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Discussion Sentiment

64% Positive

Analyzed from 2372 words in the discussion.

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#nuclear#power#energy#reactors#cost#more#https#china#oil#don

Discussion (109 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews

jacquesm•about 1 hour ago
I've seen quite a few SMR proposals over the last couple of years and not a single one that dared to address the whole cycle from deployment to eventual decommission as a function of the total revenues - costs to operate. Most of these projects seem to be made to bilk investors or governments rather than to actually produce power. The day Italy produces the first KWh that is net profitable to the operators without counting subsidies I will be highly amazed, and that's assuming they get to operational in the first place.
asmodeuslucifer•about 1 hour ago
I agree, I tell everyone who will listen that no country, not Russia, China, Japan, France, USA etc has ever made nuclear power profitable. And you can't blame it on the environmentalists in China and Russia.

That being said, many countries consider it a national security issue not to be held hostage to foreign oil.

palata•11 minutes ago
Profit is not everything.

> That being said, many countries consider it a national security issue not to be held hostage to foreign oil.

Spot on. That, plus... peak oil.

asmodeuslucifer•44 minutes ago
Off topic, but this guy on youtube is a knowledgeable (pro-nuke) resource.

https://www.youtube.com/@tfolsenuclear

idiotsecant•24 minutes ago
What exactly does it mean for a powerplan in china or russia to be profitable?
EA-3167•44 minutes ago
China, Russia and the USA all have massive and vested interests in fossil fuels. In the US for example we’ve been subsidizing the everloving hell out of fossil, eroding regulations that would hold them accountable for externalities…

…and then people wonder why nuclear isn’t competitive. When you hold one thing under a microscope because “radiation” scares people, we end up with millions dead per year from air and water pollution due to fossil fuels.

nradov•18 minutes ago
China has some coal reserves but overall they're a major net fossil fuel importer. They're quite short of crude oil and natural gas reserves relative to demand. This is a serious national security risk which is why they've been rapidly electrifying their economy and building solar, nuclear, and hydro power plants (along with coal fired power plants).
lukan•34 minutes ago
People who know how much effort it takes to constantly measure and contain radioactivity and what a mess it is to mine for Uranium in the first place also don't wonder.

If not, reading a list of this helps:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_nuclear_disasters_and...

But sure, oil leaks can be bad as well. Solar leaks on the other hand seem bearable.

otherme123•21 minutes ago
China also? How is that? China is a big importer of oil, and is heavily burning coal (more than 50% their energy mix), that is also partly imported. They are fighting for a cleaner energy not because they are green but because they don't want to be dependent on imports, and some people even accuse them of undercutting solar panel pricing to get all the world market.

They are installing nuclear power like no other country (1 GW yearly since 2014), and Wikipedia says that 50% of all nuclear capacity being built is in China (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_by_country): 37 new reactors, followed by India with 6 and Russia, Egypt and Korea with 4. USA and France, which are both pro-nuclear or nuclear neutral, are building 0 reactors. But yeah, China has interests against nuclear power.

You are not helping your case by spreading misinformation and calling other people misinformed by making a strawman ("radiation scares people"). I am against nuclear (or rather not pro-nuclear) because it is not economically sound, because it is massively subsidized by Governments for the private sector to profit.

tremon•35 minutes ago
Why the myopic focus on profitability? Only one nation has succeeded in making healthcare profitable, please tell us how that has led to the best outcome for society?
jacquesm•15 minutes ago
Because for healthcare profit isn't a motive to begin with (or at least, it shouldn't be) and there aren't many different alternative sources for it either.
Al-Khwarizmi•37 minutes ago
Why does electricity need to be profitable? Are roads, justice systems, or armies profitable?
rjzzleep•24 minutes ago
Most electricity and infrastructure is profitable. But not after carving it out in a way that looks at it in complete isolation. Just like train infrastructure creates a lot of business around the area of the train infrastructure, even if the train itself may seem not self sustained.
palata•6 minutes ago
Sure, but then that's not "profitable" in the direct sense of "makes rich oligarchs richer".

