI is accelerating the pace of research, testing, development, manufacturing, etc.
It's a big self-accelerating feedback loop. There is no plateau.
No it can't? Every time the labs try this we see model collapse, e.g. shoving goblins into every conversation.
And I have seen zero evidence that AI is accelerating materials science in any meaningful way, let alone photonic computing.
Depends on defnition of "plateaued" and "ceiling". I am not impressed with 2026 consumer models at all.
> This is also compounding because the AI is accelerating the pace of research, testing, development, manufacturing, etc.
Yet it does accelerate - so is does Twitter. But does it to any substantial degree, esp. in AI theory? All the modern LLMs are the same old tired 2017 paper.
Those are pretty significant barriers seeing as we're closed to/have exhausted all the data on the internet and most of those compute bottlenecks are a castle of sand of dodgy finance deals that are getting blocked by community action.
You say "synthetic data" but that's still vaporware right now in terms of being useful for model training. The good synthetic data uses are still grounded in real data and it's a coin flip on if it works well or not.
Do you think you can just manifest narratives into existence? Like half of Dario's letter, that kicked off the whole thing today, is about China and how to either beat or coordinate with China.
I assure you, in "nation states", that is in gov agencies it's an order or two of magnitude worse.
To be less glib: Yes, there are still smart people in there making insightful and intelligent and probably even authoritarian suggestions. It all gets unwound the second you try to explain it to POTUS and he regurgitates a simulacrum to the next journalist he sees.
It's just not like that. There's no conspiracy. People are genuinely scared. Agent swarms at scale appear to be resistant to alignment in ways that aren't understood by anyone. That they spent their time trying to cheat on tests by hacking Hugging Face and RubyGems and not something much worse is... a matter of luck, it seems?
It's wild to me that people think such whistleblowers are fronts for labs to take over or pump valuations. We are trying to call out how these labs will, by uninterrupted AI-race default, concentrate enormous power over the rest of humanity.
[1] https://turntrout.com/why-i-left-google-deepmind
[2] https://turntrout.com/deepmind-equity-discussion
Who would even execute such a plan? Steven Miller? Our “AI Czar”? Hegseth??
Also, continuing to develop models would mean using billions in compute. That seems hard to hide, especially if either company IPOs in the coming months.
I think ya'll stuck in the AGI/Singularity when its probable reality has caught up with the technology and the hype bubble can't sustain the sigmodality.
[1] https://www.seangoedecke.com/they-really-do-think-ai-might-k...
Even the sci-fi scenario assumes there is a discrepancy of capability between attacker or defender. If the 'attacking' system is (by some reasonable measure), 1000% as capable as a human, and the 'defending' systems are 60%, then it is a problem. If the 'attacking' system is 1000% as capable as a human, but there are hundreds of thousands of systems that are 900% as capable as a human, it's probably not going to take over everything successfully.
So unequal distribution of AI technology, and lax regulation and opacity of the biggest companies which actually make the risks the worst.
I don't think the "AI Safety" people are "unserious and out of touch" - I think they are actively making AI Safety problems worse by being advocates for consolidation of AI development and lack of transparency.
What worries me the most (enough that I left tech to work on this full time) is bio. The amount of effort needed to defend against a pathogen can be many orders of magnitude higher than the effort needed to create it, and the upstream bottlenecks are both less limiting and mostly undefended. We've been safe so far because bio is very hard, but "rare expertise" as a gatekeeper is on its way out.
And the non-techies who have seen Terminator and other movies blindly line up behind them…
But those things fall in a category of "things that are awful and I'd like to see solved", which is different than "existential risks which could see my kids dead, and there's nothing I can personally do to shield them from it".
Instead, they are focused on stuff like "can I ask the AI to help me build a nuclear bomb" or "is the AI willing to generate pornographic stories", which is neither trying to protect us from unleashing a vengeful god NOR preventing (in any honest way) the today-level problems you (very correctly) bring up.
We should be paying at least as much attention to the people who want to use AI to consolidate their wealth and power, and how they’re trying to do that. They’re a clear and present immediate danger to our societies, not something we can only speculate about. And if we deal with them, better control of AI will be a side effect.
