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An economist might counter that any such business would loose market share. But, in actuality, a lot busineses are not competing for survival or even for market share but have it due to entrenchment. examples include: ISPs, healthcare, etc
1. "Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half." - John Wanamaker
It has exploded, the explosion just isn't evenly distributed. And just as it was wit the internet, most people and even most industries are not actually using it yet. Many that are are using it in name only.
People can star github repos and signup their employees for a new subscription quickly, real adoption takes far longer.
There's the meme that the smartest people in the world are figuring out how to show ads. It's no different this time around. I understand that not everyone working on AI is building an ad network - but ultimately it feels like that's the end result.
It didn't feel quite this way 15 years ago. Back then, it felt much more tangible how technology was improving our lives. It is sort of tangible now too - I am doing things with AI that I otherwise couldn't. But somehow if feels like progress for the sake of progress.
And to be honest, it doesn't feel like the progress is for me or the people I care about.
However, lately, I have had several experiences that have completely changed my mind - the here is a high level goal (involving gathering production logs, setting up an eval, running tests, iterating, including diagnosis and coming up with new ideas, etc. and don’t bother me until it’s done. The experience has been incredible.
This has been possible because the agent has a way to iterate and hillclimb against a metric it can measure. Relatively easy in the world of software.
I’m now convinced that we will unlock the same gains once make other domains similarly “iterable”.
Eg Agent comes up with 100 new proteins, runs in lab autonomously, gathers results, iterates. One month (or whatever) later, you have your new protein designed.
Last night I was able to give claude a task and they increased the classification accuracy from
81.3/89.9/92.1 to 90.9/99.3/99.6
In a little over 2 hours. In a task that up until opus 5.5 I was doing by hand/manually. and the day before was able to get the first results.
The intelligence explosion may just be user error.
Why say this? Well, of the plausible futures from here, the worst one is where AI plateus just good enough to make us all useless (or just destroy the pipeline of a critical mass of capable humans for assisted RSI), but at a point dumb enough that we don't get human-superior AI. This might happen or not, but there's no way to predict when something that doesn't exist will, so it's one of those horrors that can keep you up at night. Some of those skeptical about RSI have likened it to the Great Filter.
They are not. Our problems are akin to cellular automata, and just the same. We can project a few steps forward but we cannot say this configuration will evolve to that configuration.
Eugenics is similar; the belief that we can measure physical chatacteristics and selectbased on the same for some desirable future configuration is just a self delusion.
Orboids in a swarm the whole does not direct the sum.
These are all basics that humans struggle against. AI will just head in adirection, and itll be as meaningless as an automata swarm. Youll recognize payterns but they wont make you sure of the next step.
We are going to be stuck in a few years of delusion, but there will be some entertainment as a side effect. AI executives and researchers are going to delve even deeper into AI psychosis thinking that the equivalent of psychedelic trip-looking school buses at 4000x zoom of an orange cat's ass, except in the form of text, is actually something intelligent and we just don't have the capacity to understand the "super intelligence's thoughts", all the while pouring another few trillions.
Asking where is the intelligence explosion suffers the same issue as the Gorman Paradox[1] - the question proceeded the explosion by six months. Timing explosions is like timing the market - infinitely harder than predicting eventual existence.
1. https://codemanship.wordpress.com/2025/12/14/the-gorman-para...