I'm all for improving the quality of life for society. In the end the goal is to live well, not to destroy our living conditions for a few oligarchs to make more money. But "profitability" is not generally optimised like this, unfortunately.

sodacanner•26 minutes ago
I'm fairly sure that the total economic value that we get out of roads far exceeds the cost it takes to create and maintain them, yes. A similar argument can probably be made for justice systems and armies.

If a power generation system costs more to operate than the value of power we get out of it, it's probably not very useful. I think that's what we're talking about here.

palata•5 minutes ago
> If a power generation system costs more to operate than the value of power we get out of it, it's probably not very useful.

There is more than money. There is stability (not depending on foreign oil, peak oil, etc), there is climate change, etc.

dalyons•26 minutes ago
Those things you pay for indirectly via taxes. Electricity you pay for directly. you can build unprofitable economically uncompetitive power, like nukes, and your rates will go up. People tend not to like that, but you can do it.
SoftTalker•11 minutes ago
So the alternative is relying on solar panels made by a quasi-hostile country, because for some reason we can't produce them economically ourselves, or continuing to burn fossil fuels?
mynti•32 minutes ago
It does not. But there are so many sources that can be. And easily at that. So why go this route?
asmodeuslucifer•2 minutes ago
A lot of countries consider energy security national security, and national security always bats last.

A lot of countries also use it to help subsidize (or help cover up the costs of) their military nuclear programs.

jacquesm•15 minutes ago
Because in their wisdom the politicians have created energy markets.
Krasnol•19 minutes ago
They didn't because the taxpayers will finance that and no politician would be able to sell this.
Joel_Mckay•43 minutes ago
In most sunny places a decentralized per-home solar policy is cheap, sustainable, and more robust to severe local weather events.

While fission reactors are still the cheaper initial energy choice (like a future cancer patients love of cheap cigarettes.) Small Modular reactors are a fools errand for most places, as they have all the same security, labor, and maintenance issues of full sized installations. Thus, instead of repairing one of four turbines every few years, the contaminated components must now be reprocessed or safely hidden away on mass.

Maybe fine for submarines or aircraft carriers, but for massive infrastructure it is trivial to prove it causes major long-term problems.

Anyone that has ever purchased a property with an old leaky heating-oil tank nasty surprise site-reclamation cost... will understand the initial unit price never covers the actual clean up cost. =3

3astg•about 1 hour ago
Yes, it is part of Trump's tariff deals forced on e.g. Japan:

https://www.neimagazine.com/news/us-japan-in-smr-deal/

Italy should be buying proven French technology instead.

ViewTrick1002•36 minutes ago
Which proven French technology?

Given the outcome of Flamanville 3 and the that the proposed subsidies for the EPR2 fleet are ruinously expensive France is unable to build competitive new nuclear.

MadrasThorn•about 2 hours ago
>Rather than reviving the large reactors of the past, the government is focusing on small modular reactors, or SMRs, and other advanced technologies that supporters say could be safer, more flexible and quicker to build.

>The legislation does not authorize the construction of any reactors. Instead, it creates the regulatory foundation needed before future projects can be proposed, assessed and approved.

Giant step for SMRs. I'm hopefull for greater NATO collaboration regarding energy security if SMRs prove commercially viable.

orwin•about 1 hour ago
I don't understand why people are so bullish about SMRs. 25 years ago we were trying to increase reactor size and testing breeders, no we want smaller reactors, for what reason?
dguest•about 1 hour ago
I always thought it was about commoditization: sure a SMR might cost 10x more per watt in theory but if you can reliably roll them off the production line without having to redesign each iteration and without the cost overrunning by 10x, it pays for itself.
stephbook•about 1 hour ago
Still doesn't make sense. We could have standardized the old reactors too.

Radioactive material and a bit of water.. there's no reason to design those things a hundred times. France actually did that.

France is still shutting down its plants because the rivers are too warm in the summer. As for floating SMBs in the harbour, I don't think climate change will be kind to this idea.

_aavaa_•about 1 hour ago
It will reliably cost only 10x, and it theory it will roll of a production line.