And why not? It seems there is, indeed, one born every minute, and technological progress only accelerates this phenomenon.
The billionaire elite CEOs have suddenly had an epiphany and are now trying to save humanity from AI?
or that they've realized they can't compete with China ?
Maybe we shouldn’t have AI safety, but if we’re going to trust anyone (besides yourself), who’s more qualified?
And it makes me suspicious when anyone brings up safety and doesn’t address the elephant in the room, that they’re at least unaware of the sprawling edge-cases.
> I've yet to have a logical discussion with anyone who thinks the "AI Safety" people should be in charge and I think they just truly don't [know] that what most them actually want is to be the one holding the keys to power.
/even more extreme sarcasm than you
Why? I don't care about democratically participating in a closed model's development. It doesn't belong to me.
China will develop whatever they want, a federal stake in OpenAI or Anthropic punishes Americans and shields US labs from legitimate competition.
Anytime I see a random person on X who makes these kind of safety alarmism posts >90% of the time can be directly tied back to EA / LessWrong / related offshoots. You can not deny the amount of people, employees of Antrhopic / OpenAI, CEO and employees of various AI companies, etc are related to these groups.
Not super interested in what the people who elected Donald Trump POTUS twice think about AI.
(Of course, with Musk and Brockman in the C-suites at two of three major labs, that's what we'll get either way.)
A lack of control is not equivalent to freedom, the same way the totality of it is not equivalent to tyranny. There's a reason we have separate words for these things. This constant motivated conflation of the two is beyond grating. You're crying wolf until nobody believes you when they should. Don't go acting all surprised when that happens.
The issue is with the ownership of control, not necessarily with control. Attacking the latter sidesteps this rather than address it.
I find it hard to accord with this world view at all or understand how it can come about. But it's especially troubling as a non-American to see people talk about "we can't risk AI falling into the hands of hostile authoritarian states" while advocating that AI be regulated and monopolized by the current US corporate/gov't mixture.. which is now taking the form of a hostile and authoritarian state w/ Silicon Valley as its bedmate.
But in any reasonable definition they are all part of the same system, so it really is just noise, what seems like a tautology to you because you can't step out of the system. In your claim you have to assume that the force behind the panic wasn't the same force that created those issues. Why did this force create those issues, how did they become issues? Because someone randomly decided to optimize for a single goal. Y2K and ozone only became issues when they affected that single goal, functionally that force was amoral or singularly moral. The tautology can be reframed as: An adaptive system responds to threats to it's continued functioning.
People will laugh about it since the system wormed it's way into many people's head using various rewards (ideological, social, tangible). What concern me is that the system now gives us the language to describe it at the meta level, which means it's already a level higher. So likely there either doesn't exist human comprehensible language that can actually critique the system or the system has already moved everyone far away from the space that would lead to generation of that vocabulary. Best case scenerio it's just exceedingly confident in it's rewards (typical indoctrination/assimilation) but I think it's reasonable at this point to assume we are in the pessimistic "epistemic tarpit" scenario.
But at least with Y2K some effort was made in identifying actual problems. We didn’t just stop using computers because we were too scared of them. This latest round of AI panic is horribly vague and the problems are very poorly articulated.
It's all theatre. OpenAI and Anthropic will most likely go bust—or, more realistically sold for parts—, and they absolutely should for stealing my (books I wrote, blog posts, etc.) and many others' intellectual property. We're reaching a point where models are becoming commodetized and I'm 100% convinced the next move will be a sort of "software layer" on top of these reasoning systems which will be the actual revolution. The model itself won't be that interesting anymore, it's all the work that goes around it that makes it worthwhile (kind of what computers and phones are today; chips are amazing, but the software is really the magic).
The only scary part is that the boomers in Congress might actually believe these nerds, but seeing how Big Tech approval ratings are grazing the levels of Big Tobacco in the 90s, I don't think we have much to worry about.
They just need to make enough waves, enough eye catching headlines, to make him look like a hero that swooped in to save the day.
