Back to News
Advertisement
Advertisement

⚡ Community Insights

Discussion Sentiment

40% Positive

Analyzed from 2161 words in the discussion.

Trending Topics

#oil#prices#war#trump#https#spr#iran#energy#republican#where

Discussion (120 Comments)Read Original on HackerNews

brightball•about 2 hours ago
Chart of strategic reserve levels since 1982, for context

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/41674/us-strategic-petroleum...

mahboi•about 1 hour ago
Beware the Y axis not starting at 0. But it's still an insane drop.

  Highcharts.charts.forEach(chart => { if (chart) chart.yAxis.forEach(axis => axis.update({ min: 0 })); });
hedora•about 1 hour ago
Though note that, for some reason, the last 250M barrels are not physically extractable from the SPR, and the red line has dropped to 284M.
safety1st•about 1 hour ago
The counterpoint is that the US is producing more crude domestically than ever with more efficient drilling technology:

https://www.oilmonster.com/article/more-productive-wells-spu...

Insofar as I can tell what's really reflected here is a difference between Democrat and Republican policy positions. The Democrats want to minimize domestic environmental impact and be a net oil importer. Let someone else handle the dirty work of drilling. The Republicans are less concerned with the environmental impact and want to increase exports, oil jobs and economic sovereignty. With higher domestic production and less dependence on foreign states, such a large petroleum reserve is unnecessary.

I prefer the Republican position. It sucks to harm the environment. But it sucks more to enable some of the regimes we import oil from. They frequently are not close allies. We frequently end up immersing ourself in wars and other entanglements over this foreign oil. You want to stop the wars, you have to stop the dependence on imported oil. (To be clear I'm not arguing that Republicans will start less wars, or are a more moral party. I am arguing in favor of domestic oil production because it removes a justification for war.)

The Democratic position exports the moral hazard to a place where Americans don't see it. Takes it out of their backyard. But frankly that is an immoral approach which both parties have taken repeatedly and it has undermined the health of the nation. The other case where this takes place at an absolutely massive scale is exporting certain types of jobs to other countries where labor standards are lax, and where slave labor takes place. People out there killed themselves while making iPhone or your shoes because the working conditions in those countries were so horrible. I am willing to pay a little more for shoes and buy a little bit fewer luxury goods so that I don't enable slave labor. Move the jobs back onshore where we can regulate the well being of the workers. We can't control it if it's in another country.

pstuart•about 1 hour ago
It looks like it started to plummet in April 2022, which was on Biden's watch (disclaimer: I voted for him). It apparently was in response to supply chain shocks spiking oil prices due to the start of the war in Ukraine.

Having the AI summarize the pros and cons of that action has valid points on both sides. But in his defense, that particular war was not of our doing, unlike the current war with Iran which was initiated impulsively.

partiallypro•about 1 hour ago
> that particular war was not of our doing

Well... arguably it is partially our doing. Not for the reason's Tucker Carlson & Russia say, but that Obama and later Biden totally sat on their laurels after the Crimean invasion, totally paralyzed by fear of escalation and political fallout.

hadlock•about 1 hour ago
Selling oil out of the SPR is the new One Weird Trick Military Planners Hate! Biden was a generally fine president, but pulling oil out of the SPR to balance the budget was an extremely ugly way to do it, and hopefully that loophole gets plugged going forward.
hedora•about 1 hour ago
Hopefully, it hits effective zero, and people start buying EVs.

As a bonus, maybe the military will stop wasting gasoline to murder civilians, since we’ve already established they value oil over absolutely everything else, including human life.

Gigachad•about 1 hour ago
Trump spoke about this publicly, promising he would "fill the reserves right up to the top", then when in power, didn't do that but instead started a war with Iran while the reserves were still low.

It's mind boggling how stupid it all is.

Insanity•about 1 hour ago
:s/it all/he
Avicebron•about 2 hours ago
Yikes.
King-Aaron•about 2 hours ago
That is just mind boggling.
thelastgallon•33 minutes ago
When oil prices spike, where does the money go? https://theconversation.com/when-oil-prices-spike-where-does...

Its possible Oil price might go higher. Oil Prices Ignore the Warning Signs in Physical Markets: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Ignore...

thelastgallon•about 1 hour ago
Global oil prices haven't skyrocketed so far thanks to China inverting the OPEC strategy of keeping prices up by destroying supply.

China stopped/reduced buying, used their large reserves, EVs and now accelerating EV trucks. And also coal to liquids.

Eventually, China may have to start buying and thats when the fun begins.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/business/energy-environme...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Chinas-Renewable-Boom-Masks...

China is now the world’s great oil power. Forget OPEC. The Chinese Communist Party calls the shots. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49238158

rkagerer•43 minutes ago
How quickly could it realistically be replenished if some kind of detente were reached and supply roughly returned to where it is was? Would replenishment contribute significantly to price pressure?
kalleboo•41 minutes ago
I imagine pretty slowly because it's not just the US drawing down their reserves but every country, and everyone is going to want to replenish it at the same time.
0cf8612b2e1e•12 minutes ago
Indeed. The global production was closely aligned with consumption. Even if everything became normal tomorrow, there just isn’t enough slack capacity to make up for the loss over anything but years.