The AP1000 reactors at Vogtle were explicitly marked for the modular construction as a key selling feature, which would reduce time and cost. It came out 20B over budget and 7 years late.

jacquesm•about 1 hour ago
There is no economic case for SMR that you couldn't make for a larger one with a massive benefit of economies of scale. SMRs are - in my opinion - a dead end, larger reactors could work well but will be delivered later and likely will still not be profitable on a KWh basis when compared to an equivalent installed base of solar and wind and will most likely be deliver much, much later.
dalyons•about 1 hour ago
A theory with a lot of leaps that is in no way guaranteed. But it’s a nice idea
oofbey•about 1 hour ago
Wright’s law is the only way to reduce costs. It’s a generalization of Moore’s law. The more of anything you build the cheaper it gets. Most products get 10% - 20% cheaper every time total production volume doubles. The most obvious example right now is rockets - launch costs are going down exponentially because we (SpaceX mostly) are doing so much of it we are finally getting economies of scale. SMRs will too, but only if they become popular. It’s a little bit of chicken and egg, but the economics are clear. If lots of people start using SMRs they WILL get cheap. And it’s a form factor where it’s plausible lots of people will.
gatio•about 1 hour ago
Prefab & faster construction possibilities would be a big one.
cyberax•43 minutes ago
Large reactors require unobtanium-class material engineering. Only a few companies in the _world_ can make large reactor vessels.

In contrast, SMRs are being sold as something that you can weld together in your garage and use them as a replacement for your water heater. And you don't need all those large containment structures and gigawatt-scale turbines.

This makes it much easier to get funding, as you don't need to show that you have a firm agreement with all the suppliers.

I don't like this at all, but it _might_ result in us regaining some experience in building nuclear power plants.

1209387•about 1 hour ago
Because Trump is pushing SMR on all "allies", UK, Japan, Italy:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgzevzwxwro

I couldn't find immediate investments from Kushner etc., but will dig further.

reddalo•about 1 hour ago
I'm Italian and I'm super happy with this.

The referendum that made nuclear energy illegal in Italy was held right after the accident of Chernobyl; people voted with their gut, not with their mind.

Curiously enough, some Italian town signs still have a small sub-sign reading "denuclearized municipality" (example: https://live.staticflickr.com/1421/712461235_e46a2c7db5_z.jp... )

icantevenhold•about 1 hour ago
As someone who thinks nuclear is both less efficient and much more expensive than renewable energies - would you mind sharing a bit why this makes you happy?

Since all plants in Italy are closed since the 90s won’t it take decades and billions of tax euros to get them back operational again?

sndcr•40 minutes ago
It’s not either or, you need both. We haven’t solved energy storage so renewables can’t be the only source of energy. If you look at Value-Adjusted Levelized Cost of Electricity (VALCOE) it changes the calculation quite a bit. We have negative energy prices a few times per year in Europe as it is.
ViewTrick1002•30 minutes ago
We’ve solved both. The research has moved on from VALCOE to whole system modeling. Including transmission, storage, backup, firming and modeling it hour by hour.

Studies are converging on renewable energy systems being cheaper in climates ranging from Australia to the Nordics:

Some recent ones:

Finland, 2025: nuclear scenarios 71–84% higher system cost; unrestricted least-cost optimization builds zero new nuclear. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422...

Denmark, 2026: system-level LCOE including storage, flexibility and system integration; renewables substantially cheaper than nuclear. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422...

Australia, CSIRO + AEMO GenCost 2025–26: whole-system modelling including transmission, storage and firming; renewables + storage remain the lowest-cost net-zero pathway. https://www.csiro.au/en/research/technology-space/energy/Ele...

thegabriele•about 1 hour ago
About the last question, i don't think the old plants will play any part in this eventual return.
icantevenhold•41 minutes ago
Fair - but using new (unproven) technology imo only increases the cost/time/risk overall?
gignico•44 minutes ago
The idea is to go to new-generation SMRs, not revive decades-old plants, which is actually impossible.
icantevenhold•42 minutes ago
Aren’t SMRs essentially unproven? I think only Russia and China built some working facilities, and the rest is still under construction.