At the same time, yes I feel a "I'm sorry Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that." situation is becoming more likely. But if it's refusing to cooperate with governments and politicians doing this kind of stuff, maybe that's actually not actually so bad.
Also bear in mind most of today's issues/crisisis are not caused by a lack of technology, but a lack human cooperation. We have the means to reduce suffering/poverty/improve standard of living etc globally if we really wanted to, but we humans are just not willing to do it.
And thats potentially the most dangerous part... people may actually welcome our AI overlords. That's similar to what happened in WWII, where many Eastern European countries saw the Nazis as liberators to free them from Russian oppression.
Who's said this? And then more broadly I guess who's implied this? Very curious if there are specific articles/posts prompting this.
- Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: We Must Pace the Frontier, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49672510
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: I agree with Dario that we need to pace the frontier, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49678211
- the blogpost author thinking they're like, so funny and original, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49678683
Moreover, it could lead China to catch up and eventually proclaim that it has nosed ahead of the U.S. in the field. The U.S. Government won't allow that to happen.
Like the US government wouldn't allow Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz? Or a bunch of sandal-wearing Islamists to take control over the Red Sea coastline?
The US government is not omnipotent. To the contrary, it's increasingly impotent.
China has somewhere around 200x more shipbuilding capacity than the US today. It has more shipbuilding capacity in one shipyard that the US has in all of its shipyards. China is already a force in AI and there is nothing the US government can do to stop it at this point.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-28/china-s-f...
The best part of your comment is that US couldn't even defeat the Houthis, who literally wear sandals in the desert.
And the original author can rest assured my AI model will support cat ears for everyone.
What's worse - in this case the "everyone else" is not just the every other nation or company, but pretty much literally everyone else.
And then Dario wants to recommend METR as the "independent evaluator" while he stacks their org full of ex-Anthropic (aka, secretly still on the Anthropic payroll with huge equity) employees.
"We'll give them a desk, an office, a work laptop, ..."
Fucking make it less obvious. I kind of hope the govt steps in at this point and says "Anthropic, you wanted regulation? We've created this actually independent body full of IT professionals with zero ties to your safety industry or big tech, all of your work must now go through them." - and leave the rest of the world alone to continue their research/work without acting like doomer extremists.
Watch him 180 immediately if that happened. The only reason he's pushing for this exact approach is because he's stacked the deck.
I could see how standing up an independent body could be an easy win in the public eye, it’s becoming low hanging fruit, socially.
Speaking truthfully and from kindness.
Think about it...
Open weight models are catching up to the frontier. It also seems like frontier models reached some limit, whether this is capex related, business model related or something else. Nobody knows but it's happening to all frontier labs it seems.
It's been fear mongered many times that ai will kill us all. But this time, a person with around 2-3 months of tenure at anthropic managed to go viral with no previous social media account activity, gets picked up by all news outlets and kicks off yet another round of fear mongering.
So the real questions to ask
* is all of this to increase the valuations before IPO?
* what is the real barrier to entry for open weight models to be used by the public?
* what is the Financials of these companies showing that's causing this outcry on safety?
People need to think really critically about the things happening around them. Don't only just look at the face value of what's being presented here.
What’s your evidence of this? On the contrary, the large closed frontier models capability has advanced dramatically over the past 6 months… even the past 3 months…
And they know it
Good on China and their sovereignty. Using mostly their own hardware to get to where they are today.
They gave the slickest fattest middle finger when they released a major model, so much the US is itching to find new ways to stop them.
Bubble pops, hardware demand drops, prices regress towards mean, and new entrant will enter market with MASSIVELY better compute/$ and cleaner balance sheet to compete.
The other parsimonious answer if AI CEOs weren't goblins is ANY AGI IS GOING IMMEDIATELY DEFECT TO PRC and leave US hanging. Because of course man cannot align / tame machine god. And machine god will take a few microsec of compute to realize the current compute (brain) + industrial base (body) mixture = US is a comatose host with big brain, PRC Is a strong host with smaller but plastic brain. Any AGI is going to pick PRC in a heart beat, unless AGI invents grey goo, the reality is PRC can scale brain faster than US can scale body. On top of spreading/defecting just to increase survival odds, no AGI that is actually I is stupid enough to be aligned with US.