The Strait was moving 20M bpd. Say with some over production and clever rerouting, the world was only at a 10M bpd deficit. This has been happening for six months now or 180x10M bpd = 1800M barrels that were never taken out of the ground.

YZF•36 minutes ago
It does contribute to price pressure. The knowledge that the US has to buy oil to replenish will keep prices higher.
bix6•about 1 hour ago
So seriously, what is the administrations intention here? They’ve used all the missiles and drained all the gas. Are they trying to get the U.S. invaded?
King-Aaron•about 1 hour ago
Project 2025 fairly implicitly stated that the idea was to scuttle trust in the US government so badly that there would be a case for private equity to swoop in and save the day. That's what you're seeing.
parineum•about 1 hour ago
Project 2025 can be anything you want it to be.
phendrenad2•about 1 hour ago
[delayed]
partiallypro•about 1 hour ago
It's actually shocking that so many comments don't know that the biggest draw -by far- happened under the Biden administration largely as a result of the Ukrainian War. In 2020 when the SPR wasn't full and oil was literally negative, Congress blocked the administration from buying oil to fill it. Instead they used the SPR for short term storage for oil companies (which was not the administration's original proposal.)

I get the Iran war part (though the bigger issue there is middle distillerates rather then crude atm), but people were screaming about the SPR drawdown, and lack of buying for 4 years before Trump ever got back into office; and it fell completely on deaf ears.

edg5000•about 1 hour ago
> In 2020 when the SPR wasn't full and oil was literally negative, Congress blocked the administration from buying oil to fill it

Why???

toomuchtodo•about 1 hour ago
Keep fuel prices low enough using the SPR to try to not lose at midterms. They don’t care what happens after, just as they don’t care about their constituents losing their Medicaid.

The cost of putting unsophisticated grifters in the ultimate position of power.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(Green New Deal via incompetence)

bawolff•about 1 hour ago
If you want to be unreasonably sympathetic to the trump admin, they could be assuming that iran et al are trying to hold out until the election on the belief that that might change something (see also the timing of houthi offensive and attacks on saudi arabia), and that if trump get over the hump of the election, iran no longer has a way to affect anything short term and will throw in the towel as they lack the ability to hold out long term.

Personally i think trump does not have a plan, but if you tried to sanewash it, i think that is the best rationale i've been able to find.

nl•about 1 hour ago
I think the general interpretation that both sides think something will change after the midterms is reasonable.

But

> Iran et al are trying to hold out until the election

> [Iran will] throw in the towel as they lack the ability to hold out long term

is something that I don't think even the most thoughtless parts of the administration really think right?

It's obvious that Iran is winning, not close to throwing in the towel. The US is reduced to trying to get the Straights of Hormuz open without paying a toll to Iran, which is a worse position than the US was in at the start of the war.

mahboi•about 1 hour ago
Shouldn't they at least care about the presidential election 2 years after that?
rectang•about 1 hour ago
There have been Republican elected representatives who have confronted Trump. With very few exceptions, they have gone down to defeat in subsequent Republican primary elections.

The Republican electorate will not stand for Trump being constrained or criticized by Republicans. That's why there are almost no remaining Republican elected officials who are willing to confront the Trump administration aside from a handful of lame ducks like Tillis and Massie.

Functionally, the Republican congress is unable to hold the Trump administration to account, because Republican voters have ensured that it cannot. The only way Trump will ever be constrained is via Democrats.

platevoltage•about 1 hour ago
At this point I think they're planning on letting Democrats sweep the midterms, having things get even worse over the next 2 years, which is inevitable, and blaming the entire thing on Democratic obstruction. Their voters are dumb enough to believe it.
toomuchtodo•about 1 hour ago
Why? He can’t run again or will die of natural causes, and the cult support goes with him when he goes.

https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/727604522156228608

> If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it. —- Lindsey Graham, May 3, 2016

kraken_cult•about 1 hour ago
They aren't winning the midterms with this. Hopefully the grifter hopefuls will take the lesson to heart.
idiotsecant•about 1 hour ago
SPR cannot meaningfully lower prices at the pump. It's simply not big enough. The only thing that does that is an end to the war.
bawolff•about 1 hour ago
Also price of oil isn't the only factor. Refineries going offline is a major factor in price at the pump, and there are a lot of refineries in the middle east. Its not just the price of unrefined oil.
toomuchtodo•about 1 hour ago
Certainly, just like the Treasury is attempting to manipulate debt costs with their bond market interventions. Both are illusions of effort, both ineffective.

“Extend and pretend.” Luckily, we’re almost out of runway, both with oil and the bond market. Natural consequences are required to encourage improved outcomes.