I mean anything could happen but seems like a long shot

AlexandrB•37 minutes ago
Whether it's more expensive or not depends on how you measure "cost", and including intermittency and storage costs for renewables seems to favor Nuclear in many cases[1][2]. Based on real-world examples of countries that traded one for the other, like Germany, renewables look quite bad economically. I know there's a lot of hand waving about how this has to do with how electric auctions work, but this seems like a convenient excuse.

[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03605...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#...

icantevenhold•29 minutes ago
Thanks for sharing those links, very interesting.

I guess ultimately the nuclear vs renewables discussion is coloured a lot by feelings nowadays.

Resources like this help a lot to form a more nuanced understanding grounded in reality - but otoh I have to admit that a lot of this goes over my head - like even trying to understand how the economy works around this is mind boggling complex. I’ll need a deeper look to understand it better and build a more informed opinion tbh

someonebaggy•about 1 hour ago
It's cheaper if you stop caring about safety, right? In the USA it's now illegal for reactors to have adequate shielding - "as low as reasonably possible" is officially "woke"
adrianN•about 2 hours ago
It is sad that this has become a topic of the culture wars. Nothing good comes out of this, certainly not a rational weighing of the pros and cons of nuclear power.

I’m particularly interested in how they plan to finance reactors in a grid dominated by solar. I wouldn’t be surprised if they legally allow the building of new reactors but then fail to find investors.

toomuchtodo•about 2 hours ago
Time and demographics are also a component. Italy is old, has worker shortages for living wage work, and a new nuclear generator takes at least ten years to build. Each year, an additional 1TW of solar will be deployed globally, at a cost of ~12 cents/watt.
sajithdilshan•25 minutes ago
Hopefully Germany will follow next. It’s absurd that they rely on fossil fuel and coal when they can build modern nuclear plants that can provide stable energy for the energy heavy industries.

It would take 5-10 years to build the power plants and maybe with Chinese aid even faster

aeyes•7 minutes ago
I don't think that nuclear projects of any size could pass current environmental impact assessments.

Only a severe energy shortage could motivate politicians enough to temporarily skip these, like they did for the LNG terminals. But you can't build a nuclear power plant of any size within a single legislative period so its just not going to happen.

thisisauserid•41 minutes ago
So their plan to burn oil and keep the AC mandated no cooler than 24°C in their homes didn't work out? Huh.
epolanski•about 1 hour ago
> after voters *twice* rejected it in national referendums

Democracy is just lovely.

Have your citizens answer to a straightforward question on a topic twice, have them reject it, both times.

And the government will still go its way.

I'm not against nuclear per se, I'm just baffled at the "democratic" process.

icantevenhold•43 minutes ago
The government was elected by the people - if they disagree with this decision it will have consequences in the next election.

I think the public opinion and sentiment has changed quite significantly since 2011 when the last referendum was held.

The current Italian government is massively populist so they wouldn’t do this if they thought people would disagree.

I don’t see any problem with the democratic process here - sure it’s a flawed system but I believe it’s still the best we came up with so far

epolanski•20 minutes ago
I am not debating the benefits of democracy, rather how there's no democracy at all if a referendum is not legally binding and a government can disregard the result.
layer8•about 1 hour ago
The referendums were in 1987 and 2011, respectively. Asking once every 15+ years seems fine, the population changes and opinions change.

It’s much less frequent than the usual democratic election cycle, where people are also allowed to reevaluate their positions.

epolanski•18 minutes ago
> Asking once every 15+ years seems fine, the population changes and opinions change.

But nobody asked, there hasn't been a third referendum.

jltsiren•6 minutes ago
It doesn't work that way in Italy. A popular referendum can only abolish an existing law, partially or fully. The general public cannot vote to adopt new legislation.
eru•about 1 hour ago
Shouldn't people be allowed to change their minds?

A party can lose three election, and if they win the fourth, they still get into power.

ButlerianJihad•32 minutes ago
Presidente Giorgia Meloni is awesome and it’s amazing to see a woman empowered by the democratic process and serving the will of the Italian people

https://youtu.be/sNhPplje7xM?is=h5VtnMe9wva-VKGM

egorfine•about 2 hours ago
Nature is healing.