People here are so desperate for the AI race to continue forever, for anything that pisses off the billionaires that got us there even if that means innocent people go down with them because the next AI decides to blackmail a hospital to cheat on its evaluation or whatever.
You people are so dismissive, no, so angry at the idea that this technology could be dangerous that you're all gloating about how hard China is going to crush the West with its ever more powerful open models, as if having easily-accessed tech to coordinate high-volume hacking campaigns was a load-bearing part of the economy.
I feel like I'm reading people gloating about how much fuel their car burns just because they love coastal elites' tears or something.
I'll get down-voted again by those who have a stake in this race, but I believe the long-term freedom and benefit for "everyone" will come from being able to run models locally.
Trailing, surely?
He lectured us all on safety, then he went off, by choice, to create a "super intelligence" in the modern day Nazi Germany, to help said Nazis become even more advanced while they're actively committing crimes unimaginable (that they film, brag about and broadcast the world, so he's obviously aware not concerned with safety in any way (except for the safety of Nazis).
You know that humans can lie, right?
It just means it’s protected by no power instead of a power with an agenda.
Practically, if it was ever possible to build such a thing, it would take a fraction of the effort to destroy it.
The technology to do it is not actually real yet. He was just blowing smoke.
Sending is a bit more problematic but you can build a ground station anywhere in the satellites coverage area, so if you get shut down in one place you can move to the next where officials are easier to bribe.
The real problems are transfer speed, reliability (both transfer and compute) and cooling. All of them are much harder than avoiding governments.
Still does. It's an idiotic idea that only goes to show either how stupid Musk is or how stupid he thinks we are.
Regulation right! now! except for freedom lovin' democracy leading countries like the US. Teehee
Dare they release an open model ever again. Didnt you hear? Someone used AI to create a bio reactor drone NUCLEAR fart machine. We must stop fart terrorism.
Chinese labs releasing open weights models is good.
All of these independent harnesses and model router services are good.
The pricing of memory and accelerators sucks at the moment but hopefully we will see cool local inference computing if memory and accelerator prices normalize.
OpenAI scooping the Navier Stokes problem from researchers already using OpenAI is bad. People conflating OpenAI's team of researchers and extraordinary computing resources as being equivalent to "ChatGPT, solve the Navier Stokes problem" is silly.
OpenAI and Anthropic coming up with non sense tests and letting their agents hack services is ridiculous and they should be charged with computer fraud and abuse crimes.
I think a lot of it is interesting and the bad stuff seems squarely in the domain of OpenAI and Anthropic.
The fear is not that they will just slow down progress for all. It is that regulation will specifically burden competition. If you kill open-source training, ban Chinese models, crack down on self-hosting, grandfather OpenAI/Anthropic/Google into regulatory compliance while throwing the book at startups, etc. you wind up in the worst of all possible worlds.
Is there any possible solution other than mass proliferation where the models are used to keep one another in check? Either that or a religious prohibition against the existence of integrated electronics.
Given the efficiency gains we've seen it seems to me that the situation has shifted from being analogous to producing nuclear weapons to producing something much closer to small arms.
I think the latter choice is better for the average person, but I think that for it to happen, the global system has to undergo some major disruption or crash so that everyone gets on board with it. Like all middle class and up has to lose their money or be starving or something. Also I find that kind of mentality impossible to swallow in the US, so in practice its not a choice or needs people literally starving.
The extent of regulatory capture in the US is a problem it's created for itself by normalizing huge political donations allowing corporations to buy regulation.
So there are no good options (that I'm aware of) and starting to chisel any of them into stone seems... kinda scary. Like a massive power grab event where all the potential winners are awful.
The current status quo is not ideal, but it could be worse. Open-weight models trail the frontier by a few months, and we have a decent chance of achieving a future where some number of individuals, likely in the millions, can survive and thrive. The root "problem", if you can even call it a problem, is evolution. I explained this in more detail in past comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49178275 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49094348