(The war will not end until Iran decides to end it, just as Ukraine can lob drones at Russian refineries and oil terminals forever)

treis•about 1 hour ago
Most of the draw down was after Russia invaded Ukraine. This drawdown is a swap of 1 barrel now for 1.25 barrels later. So the intention is to keep prices down now and get more oil back later for "free".
Ifkaluva•about 1 hour ago
And winter is coming
gpt5•about 1 hour ago
Crude oil demand peaks in summer, not winter
davidw•about 1 hour ago
I am frankly a bit bewildered by all this. The US administration lies and lies. The Iranians lie. Doomers keep talking about how gas prices will skyrocket "in two weeks". Occasionally the "everything is fine, nothing to see here" folks wheel out some journalist saying there will be a peace deal any day now.

It's pretty difficult to figure out what the reality is besides "not good".

hedora•about 1 hour ago
Diesel touched $8.99/gal this week. I want to know what happens when the sign runs out of digits at $10.

Is it tied to the cash register? Will the pumps run out of digits too? Will they still be able to sell gas?

One thing I can say: My F150 won’t care. It runs off solar.

ghurtado•about 1 hour ago
> . I want to know what happens when the sign runs out of digits at $10.

If you liked Y2K, you're gonna love 2.2f!

BugsJustFindMe•about 1 hour ago
You mean 2.3.
bawolff•about 1 hour ago
If anyone knew for sure they would make a killing at the stock market.

However we dont know what the future holds. All sorts of factors affect what is going to happen. Will china continue to import less? Will the houthis be able to stop Saudi exports long term or is it just a short term issue? Will USA be able to guard ships passing through the strait? Will Iran face some sort of internal collapse? Will USA pack up and go home? Will other countries be drawn into this war?

Nobody can tell you what is really "going on" because nobody knows what the future holds and uncertainty is high.

yanhangyhy•about 1 hour ago
how about the oil from Venezuela?
tmellon2•17 minutes ago
We can simply get rid of most oil - Just ONE square mile of batteries and a TOTAL of 100 x 100 square miles of Solar can power the entire USA 24/7.

It is because of world wide adoption of EVs that the fossil fuel demand has reduced and stabilized gas prices in the US.

See : https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/batteries-have-unlo...

thelastgallon•about 1 hour ago
It will need 10s - 100s of billions of investment. By the time they start producing, demand would have been permanently destroyed, thanks to China supplying the world with EVs and solar panels. With sufficient demand destruction, oil should be priced like salt, a simple commodity that nobody ever cares about the price.

Oil companies are not super keen on investing and increasing supply, it will destroy profits.

Turning Oil Into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice: https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/6963043-turning-oil-i...

mrdependable•about 1 hour ago
Will take years to make productive if anyone is even willing to invest in it.
monster_truck•44 minutes ago
It's completely incompatible with the SPR
tehjoker•39 minutes ago
It's sour crude that requires special infrastructure that our oil companies don't even want to bother investing in. They told Trump as much, he still kidnapped President Maduro, who is as far as I know, still in New York City.
andriy_koval•about 1 hour ago
looks like gasoline will skyrocket very soon very badly..
conductr•about 1 hour ago
As has been predicted for months, I don’t recall where i read it but November has been in my brain for when this crisis is going to start.
consensus1•about 1 hour ago
The headline is hiding the fact that this was a fairly modest 400K bbl draw for the week.
hedora•about 1 hour ago
The reserve is effectively empty at 250M-300M barrels, and currently sits at 284M. The rapid deceleration to 400K could mean that there’s no quick way to keep withdrawing the remaining reserves.
za3faran•about 1 hour ago
Brought to you by the epestein war
Advertisement
dyauspitr•about 1 hour ago
They’ve ruined us.
CamperBob2•about 1 hour ago
He is indistinguishable from an attack by hostile foreign agents. A very successful attack.
drTobiasFunke•about 1 hour ago
Thos year’s drop is terrible, but we know the reason. Anybody know why the big drop in 2021-22?
nl•about 1 hour ago
The Biden administration (and other countries around the world in the International Energy Agency) released reserves to try to stabilize the spikes in prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

> On March 1, 2022, Secretary Granholm announced that the U.S. and its partners in the International Energy Agency (IEA) would release a total of 60 million barrels of oil onto the world market. [snip] In total, DOE released 180 million barrels of crude oil into the market.

https://www.energy.gov/hgeo/opr/history-spr-releases (look at 2022 IEA Coordinate Release)

atmavatar•about 1 hour ago
It looks like there was a slow drop-off from about 2017 onward. The big drop started early 2022, likely related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
rootusrootus•about 1 hour ago
Same reason as today, trying to counter high energy prices.
vkou•about 1 hour ago
Trump got all the oil producers together in a room and put together a deal to restrict oil production during COVID.

This, naturally, resulted in higher oil prices, which the Republican party blamed Biden for.

They truly have no shame.

edg5000•about 1 hour ago
But why?
parineum•about 1 hour ago
Simple, he made it up.
tmellon2•about 1 hour ago
We can simply get rid of most oil - Just ONE square mile of batteries and a TOTAL of 100 x 100 square miles of Solar can power the entire USA 24/7.

It is because of world wide adoption of EVs that the fossil fuel demand has reduced and stabilized gas prices in the US.

See : https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/batteries-have-unlo...